NCSNOW
Member
Imagine if it would just drop straight down and phase.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
See my earlier post.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Nobody extrapolating the 84 hour NAM? I’m disappointed in you guys!
it’s actually the best looking model tbh, S/W further south and cooling quickly at H85 as precip was moving in (starting out as rain)
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I was noticing it was pretty far south relative to other modeling. Interesting
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Smh it’ll be in SC by tomorrow 
Lol wudge. Gotta love it
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Poor SER has to be bruised as much as it’s taken a beaten closer to day 0 each time.
Well 850 up is doing well
Gotta love this type of setup when you see it you know we're doomed.
00z ICON:
Where's the rest
Well this is interesting...
SPC AC 231710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps even a brief tornado may occur over portions of North
Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas Sunday evening
through early Monday morning.
...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Based on recent satellite imagery, a shortwave trough currently
extends from the western Great Basin southwestward across central
CA. This shortwave is expected to continue gradually southeastward
today before then pivoting more eastward late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. The shortwave is then forecast to become more progressive
as it moves across the Southwest on Sunday and into the southern
Plains on Sunday night. A second shortwave trough, accompanied by
strong upper flow through its western periphery, is expected to drop
southward along the CA coast Sunday evening/overnight. Progression
of this second shortwave will help maintain broad upper troughing
across the western CONUS into early Monday.
Modest moisture return is anticipated throughout the warm sector in
place over southern Plains ahead of the lead shortwave. Consensus
among the guidance brings low 60s surface dewpoints to the Red River
by late Sunday evening. Low-level stability should preclude
afternoon/evening storms across much of TX. A few stronger updrafts
may develop amid persistent warm-air advection during the
afternoon/evening from northeast TX northeastward across eastern OK
and across AR. Modest instability should limit both updraft depth
and longevity, but strong vertical shear could result in a few
updrafts strong enough to produce hail.
Greater storm coverage (and attendant severe potential) is expected
late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the surface low
associated with the shortwave moves from northwest TX into northeast
OK. Highest thunderstorm coverage is currently anticipated along and
just north of the surface low track. Instability will be modest, but
very strong vertical shear could result in a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail. Additionally, low-probability potential exists for
a few surface-based storms in the vicinity of front from northeast
TX into far southeast OK/far southwest AR. Given the strong
low/mid-level flow, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
even a brief tornado could accompany any surface-based storms.
SPC AC 231710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps even a brief tornado may occur over portions of North
Texas, southern/eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas Sunday evening
through early Monday morning.
...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
Based on recent satellite imagery, a shortwave trough currently
extends from the western Great Basin southwestward across central
CA. This shortwave is expected to continue gradually southeastward
today before then pivoting more eastward late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. The shortwave is then forecast to become more progressive
as it moves across the Southwest on Sunday and into the southern
Plains on Sunday night. A second shortwave trough, accompanied by
strong upper flow through its western periphery, is expected to drop
southward along the CA coast Sunday evening/overnight. Progression
of this second shortwave will help maintain broad upper troughing
across the western CONUS into early Monday.
Modest moisture return is anticipated throughout the warm sector in
place over southern Plains ahead of the lead shortwave. Consensus
among the guidance brings low 60s surface dewpoints to the Red River
by late Sunday evening. Low-level stability should preclude
afternoon/evening storms across much of TX. A few stronger updrafts
may develop amid persistent warm-air advection during the
afternoon/evening from northeast TX northeastward across eastern OK
and across AR. Modest instability should limit both updraft depth
and longevity, but strong vertical shear could result in a few
updrafts strong enough to produce hail.
Greater storm coverage (and attendant severe potential) is expected
late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the surface low
associated with the shortwave moves from northwest TX into northeast
OK. Highest thunderstorm coverage is currently anticipated along and
just north of the surface low track. Instability will be modest, but
very strong vertical shear could result in a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail. Additionally, low-probability potential exists for
a few surface-based storms in the vicinity of front from northeast
TX into far southeast OK/far southwest AR. Given the strong
low/mid-level flow, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
even a brief tornado could accompany any surface-based storms.
LickWx
Member
Dang. 
LickWx
Member
For the shorter range, this is a massive change 
I rarely look at obs around the area if you hadn't said anything I would have kept moving right along
Do we have time to trend that thing back to where it came from?
Probably not
Everything is copacetic. Thanks for asking! Are you from around these parts? Happen to be familiar with the area?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
With 6 hour jumps like that, yes........ anything is possible.
LickWx
Member
I still think it's an outside chance at 19 at RDU
Currently reading 9 degrees higher than a nearby station
This is our only chance IMO. Long, looooong shot. But you can see the colder air tilting southeastward because the high was allowed to nose in ever-so-slightly faster because that upper low didn't come east quite as fast. We probably need more than we can get, but.....?
LickWx
Member
Pain
I think that we have reached the point where I say that there is a high likelihood of the storm missing us to the north, with the small exception of @metwannabe. I think that is we see things come back, then we’ll talk (not giving up hope), but it looks to be a Mid-Atlantic storm.
Does said change get me snow?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Surface temps on Thursday at 7am were much warmer than 18z run. I wonder why?
At this point move man, the upstate isn’t it ?
iGRXY
Member
I recommend Boone.