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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

GaWx said:
It is always much better to use ensemble means, especially Euro ens mean, to get the best feel for how cold or mild temps will likely be, especially after day 7. These GFS operational maps out past day 10 are little more than entertainment/model cartoons. And that’s not even talking about storms, which are near worthless on the GFS day 10+.
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GFS out 5 days is trash too


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sdm47 said:
That was actually closer than I realized. Precip trying to break out by 198 with 850s well below 0, 925s -1 to -2C and dewpoints in the 20s and crashing into the teens to low 20s. More of that is what we want and 5 days closer. But we must get the cold first so let's do this.
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Always like to have a good high to the north/northwest feeding cold in, and I get nervous when it's not there. But that probably just goes back to my childhood days when Frank Deal used to put up the maps with a high to the north and a low to the south....a classic winter storm setup :)
 
Rain Cold said:
Always like to have a good high to the north/northwest feeding cold in, and I get nervous when it's not there. But that probably just goes back to my childhood days when Frank Deal used to put up the maps with a high to the north and a low to the south....a classic winter storm setup :)
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Absolutely and it's almost a necessity -- at least for us in the central and eastern Carolinas and GA -- in many setups at least to have one back to the west nosing in or either over New England for classic CAD events. But this one in particular would be more akin to January 2018 IMO and be more upper level driven.

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H3 - 1/18/18 00Z
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Here's dumb old me talking about a D8 deterministic model run after my whamby post on just this very thing earlier. I'm a sick individual.
 
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sdm47 said:
Absolutely and it's almost a necessity -- at least for us in the central and eastern Carolinas and GA -- in many setups at least to have one back to the west nosing in or either over New England for classic CAD events. But this one in particular would be more akin to January 2018 IMO and be more upper level driven.

View attachment 64358

H3 - 1/18/18 00Z
View attachment 64357

Here's dumb old me talking about a D8 deterministic model run after my whamby post on just this very thing earlier. I'm a sick individual.
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Good points. The only thing I would add, is that if we didn't live at D8 and beyond, we'd all have pretty boring winters!
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, it looks like our best (maybe only?) shot will be third week in January. Guidance appears to be consistent at this point. Hopefully some fun model watching next week!
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Any time it's close is ok in my book. If it's close a little luck and a slight change can get you in the sweet spot. Most winters around here you get that once, if at all...and a good winter you might get two chances at luck, lol. Almost, trying hard to be gulf lows, and ulls, and cold pushing down, gives us hope...a tiny change could get us happy. I'd love a split flow into the cold pushes. Get the gulf fully involved, not just a tap.
 
sdm47 said:
Absolutely and it's almost a necessity -- at least for us in the central and eastern Carolinas and GA -- in many setups at least to have one back to the west nosing in or either over New England for classic CAD events. But this one in particular would be more akin to January 2018 IMO and be more upper level driven.

View attachment 64358

H3 - 1/18/18 00Z
View attachment 64357

Here's dumb old me talking about a D8 deterministic model run after my whamby post on just this very thing earlier. I'm a sick individual.
Click to expand...
I have NO PROBLEM with Jan 2018. Bring it!!
 
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