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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
headed the other way with pushing that TPV piece has introduced some really cold air at H85 closer, we need it to keep going that way and somehow get a more southern track with the cutoff, just a little bit more south helps, 2 more ticks of this and it starts wrapping in this really cold air aloft View attachment 67323
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Huh that’s funny because a certain someone just said a few minutes ago that TPV moving SE doesn’t matter? Oops! Guess it does after all!
 
sdm47 said:
He doesn't. I'm sorry, but anyone who doesn't acknowledge that high pressure is needed in a majority of southeastern U.S. winter storms has no idea what they are talking about. Sorry to burst your bubble.
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Here’s your HP. There’s also some who think a HP has to be sitting over upstate NY for cold air to funnel down. As you see pictured here, a 1041 in the Midwest is doing fairly well and trending better.

1611441794662.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh that’s funny because a certain someone just said a few minutes ago that TPV moving SE doesn’t matter? Oops! Guess it does after all!
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Wow, look at that cold air being delivered sans high pressure like the amateur said it would be. But we don't need a high to inject cold ahead of a storm do we?

gfs_Td2m_us_19.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty big medium range changes here, since that TPV is getting closer, it’s filtering in colder air aloft more View attachment 67330
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Probably for the better this piece of PV got involved, even though we had to suffer thru a few cycles of atrocious runs even to get to this slightly better but still less than ideal juncture. We can get a much bigger storm now overall if we can put the pieces in right place. It just needs to get out in front of our wave a bit more.
 
sdm47 said:
Yet a furnace at the surface because of no high pressure.

View attachment 67331
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I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
 
For a moment there I thought they shut down this thread for good. Glad they didn't. But for real, let's try to treat each other better. It's been a rough year for many of us. We all deserve respect, even if we happen to disagree with someone else's perspective. Although, it's probably best not to argue with an actual Met or a moderator. Just sayin'.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
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You've got to get it way out front though. I'm not sure if that's doable
 
If the TPV continues shifting south, we may see a weaker/flatter look like the ICON has IMO. The chance of it shearing the energy out and preventing a bomb is pretty high. I just don’t see a way at this point to shift the system south enough without also shearing it out into a weaker wave like the ICON has.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know you don’t like this route, but if we continue to move that TPV south it’ll eventually bring colder sfc temps and overall suppress the system, it’s probably the reason why each run is cooling down around here, and especially towards the GLs
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That would require an extreme solution. Nothing is impossible - but we aren't even in the ballpark of being close and that seems highly improbable that the magnitude of changes needed are going to happen inside of 4 days. I hear ya, you got to root for something and why not, there's nothing else to do other than root or cry, so by all means I'm rooting for it too. But as it stands now, it isn't even close IMO.
 
snowlover91 said:
If the TPV continues shifting south, we may see a weaker/flatter look like the ICON has IMO. The chance of it shearing the energy out and preventing a bomb is pretty high. I just don’t see a way at this point to shift the system south enough without also shearing it out into a weaker wave like the ICON has.
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Find a way to phase the lakes wave in, close your eyes/cross your fingers and hope for the best
 
SD said:
Find a way to phase the lakes wave in, close your eyes/cross your fingers and hope for the best
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Yeah, that's the wing and a prayer option. Probably about a 5% chance of it happening but better than 0 I guess...
 
I’ll likely be working remotely somewhere in the MA 2nd half of this week, a little too early for sure but a possible sub 990 off the VA Capes has my attention. Early call would be CHO.
 
ryan1234 said:
For a moment there I thought they shut down this thread for good. Glad they didn't. But for real, let's try to treat each other better. It's been a rough year for many of us. We all deserve respect, even if we happen to disagree with someone else's perspective. Although, it's probably best not to argue with an actual Met or a moderator. Just sayin'.
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Great points. Agree ?. Fortunately I haven't done any of those.
 
ryan1234 said:
I gotta be honest these constantly disappointing winters are becoming almost emotionally exhausting. Feels like we go through this every year now. I realize things can change but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to be optimistic about any winter wx for NC. A couple of days ago some modeling had the majority of the snow in SC and the southern piedmont. Now it looks like we get to watch the MA get plastered, like always. I’m defeated you all.


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The models are horrible past 5 days. Pretty much the only thing they can get right around here is sunny and dry or rain. When it comes to snow and storms they have been awful the past couple of years in the medium range and just get worse every year. People laugh when I say it's harder to get snow here because it just doesn't work as often as it used to even when the pattern is one that produced a lot in the past, but it is true.
 
The SER on the LR 18z GFS for 1st week of Feb is the type legends are made of, in the hall of fame all time SER folklore.
We better get some miracle voodoo working on this crushing snowstorm thats gonna pass a lot us by to the north by less than 70-100 miles. Cause after this week the punter might be coming out and punting to atleast mid Feb. Which leaves a lot of us a 3 week window to beat the extended daylight Army.
 
Notice the trend in the sfc low near the Aleutian Islands, from basically no storm to a bomb in a couple days of 12z ECMWF runs. I think this has at least something, if not a lot to do w/ the trends we've been seeing on NWP of late towards a more amped storm and western US ridge/more +PNA at day 5-6 and also could be playing a role in enticing our TPV lobe to slide further east and south more quickly in today's model runs. Oth I am honestly a lot less sure about this latter point & that could be a reach on my end. Downstream development from this powerful extratropical cyclone and the coincident ridge in the N Pacific is certainly at least affecting the pattern immediately upstream of our storm over the western US and I think the more amped GFS solutions are probably closer to reality here barring exceptional shearing by the TPV over SE Canada.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_fh72_trend (1).gif
 
That TPV moving more SE isn't the only thing changing on more recent GFS runs... the trough offshore is also poking a little bit further west... clearly already doing work on the ridging ahead of our shortwave. Another day of shifts like these shown would probably bring this storm back for NC, but the real question is whether we get those shifts. I think it's not likely but possible; that Baffin bay block has clearly proven already to be a pretty difficult forecast, so it's feasible that enough uncertainty in the current setup still exists for us to capitalize on.
gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh108_trend.gif
 
Look at the run-over-run increasing amplification in the N Pacific storm track thanks in part to the stronger extratropical cyclone near the Aleutians. Also notice the stronger ridge over Alaska (-EPO tendency), might be part of the reason why our PV lobe has decided to take a dip further south towards SE Canada in recent runs or was the straw that helped break the camel's back, resisting & opposing the deep-layer anomalous easterly flow tendency underneath the Baffin Bay block.

1611448601477.png
 
RVD said:
That TPV moving more SE isn't the only thing changing on more recent GFS runs... the trough offshore is also poking a little bit further west... clearly already doing work on the ridging ahead of our shortwave. Another day of shifts like these shown would probably bring this storm back for NC, but the real question is whether we get those shifts. I think it's not likely but possible; that Baffin bay block has clearly proven already to be a pretty difficult forecast, so it's feasible that enough uncertainty in the current setup still exists for us to capitalize on.
View attachment 67339
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I'd so much rather the low be at or near the 50/50 position.
 
Looking forward actually to the 00z runs. See if there are real changes going on here with respect to a more southerly move or if this is just noise more or less and the storm plus snow track remain more northerly fixated.
 
A shift south with 18z EPS
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