Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[NCSNOW]

I guess that low dropping south isn't going to deliver the magic we hope for. That's pretty far south...

View attachment 67631

The wave down south cant be in front. To fast. Need it to slow down

 

[SD]

Gotta admit tho we get severe weather way more easily then we get snow, every ensemble is honking the horn on a favorable larger scale pattern for severe weather, we could easily move away from this look given the range but that’s a pretty impressive signal View attachment 67632View attachment 67637View attachment 67634View attachment 67633View attachment 67635View attachment 67636

Got mslp for these

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Got mslp for these

Yessir also here’s the 2M temp anoms

 

[RBR71]

Got IP falling right now

 

[tramadoc]

Little grauple here 5 miles west of KECG.

 

[WeatherNC]

 

[Brick Tamland]

It's sleeting here. Probably the most winter weather I will get.

 

[BufordWX]

Nighttime storms FTW!!!

 

[TheBatman]

It's sleeting here. Probably the most winter weather I will get.

Consider yourself lucky then. Lol

 

[RBR71]

18z Euro didn't look good

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Maybe

 

[SD]

Maybe View attachment 67656View attachment 67657View attachment 67658View attachment 67659View attachment 67660

Look at that inversion lollllllll gotta love launching parcels from 825

 

[Brick Tamland]

I guess that low dropping south isn't going to deliver the magic we hope for. That's pretty far south...

View attachment 67631

But I am positive it was said if it went further south it would deliver a snow storm for NC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Look at that inversion lollllllll gotta love launching parcels from 825

Sucks that the best forcing leaves, would be nice to get some boomers

 

[SD]

Sucks that the best forcing leaves, would be nice to get soon boomers

They will be here soon enough. Maybe with that ridge in early Feb

 

[tazaroo]

But I am positive it was said if it went further south it would deliver a snow storm for NC.

It also had to stay in front of our wave. Not the tpv in front.

 

[SD]

It also had to stay in front of our wave. Not the tpv in front.

Indeed at this point you are almost hoping the lakes wave can phase into the southern wave as it's passing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Indeed at this point you are almost hoping the lakes wave can phase into the southern wave as it's passing

So, it's pretty much hopeless.

 

[BufordWX]

This is the area I’ll be watching over the next few hours. We might squeeze out some small hail later tonight form those storms around here.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Most of us will have to wait for STORM #3 the one after Thursday's storm! Per James Baker.........................?

 

[Nomanslandva]

RGEM is a flash flood for me. Well, maybe not that bad but way too warm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I find it crazy as posted above that pretty much all these years harbored some major severe weather outbreaks, I know it’s not a slam dunk but geez lol, I wonder why La Niña is so effective at producing severe weather, I know it encourages a SER which is one peice

 

[SD]

Do I need to say it? I'm not entirely disappointed in what happens after the early Feb ridging. I might go ahead and start the Feb thread I don't think the vote is going to change

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Do I need to say it? I'm not entirely disappointed in what happens after the early Feb ridging. I might go ahead and start the Feb thread I don't think the vote is going to change

Imagine if we get a big trough to migrate (one that could give the SE us severe) and wavebreak under the block and form another intense -NAO

 

[SD]

Imagine if we get a big trough to migrate (one that could give the SE us severe) and wavebreak under the block and form another intense -NAO

That would be awesome. We might be about to lose the -pna a bit too. Meh it's a long way away

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That would be awesome. We might be about to lose the -pna a bit too. Meh it's a long way away

It’s hard, because the -PNA is finally delivering the barrage of waves, but the +PNA had a few setups that could have really worked out, but yeah that stuff is super far out unfortunately

 

[SD]

It’s hard, because the -PNA is finally delivering the barrage of waves, but the +PNA had a few setups that could have really worked out, but yeah that stuff is super far out unfortunately

When is the system the eps is so excited about?

 

[LickWx]

That would be awesome. We might be about to lose the -pna a bit too. Meh it's a long way away

As time goes on and waves shorten again doesn’t the effect of the NAO weaken the further south you are ? A -NAO in summer is different than one in winter , and a classic hurricane strike pattern .

 

[SD]

As time goes on and waves shorten again doesn’t the effect of the NAO weaken the further south you are ? A -NAO in summer is different than one in winter , and a classic hurricane strike pattern .

Indeed

 

[Myfrotho704_]

When is the system the eps is so excited about?

Next sat/sun, gefs isn’t excited about it at all tho which is a red flag

 

[SD]

Next sat/sun, gefs isn’t excited about it at all tho which is a red flag

Meh give me the eps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh give me the eps

Snuff out the early January stuff, even though it was to bullish, I’d much rather have the EPS on our side

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??‍??‍??‍

 

[LickWx]

??‍??‍??‍

Well , what can we do it’s what the models gave us . All the Mets bit on it as it was what the guidance kept showing.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well , what can we do it’s what the models gave us . All the Mets bit on it as it was what the guidance kept showing.

Yeah the overall pattern happened, and it just didn’t snow, not a bad pattern but as always, need to get luck in the SE, now let’s hope that southeast ridge can verify

 

[LickWx]

Yeah the overall pattern happened, and it just didn’t snow, not a bad pattern but as always, need to get luck in the SE, now let’s hope that southeast ridge can verify

I still doubt it will. The NAO is sticky and CAD is harder to erode than granite ! Well even if it does it will be warm at 5k feet above our heads only lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z EPS looks better for the second system, but yet again it’s farther out so I wouldn’t get upset if we lose it
Miller B winter storm composite from webb

 

[Mr. Golf]

If the lag theory with the SSW is anywhere close to accurate, then the mid February period on we should eventually get pretty cold east of the rockies.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hug the HRRR