Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Ones north of Bristol the other over Columbia.. 1-20
iGRXY
Member
One more shift like that on the UK and the northern 3rd of SC would be in the game again. Still time to get another shift south.
Stephenb888
Member
If this did shift south some more, would this still be an 85 north event?
Clem282340
Member
I hope man we need all the help we can get
CMCE looked better 
NAVGEM isn’t a good model in my experience but it looks UKish, a less amped system tho 
It looks like the wave wants to centralize in SE Canada with further trends. Certainly not a bad look.
Euro so far looks similar to the GFS with that TPV piece, it’s actually more west this run vs 12z
Euro is colder at 850mb so far vs 12z 
This probably helps 
Ok then ? don’t know if this is enough but certainly a step towards the UK 
Looking good
Definitely a better run compared to 12z 
I certainly believe more of this could be snow.
iGRXY
Member
We need another decent shift south. Need the vort over Savannah to have a real chance. And to get that you need the energy in Canada right near the GL. Is it possible to see it trend that way? Of course as we are still 4-5 days away and big changes have happened on the models consistently in that range for a while now. Do I think it’ll happen? Probably not but the option is still there for it happen.
Can’t ask for a much better trend, we still have a solid amount of time 
Certainly much better totals!
iGRXY
Member
Not really. The energy in Canada has trended south east by a good bit over the last 48 hours which helps push our vort further south and we have less WAA out ahead of the storm with less ridging. It’s really not that far off.the Euro had the vort moving right over us. It wouldn’t take much to much for it to drop another 100 miles south and have it move south of I20 for us to have a realistic chance. Again you have to have the trends continue for a more southern solution but we still have some time left. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for it but the probability is still there.
Man this is getting closer to getting even better 
iGRXY
Member
If we could get that energy in Canada out ahead and have it sitting on the US/CAN border we would be in the jackpot. The type of shift south you saw on the UK and Euro tonight is exactly what we need to happen again to get GSP to CLT in the mix for this storm. Still have plenty of time but our luck is also God awful so who knows
The TPV phasing with that system in the Ocean sure changes the pattern after 
Wait a minute ? that change really helped the pattern out afterwards 
Seems like the Torch is never gonna happen lol 
At this point I’m rooting for a southeast trend with the TPV, not only does that help with the first system, but it helps with the pattern after by effectively creating a stronger vortex near SE Canada
00z Euro, much better than 12z, but about the same as 18z (a little better)
Looks better at H5, a bit more confluence from the NE to boot as well, welp Gn hopefully we get better trends later today ??
6z Icon better in NC. 6z GFS about the same as 0z.
ajr
Member
6z GFS made a small shift in the right direction
ajr
Member
As did the GEFS
IMO what we are rooting for now (obviously) is the UKMET solution. That closed ULL in Canada has to get far enough out ahead of the shortwave to keep the height field suppressed, allowing the surface low to stay south of NC and redevelop offshore, which then wraps in enough cold air to save the day. This is far from the more ideal solution of having the cold air in place out ahead of the system like would have been the case without this upper low in Canada, but the fact we even have a needle to thread at this juncture is something I didn't think we'd have yesterday so I'll take it.
FWIW baby steps on the GFS v16
17 so far this morning DP 16 so may drop 1 more and iirc that will be the coldest morning this winter.
At least on the GFS anyway, the extended still shows very cold air building in Canada. It's unreliable way out, but I'd rather see that than all of the cold hanging out in Siberia. Who knows.
Euro, GFS and v16...... differences on the Euro glaringly obvious
ajr
Member
Just for fun, here are four of the top five CIPS analogs: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2021012400&map=tbl
1.
3.
4.
5.
This one is a little further down:
1.
3.
4.
5.
This one is a little further down:
TPV still shifting, just not with aggressive “ticks” like yesterday. We’re down to baby ticks SE, I’ll take it though. Going to be a fun storm to track, even as we get soaked in another cool rain here in SC.