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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Storm track on the NAM is clear as day. The low level cold air mass was THE reason the storm was further south along the wedge front. Without the high, that front is much further north and thus the low track WILL be further north.

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sdm47 said:
Storm track on the NAM is clear as day. The low level cold air mass was THE reason the storm was further south along the wedge front. Without the high, that front is much further north and thus the low track WILL be further north and that is not debatable.

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The energy in the north is not going to allow the track to be further north. As it pushes further and further south so will the Low.
 
iGRXY said:
The energy in the north is not going to allow the track to be further north. As it pushes further and further south so will the Low.
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This is not correct.

Let's take a look. First, let's look at the H5 setup from the 00z run on 1/22 when NC got crushed.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh150-168.gif

Now look at today's 12z run. There's very little difference in the track of the shortwave.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh108-126.gif

So what changed? The low level cold air mass and wedge front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150-168.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh108-126.gif

gfs_Td2m_us_fh150-168.gif


gfs_Td2m_us_fh108-126.gif
 
sdm47 said:
This is not correct.

Let's take a look. First, let's look at the H5 setup from the 00z run on 1/22 when NC got crushed.

View attachment 67295

Now look at today's 12z run. There's very little difference in the track of the shortwave.

View attachment 67296

So what changed? The low level cold air mass and wedge front.

View attachment 67298

View attachment 67299

View attachment 67300


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Yep agreed. That screwed up the great run from a couple of days ago. Now I’m not sure how it can evolve to get back on track. I think a weak sauce event like the 18z icon is on the table if that low keeps dropping south...just my naive guess though.
 
metwannabe said:
Not to sound selfish but a couple of us only need a 50-75 mile southward shift modernweeniemodernweenie
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I said 60 last night for you. Its more like 30 now. But no doubt you and the pit county, NE coastal plain guys are inches from a perfect smackdown. This rapid deepening right off coast, without fighting waa is a huge, very rare opportunity. Someone coastal plain VA,NE NC is gonna score a big one here.
 
KyloG said:
Yep agreed. That screwed up the great run from a couple of days ago. Now I’m not sure how it can evolve to get back on track. I think a weak sauce event like the 18z icon is on the table if that low keeps dropping south...just my naive guess though.
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Yeah I'm not discounting some slop or crap event, but I think the big snow is off the table. I can't see any way that stupid low gets out of the way and allows our high to build in and without it, we are counting on backside snow which usually ends in disappointment. Maybe a few in northeastern NC score something here, but most of us are going to be left out in the cold rain I'm afraid. Just frustrating, because I really think we had a hit for at least a large portion of NC lined up before that wrench got thrown.
 
NCSNOW said:
I said 60 last night for you. Its more like 30 now. But no doubt you and the pit county, NE coastal plain guys are inches from a perfect smackdown. This rapid deepening right off coast, without fighting waa is a huge, very rare opportunity. Someone coastal plain VA,NE NC is gonna score a big one here.
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The guy in Goldsboro Maryland ( eastern shore of Maryland ) looks to be in a sweet spot . Chincoteague va may not be a bad spot either .
 
It’s the only way at this point we can do it, so let’s continue this trend SE with that piece of the TPVE9140E42-072C-46C4-8811-BA44AF6C5CC9.gif
 
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But at this point that low up north of the lakes is in the worst possible spot....if that would slide SE quicker.

gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp-1781200.png
 
The HP is fighting like crazy to slide in there but that fn low is a menace.

EPS looks toasty to start Feb...I'm ready for some highs in the 60's and low in the 40's at night.

gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp-1813600.png
 
sdm47 said:
Really hard to get over this one. We had a big dog and one stupid thing is literally blocking us from getting it. We will probably get some random 1" in the middle of Feb or March in-between weeks in the 70s.
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Yep...in 2018 we get things to go are way. In other winters, we get this. Sucks...why I'm ready for some spring weather but with cool nights.
 
We are a few tweaks away from something still in NC something tells me we haven’t seen the final product with this thing... 100+ hours out still and people don’t think this changes more?
 
sdm47 said:
I hope this upper low does keep shifting southeast just to prove it won't matter.
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Yeah because if the low goes southeast with it comes more cold air and confluence than we ever had before, but no we definitely don’t want that. There’s a good reason you’ve been on my ignore list for a while now
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah because if the low goes southeast with it comes more cold air and confluence than we ever had before, but no we definitely don’t want that. There’s a good reason you’ve been on my ignore list for a while now
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Same. You have no idea what you're talking about. You've consistently demonstrated a lack of basic knowledge of synoptic meteorology and your posts are worthless. Stop responding to me.
 
sdm47 said:
Same. You have no idea what you're talking about. You've consistently demonstrated a lack of basic knowledge of synoptic meteorology and your posts are worthless. Stop responding to me.
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Yeah says the dude who’s trying to talk to a well established meteorologist with 2 degrees who’s spent most of his career studying winter storms in nc. I think now would be a good as good of a time as ever for you to start reading more and posting less because your takes and analysis are horrible
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah says the dude who’s trying to talk to a well established meteorologist with 2 degrees who’s spent most of his career studying winter storms in nc. I think now would be a good as good of a time as ever for you to start reading more and posting less because your takes and analysis are horrible
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I have more of everything than you do, so I'd suggest you stand down padawan.
 
I gotta be honest these constantly disappointing winters are becoming almost emotionally exhausting. Feels like we go through this every year now. I realize things can change but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to be optimistic about any winter wx for NC. A couple of days ago some modeling had the majority of the snow in SC and the southern piedmont. Now it looks like we get to watch the MA get plastered, like always. I’m defeated you all.


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headed the other way with pushing that TPV piece has introduced some really cold air at H85 closer, we need it to keep going that way and somehow get a more southern track with the cutoff, just a little bit more south helps, 2 more ticks of this and it starts wrapping in this really cold air aloft 607D886A-22AF-451E-A44B-CD56D09C3BCE.gif
 
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