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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Now this is finally a better pattern where the southeast ridge can take hold 
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
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WPC generally the best realistic guidance
Days 4 and 5
Days 4 and 5
GOA ridge is the worst possible ridge you can get in the pacific, geez severe weather would be fun with this sort of pattern, but this pattern is honestly one of those that could shift to put us in the freezer or bake 
This might be a pretty interesting run although it’s warmer at H85 so far 
LickWx
Member
Severe weather look? I want our friends in Georgia to freeze their balls off this spring personally. I have suffered one too many cold Marches past decade that they avoided. Love the WAR! Keeps me warm and the rest of them cold. Thats a warm humid look.
UK is an absolute bomb, drops 36mb in 18hrs, ATL-CLT to just off HAT. Some indication from both it and the NAM SLP gets cranking off the Crystal Coast. Column just crashes between hours 90 and 96. While the NAM/GFS both have energy displaced from the base in Central Appalachia, UK/ECMWF keep it semi-consolidated at the base of the trough access.
Little food for thought!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah maybe, and that’s a look where we can get the SERs that hug the Eastern SE (those can be very warm)
LickWx
Member
Very warm and humid especially right along the coast . That’s a pattern where places like Savannah , Charleston , wilmington , and new Bern can push to 80 with moderate humidity and warm lows . Essentially early summer weather . Beach trip in February if that happens .
Hopefully it happens we’re due for a big SER
LickWx
Member
Well one could say we are due a massive arctic outbreak as well lol. I’m just rooting for the SER option .
I think given we are in a nina February, our odds of a bake fest are better, but not 100
snowlover91
Member
Euro wasn’t a good run overall, for anyone really.
This run was meh asf 
olhausen
Member
So does this storm have any chance of bringing accumulating snow to northern middle Tennessee? It seems to have started trending in the direction of at least seeing some flurries possibly.
NCSNOW
Member
Good analysis. I need AtL-clt- south of Morhead. Prefearably Wilm/Myb. Think that would bennefit you guys even more with that rapid deepening and no WAA worries. Put yall in sweet spot longer before pulling out.
As I alluded to yesterday, even though that upper low is trending south hundreds of miles, there has been no change in the amount of low level cold air available at the start of this event. Without the surface high nosing in -- which would require the upper low to shift east hundreds of miles -- it is going to be an extremely narrow tightrope to make this work other than maybe a backside band somewhere in northeastern NC.
NCSNOW
Member
Need the bombagenisis right as it exits coast, not a second latter. Then you need it in a certain spot,depending on your location. Long shot, but its all we got and have to root for.
That low really just killed any chance of a significant event. Not sure what could change in the next couple of days to improve the situation...the UK is threading the needle near perfectly.
Jon
Member
Yeah but all things aren’t equal here...There’s been a change in the timing this run. The 12z euro sped up a little bit this run. It’s marginal, but the cold is there if the Euro sticks to its original timing. For instance, the bulk of precip on a lot of these runs and including a lot of other modeling, occurs between 1am-7am for Central NC. 12z euro has the bulk of precip occurring before 1am, when temps are warm at the surface.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
At least we're headed in the right direction but still a long way to go for NC.
Also, Euro isn't infallible at day 4. Look at how it's trended for the system affecting the northern plains in a couple of days...much more amped. Which has impacted the MA folks from getting an event. The MA was looking at potentially 2 events this week just 24-36 hours ago...and now that's really diminished.
Euro with some nice pre-spring showers the next week or so. Been the theme past couple of months...
2 months of -AO/-NAO and will be nothing to show from it. That doesn't happen often.
2 months of -AO/-NAO and will be nothing to show from it. That doesn't happen often.
The euro has made massive steps towards a more favorable look in the medium range, a few more of these and we have a miller B/CAD situation, that TPV Phasing with our storm amplifies over the Atlantic and becomes a strong SE Canada vortex which helps us out 
It’s also called snow pack to our north will cause cad winter storm in the short to medium range. Works wonders. But need the storm to actually happen for Virginia north
Are you surprised? Went from horrendous to something close and much better 
The surface pattern is getting much better as expected towards that range, I was honestly thinking about waving the white flag but if this continues, nah lol
Do need to fix the location of our shortwave tho in the US
Do need to fix the location of our shortwave tho in the US
100% correct, I would probably tuck the surface reflection in a little closer around max delta T, natural baroclinicity along the Gulf stream, anywhere from 30-60 miles depending on where from the NC coast. UK is about perfect with the 850, starts blossoming once off ILM on a NE track. Sub 990 off the coast will be more than sufficient for a robust cold core conveyer belt, whether that's in the ATL or onshore somewhere is TBD.
EPS likes that second system FWIW
The changes ?
We could really get another go at this sort of setup lol, let’s keep it clean tho, I want me some CAD
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Gefs had a similar look right?
Not as good really but it’s headed the right direction
This really isn’t bad at all. We just need a little good luck. Throw a dart at the board enough times and you’re bound to hit the bullseye
As birdbrains alluded to, if the Euro/EPS idea is right, we want this first system to deliver a nice snow to our north, as that helps the one after, snowpack to our north isn’t impressive atm, I just hope we can trend better with it and keep it a CAD setup rather, here north of CLT, I’d rather have a miller B/CAD setup over a miller A, given we get screwed on a often back west with those
