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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Per Maxar this morning, who is expecting a solidly cold days 16-20:
“Forecast Trends Warmer; But Changing Pattern
Warm changes were made to the forecast today, particularly during the second half of the 6-10 Day period for most areas and in the early to middle stages of the 11-15 Day period for the Eastern Third. The result was a net loss of –12.1 GWHDDs overall. The models saw more significant changes when compared to our forecast; the Euro EN lost –17.0 GWHDDs while the GFS EN lost –24.1 GWHDDs (0z today vs 0z yesterday). Despite being warmer, the models continue to project a pattern change away from the +PNA of the nearer term as a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific during the 11-15 Day period. Increasing cold support is associated and echoed by CPC upper air analogs. The analog composite, which centers on the 11-15 Day period, is more amplified versus current projections but reflects the potential for more widespread below normal coverage associated with the pattern. Those same analogs rolled forward into the 16-20 Day period continue the colder than normal themes. The risk to our forecast and the models is that cooling occurs more quickly and is more anomalous as a result.”
“Forecast Trends Warmer; But Changing Pattern
Warm changes were made to the forecast today, particularly during the second half of the 6-10 Day period for most areas and in the early to middle stages of the 11-15 Day period for the Eastern Third. The result was a net loss of –12.1 GWHDDs overall. The models saw more significant changes when compared to our forecast; the Euro EN lost –17.0 GWHDDs while the GFS EN lost –24.1 GWHDDs (0z today vs 0z yesterday). Despite being warmer, the models continue to project a pattern change away from the +PNA of the nearer term as a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific during the 11-15 Day period. Increasing cold support is associated and echoed by CPC upper air analogs. The analog composite, which centers on the 11-15 Day period, is more amplified versus current projections but reflects the potential for more widespread below normal coverage associated with the pattern. Those same analogs rolled forward into the 16-20 Day period continue the colder than normal themes. The risk to our forecast and the models is that cooling occurs more quickly and is more anomalous as a result.”
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Big donut over the Baffin Bay in the medium range screwing up our -NAO
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Welp, that was fun while it lasted.
but was there really any fun?
whatalife
Moderator
Well that's not going to be helpful as we move into the 15th-25th time frame. Hopefully it's wrong.
I know it doesn’t look as good but maybe that could move south (TPV) ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Should help the NE US score in this time frame imo, the big dog usually shows up when the pattern is transitioning to +NAO or much less negative. Might give the TPV a head start towards the CONUS when the big ridge goes up N of Alaska
Interesting trend with the TPV
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep I was just about to say, it might not suck because the TPV will have a little head start towards the CONUS when the -EPO goes up in the following week.
ColdAMO
Member
Next week the maps will make the winter of 2011-2012 look like a ice age.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol the TPV is almost on the southern shore of the Hudson Bay by Jan 15 on the GEFS.
Cadi40
Member
So are we collectively losing hope for the 15th-30th timeline?
This is the stuff I like to see, TPV nearby ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I knew it was lies when the coldest air on earth was on our side of the globe!