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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Not liking what I am seeing on the models. This pattern change looks like it is being pushed back.


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12 hours ago everyone was so hyped on the next couple if weeks, and now it's all doom and gloom. If we don't get a good winter storm this month with how folks were saying this is the best possible pattern and setup we could have then I am seriously done here and paying attention to what anyone says about the pattern and models. Just a waste of time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
12 hours ago everyone was so hyped on the next couple if weeks, and now it's all doom and gloom. If we don't get a good winter storm this month with how folks were saying this is the best possible pattern and setup we could have then I am seriously done here and paying attention to what anyone says about the pattern and models. Just a waste of time.
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Put it in the Whamby thread.
 
Rain Cold said:
6z GFS LR was just fine
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Winters over, x model sucked, I thought the trends were good, if it doesn't snow by x date its over, yesterday everyone said things are good, mby went from 6 inches at 330 hours to 0 at 324 storm cancel, this model sucks at x range but I'mma post it anyway
 
SD said:
Winters over, x model sucked, I thought the trends were good, if it doesn't snow by x date its over, yesterday everyone said things are good, mby went from 6 inches at 330 hours to 0 at 324 storm cancel, this model sucks at x range but I'mma post it anyway
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You did that right ! Good job ! You get a pack of Nathan’s weenies as reward .
 
Models are notorious for being wishy washy around the timing of big large scale pattern changes....based on the indices we should get a great winter weather pattern for the SE and the models hint at it some runs, but it wont consistently show up till we are actually in that pattern....the models will trend better as we get closer to the 15th or so.....
 
Downeastnc said:
Models are notorious for being wishy washy around the timing of big large scale pattern changes....based on the indices we should get a great winter weather pattern for the SE and the models hint at it some runs, but it wont consistently show up till we are actually in that pattern....the models will trend better as we get closer to the 15th or so.....
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My only fear is that we get a -PNA and SER. I'm not too scared yet, but keep in mind that this was the pattern models had last December. The only real difference is that we have a strat warm, so our AO seems much more likely.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5676800.png
 
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