Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

I recommend Boone.

I recommend the very top of grandfather mountain

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Man that snow is close by, but just as well be 500 miles north if it's not in OBY!

 

[LickWx]

Is it just or since April have the mean trough/ ridge axis seemed completely out of wack ? Normally the coldest and bottom of a trough is Tennessee / Alabama area, rule of thumb is always further east less cold .Thats why Huntsville Alabama and Greensboro nc have the same annual mean minimum . However ever since April it has seemed to be completely out of wack and instead an abnormal further west you are the warmer . Just look at models for Tuesday . Places NW of me look as warm or warmer .

 

[IWC]

Well I'm keeping my fingers crossed to get a lil something here in RDU... Lickwx I think we purchased a truck from you a few weeks ago..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty good agreement here on the location that gets hit, still not 100

 

[BufordWX]

The Canadian is trying to make things interesting for me. Lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Uh GEFS is much better ? Wtf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

V16 was also better at the surface this run and had snow farther south

 

[Ollie Williams]

Uh GEFS is much better ? Wtf View attachment 67397View attachment 67398View attachment 67399

Much more ridging to the north like our first scenario.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Bro wtf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There’s a couple really solid members

 

[sdm47]

Bro wtf View attachment 67402View attachment 67403

This IS THE WAY. We've tested this theory every which way possible. We need the high to build in and to do that we need that upper low out of the way. I am truly shocked at the GEFS though, was not expecting such a dramatic shift. Wow.

 

[Chandler]

There’s a couple really solid members View attachment 67406View attachment 67408

Member 23 is a crush job at the border

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More confluence from SE Canada as well

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This IS THE WAY. We've tested this theory every which way possible. We need the high to build in and to do that we need that upper low out of the way. I am truly shocked at the GEFS though, was not expecting such a dramatic shift. Wow.

Yeah that’s a shift you’d expect at hour 144+ or something like that, geez

 

[sdm47]

More confluence from SE Canada as well View attachment 67410View attachment 67411

Here comes the high too (concentrate on the 1020mb isobar). Almost appears this is due more to the confluence from the northeast than the trend with the upper low over south-central Canada. If we can keep trending on both of these maybe there's a chance....

 

[sdm47]

Yeah that’s a shift you’d expect at hour 144+ or something like that, geez

Even inside 30 hours there is a massive shift at H5 (for that time frame). This thing still isn't settled 100%.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woah the Uk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Time to high five again boys

 

[mrdaddyman]

?View attachment 67416

Closeup for y'all.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

There’s a couple really solid members View attachment 67406View attachment 67408

Yeah I was looking at temperatures in a lot of these models and there’s a few things I notice ... the cold is going to be rushing in but will there be moisture left? GFS looks like it’s randomly dry as soon as conditions become favorable at 850 .. but I see temps in the 30s on a lot of the models when we have good amount of précis over us .. this is very very close to a crush job for NC ... I’ve been saying we don’t want to be in the jackpot at 140 hours

 

[SD]

Time to high five again boys View attachment 67418View attachment 67419View attachment 67420

? ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

WOW I WAS TYPING UP THAT TWEET BEFORE I SAW THE UK ... yeah I swear this is like clock work with classic NC winter storms coming back in medium to short range

 

[Clem282340]

Time to high five again boys View attachment 67418View attachment 67419View attachment 67420

Could this storm shift more to the south

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This little difference made a huge difference, insane

 

[NCSNOW]

Holy cow at the ukmet,
And check out DC on the clown. Lol

 

[sdm47]

Time to high five again boys View attachment 67418View attachment 67419View attachment 67420

And it is totally different than the GEFS at H5. Wow, I really have to say I didn't think this way could work but the UK is just a lot colder initially than the GFS is thus the cold isn't as far away when the low wraps up offshore.

..

 

[Stephenb888]

Not enough for upstate SC.

Could this storm shift more to the south

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[sdm47]

WOW I WAS TYPING UP THAT TWEET BEFORE I SAW THE UK ... yeah I swear this is like clock work with classic NC winter storms coming back in medium to short range

Shoutout for sticking with it, man. I fully admit I gave up after 12z runs today and now it looks like it has a chance, regardless of how it ends up.

 

[NCSNOW]

This little difference made a huge difference, insaneView attachment 67424View attachment 67423

Our Canadian vort is futher south 70 miles. But as important our low isnt out in front.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UK is a tad bit south with the S/W it appears which helps so much

 

[sdm47]

Slight differences!

 

[tramadoc]

Time to high five again boys View attachment 67418View attachment 67419View attachment 67420

Daddy like.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Slight differences!

View attachment 67431

View attachment 67433

Damn NC is definitely in the game still, I was honestly slowly loosing hope myself haha

 

[tramadoc]

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Loving what I see on the UKMET! I read that the UK at one point had a bias towards placing features too far south, do yall know if that's still something it struggles with? Seems like the UK has consistently been modeling the storm south of the GFS, Euro, etc.

 

[Gusmalaka]

Time to high five again boys View attachment 67418View attachment 67419View attachment 67420

?View attachment 67416

 

[Tarheel1]

At this point move man, the upstate isn’t it ?

Come get u some! ?