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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah were definitely not done with this system, a few more ticks of that TPV piece toward the GLs and more of NC is definitely in business, it would probably mean a flatter system as well
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If this storm keeps on trending in the right direction do you think sc can get in on it as well or is this only a nc storm only
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB sticking to his guns, He's be saying this pretty much all week...........

No Changes to Double shot threat Nebraska to NJ idea.

FWIW-His comment about the GFS,
Remember the statement made on the Avenger on number 1 a week ago when the GFS was trying to run it up into the lake, that if it went to Detroit or Dayton, it would still go off Delaware. That is pure pattern recognition and understanding the GFS is never going to change as you can tinker all you want with a model and upgrade it but if its missing something, it will still make the same errors. The model is usually too far north in blocks a week or so out, then too far south as something gets closer ( 3-5 days),
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JB said a week ago this storm this week would go north while all the models showed us getting hammered.
 
There is no low level cold air source at all now. Personally I think this one is finished unless somehow the high can build in as it did before yesterday's runs, which appears not possible now. Tracking slop on the backside is almost always a losing proposition.
 
I guess this upgrade isn't much of an upgrade. GFSv16 moved towards the GFS. In my opinion, I think this storm is toast now for most of NC. The EURO/UKMET is a hard combo to beat. Maybe I'll be wrong.

GFS_PrecipType&Rate_MA_2021-01-24_12Z_FHr120_PW.png
 
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Stormdoc said:
I don’t have any doubt this can trend further south with the TPV. The issue is, can it still maintain its strength, or are we left with a weak storm over us that cannot generate enough lift like the Euro?
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Yeah, that's a great point. Even if we get it to trend South, which almost never happens, are we even going to have much of a storm system? Both the EURO and UKMET are showing weak systems.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
That wrap around moisture seems like it’s going to mean buisness .. again like I said yesterday if this thing stays north that’s the feature we are going to want to watch for snow here in NC ..
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Exactly. If I were living in the northeast quadrant of NC, I certainty wouldn't be giving up with this storm yet.
 
Broken024 said:
At least this is showing up
View attachment 67243
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Yep. 12z GFS says we’ll be chasing another pattern change at the end of the first week of February. Let’s just hope this one happens. The mid/late January prediction by the models failed miserably.


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Always prefer snows fallen 1st half met winter. They have more staying power,hang around longer. As we roll through the last week of Jan into Feb,the sun angle starts to get up on higher in the sky noticeably each passing day. Maybe we can pull the rabit out of the hat and catch one of those late winter,early spring bombs like 1980,1993. Ive avoided the shutout, glad to say never expierenced one. However its been since December 2018 since weve had a good snowstorm in my county. The patience is probably gonna have to last atleast 10 more months. Dont see anything promising past this weeks longshot thats fading away. Good news is I dont see any reason the season can be written off yet eitheir. Usually mid Feb you can see,have a good enough feel LR whether or not to throw in the towel.
 
If Virginia north scores we can almost bank on a cad event ice storm with MTN snow IMO. I’m rooting for a blizzard for Virginia-West Virginia areas with this first system.
 
Need a few runs like this to put NC back in the driver seat, but we've clearly made a move thus far on the 12z suite to make that happen down the line

After last night's runs, we were basically looking at the football-equivalent of being down 2 scores late in the 3rd quarter and the other team got the ball back and was driving down the field poised to score a touchdown. These run over run changes on the GEFS, GFS, & other models on today's 12z runs have basically indicated that the opposing team went into the red zone & failed to score any points & now we got the ball back with a minute or two left in the 3rd quarter. Gotta go down and score a TD here on this possession (i.e. this trend needs to continue over the next few runs)

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Would be the most 2021 thing if we lost a warm day to a wedge, smh View attachment 67257View attachment 67258View attachment 67259
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Seriously , I mean seriously . I can’t with this anymore man . Another wedge more cold rain and 50s while you enjoy warmth . This is backwards . Atlanta and Charlotte have mean maxes under 70 in January 81-10 believe it or not ! Raleigh though has a mean max of 72 81-10 in January . Yet we get screwed , I don’t believe in CAD anymore . Doesn’t seem to affect the areas you would think it does , instead Raleigh in the border of the coastal plain is the most CAD prone . The heck.
 
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