Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Myfrotho704_]

This is actually legit cold for a warm biased gefs

 

[CyclonicFury]

Now here's some legit cold...at 384 of course

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 63519

Is that a cowboy hat, or a fallopian tube??

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS 4 run 850mb temp anomaly trend valid for Jan 16th.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t you just wish we could slide a Baja wave under this

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If we get this look to stay I’ll get way more optimistic, TPV stuck under a -NAO lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Don’t you just wish we could slide a Baja wave under this View attachment 63530

It's just gonna be a matter of resolving the individual waves within this pattern. You can see the base of longwave trough over SE Canada is starting to dig into the southern rockies & plains states on the ensemble mean vorticity field. If that's a bonafide s/w digging into the side of the west coast ridge and not a sheared out hot mess, then we're looking at an overrunning event in this time frame.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is January 2018 but basically with a -NAO

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS looks like it's trying to get the party started on the 16th-17th.

 

[SD]

I know it doesn’t look as good but maybe that could move south (TPV) ?View attachment 63512

We've probably had better success with this look in the last decade then anything else

 

[ATLwxfan]

Pattern is loaded. 18z headed for glory.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We've probably had better success with this look in the last decade then anything else

This is the look you basically said would probably work out for us this winter back in fall, nice stuff

 

[Webberweather53]

GEFS not wasting any time as soon as the big TPV starts to knock on our door, that's a bonafide overrunning look for the I-40 corridor from AR to NC around the 17th.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow....
do you approve @Rain Cold

 

[Snowfan]

GEFS not wasting any time as soon as the big TPV starts to knock on our door, that's a bonafide overrunning look for the I-40 corridor from AR to NC around the 17th.

The GFS operational was showing it too.

 

[Webberweather53]

Wow....
do you approve @Rain Cold View attachment 63537View attachment 63538

Only just starting to feed Siberian air into N America at that time frame. Probably about to get a lot colder for the continent as a whole in later frames

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The gefs is actually showing blue colors at
The surface in the longer range ? Almost can’t believe it

 

[Webberweather53]

The gefs is actually showing blue colors at
The surface in the longer range ? Almost can’t believe it View attachment 63539

Doom

 

[smast16]

Don’t you just wish we could slide a Baja wave under this View attachment 63530

Not believing in the tPV yet, but as long as the SER keeps getting kicked down the road, i'll keep looking up from the bottom of my cliff.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Went from this yesterday to this