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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
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The pattern doesn't seem great at all with a -pna and the southeast ridge poking up. Honestly our prime pattern doesn't seem to be lasting very long. Hopefully we can get the west ridge to come back on the coast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The appearance of Barents Sea troughing is usually the prelude to Indian Ocean convection and associated w/ phase 1 (W hem) MJO, it's actually a sign that Indian Ocean forcing is fixing to return. On the flip side, the later we get into winter, the less unfavorable Indian Ocean forcing is to us.

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Off topic but doesn’t this eventually allow a active severe season out west towards the plains in spring ? Just wanted to know since I’m headed west this year, I’m not as sure how the MJO relates to severe weather vs wintertime, I remember HM saying maritime forcing would probably arrive by February as well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Off topic but doesn’t this eventually allow a active severe season out west towards the plains in spring ? Just wanted to know since I’m headed west this year, I’m not as sure how the MJO relates to severe weather vs wintertime, I remember HM saying maritime forcing would probably arrive by February as well
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It helps at least give us a good pattern for severe in the southern plains & Dixie Alley late winter, however of all major wx phenomena, severe is the most weakly correlated w/ large-scale circulation regimes and must be interpreted w/ extreme caution
 
Rain Cold said:
Both scenarios are possible. The last few years where we've seen these overrunning setups play out, we've predominantly rained, as the cold core remained west. This year, we'll allegedly have the NAO, which will hopefully suppress the SE ridge enough to allow for better cold air drainage into the SE. We'll see how it plays out.

Eta: I'm optimistic as long as the PNA doesn't go too negative. A well-placed block of sufficient strength can counter it to an extent. Hopefully our good -NAO is real.
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This 1000%. I think as long as the Pacific isn't acting in a destructive manner to the -NAO we are ok, it's just when the Pacific jet has been on raging roids like it has the past month that it becomes impossible to get the polar jet to buckle enough to allow cold air to dislodge deep into the U.S.
 
Rain Cold said:
This looks Iike finally cold air might not be a problem. :)
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Let's get the mean to look similar, not the control and we'd be good. I don't know, I guess we can be good, but really don't want any ridging in the southeast or on the east coast. That's all we've had the last 10 years, and id like to see a change. Rooting for the EPS.
 
SnowNiner said:
This is what really annoys me. Cold air blasting into the conus......except the south east because of the South East ridge, west Atlantic ridge, etc. Always a thorn in our side. Seeing it come back as early as the 20th is ticking me off a bit I admit. Hopefully rhis is wrong.

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Modeling beyond 7 days is highly questionable as much as I want/don’t want to believe it. Also we don’t want to be obliterated by the PV and have everything go to the shredder.


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