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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

RDU held at 26 all night somehow . Looks like a breeze and cloud cover that moved in . Places further east stayed clear so got colder .
 
Lickwx said:
RDU held at 26 all night somehow . Looks like a breeze and cloud cover that moved in . Places further east stayed clear so got colder .
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Yep, I got down to 22 in SW Wilson County
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ajr said:
Just for fun, here are four of the top five CIPS analogs: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2021012400&map=tbl

1.
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3.
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4.
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5.
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This one is a little further down:
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I experienced that Feb. 6-7 1980 event firsthand from Duck (far northern OBX). It was a beast. It seems to me that areas down east or NE will be favored in this setup (if it is to produce snow in NC)
 
The Newfoundland low is also trending wsw...creating quite a wall with that low diving down south of Hudson Bay. The NE crew ain't going to like that.

Past 3 EPS runs at day 4
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KyloG said:
The Newfoundland low is also trending ese...creating quite a wall with that low diving down south of Hudson Bay. The NE crew ain't going to like that.

Past 3 EPS runs at day 4
View attachment 67503
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I think that 50/50 low position is really what is going to help us the most in NC if it keeps trending stronger and further SW. the Hudson Bay low also helps, but to get more confluence and more antecedent cold available I think that is the biggest feature IMO
 
Stormdoc said:
I think that 50/50 low position is really what is going to help us the most in NC if it keeps trending stronger and further SW. the Hudson Bay low also helps, but to get more confluence and more antecedent cold available I think that is the biggest feature IMO
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With the NF low trending WSW it also has held up the hp from sliding in...no more ice to worry about.

EPS2.gifEPS.gif
 
Poimen said:
I experienced that Feb. 6-7 1980 event firsthand from Duck (far northern OBX). It was a beast. It seems to me that areas down east or NE will be favored in this setup (if it is to produce snow in NC)
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I recall the President's Day storm of '79 and both of the storms in 1980. It seemed like the separate storms in '80 were about two weeks apart, but I knew my memory was a bit foggy as we're talking about four decades ago and I had recently turned 7 years old in the early part of '80.
 
ColaSnow said:
I recall the President's Day storm of '79 and both of the storms in 1980. It seemed like the separate storms in '80 were about two weeks apart, but I knew my memory was a bit foggy as we're talking about four decades ago and I had recently turned 7 years old in the early part of '80.
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I’m a little surprised to see the President’s Day’79 storm as an analog. That storm was very unusually cold for snowstorms in the Carolinas with KGSO, KRDU, and KCLT all having temperatures in the low to mid teens during the bulk of the storm... sounds like it would have been a much different set up.
 
So comparing the 12z NAM to the 6z GFS, the NAM is a good bit SE at hour 84. Not sure how it would play out afterwards but at least it looks better (...or different).
 
I guess we're making progress with the small shifts south, but it still might not make much of a difference for NC folks. We need some bigger shifts.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m a little surprised to see the President’s Day’79 storm as an analog. That storm was very unusually cold for snowstorms in the Carolinas with KGSO, KRDU, and KCLT all having temperatures in the low to mid teens during the bulk of the storm... sounds like it would have been a much different set up.
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I remember that storm very well also. Like you said low to mid teens, and during the day. The next day, I believe was Monday ,sunny mid to upper 40s meltfest
 
Sort of similar to 00z Euro but with a stronger low E of Hatteras, NE NC with perhaps some accumulating snow
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Southern VA Special on the 12z GFS. Looks to get the northern tier counties of NC in on the good stuff if my map reading abilities are still up to par.

EDIT - pivotal has most of it showing up as rain in NC. The column was good for a larger area, but surface temps are in the mid 40's.
 
GFS coming into line with a southern VA jackpot.

Past 4 0z/12 runs on the GFS

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packfan98 said:
qpf_024h.us_ma.png

Now we need colder air!
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This is the problem with the solution we have now. Unless that upper low can shift 100s of miles east such that the NVA is over New England, how are we going to get a surface high pressure to drive that cold air into the region? The only way I see is to thread the needle with a weak suppressed low that explodes once offshore, like what the UKMET did - and what a fine needle to thread that is.
 
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