LickWx
Member
Not necessarily, I don’t think it’s that the east specifically should get cold it’s that somewhere should get shockingly cold . Favored locations being Asia first then central/ eastern us.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
cd2play
Member
#loadedwithpotential
BufordWX
Member
Sky is already starting to light up from the showers developing around here. Main storms don’t even arrive for another 6 hours. I love nights like these!!!
NoSnowATL
Member
I’m jealous
Soo muchhh painnn, so much pain 
LickWx
Member
I wanted to say the same thing ! Spring thunderstorm climatology east of the mountains is bad . Eastern NC is far enough away and Raleigh close enough that is not horrifyingly bad and can be good though. Look at the annual average of thunderstorm days a year map and you will see a clear CAD signature in it ( not joking , take a look lol!).
LickWx
Member
I just love how the exact coldest part of the state outside the very very highest elevations ( because even most the mountains look warmer ) is modeled right around RDU.
That’s what you get not knowing how to read the models and all the variables and taking verbatim what others say.
Nam shows very spotty stuff but dang with those steep MLLRs it wouldn’t shock me if there’s some elevated thunderstorms 
snowlover91
Member
Interesting changes in the 00z NAM so far.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks way south to me from its 18Z run. At the surface at least.
GSP has been mentioning 50% thunder for a few straight packages
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
snowlover91
Member
BufordWX
Member
I’ll take the NAM. Might squeeze out some flakes here Wednesday morning.
Man why the v16 gotta do me like this, completely different look then any model ?
Drive down 85 and enjoy my 70’s
GFSv16 is still trying.
NCSNOW
Member
That v 16 frame with LP exiting Morehead City fixing to bomb out,is what you want to root for. Every mile south of that point just drag the Rn/Sn line down south with it. Only hope and thats Gold for Northern Coastal Plain. Even back this way. south of Onslow county beach area would be better
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I just don't think that's a realistic solution at all. Too bad that's going to have to be our new gfs
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Even if it was from a meteorologist? And only people who can read the models should be interested and participle here?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like it's all alone, though.
No, but don’t whine every post.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
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Phasing over New England or the Ohio Valley usually doesn’t work out to well for us.
Probably not in time to help us but it helps us with the following system
iGRXY
Member
We will be in the 50’s by the time verification happens. NAM is pushing the wedge further south and holding on longer with each run
LickWx
Member
Not that it means much but temps are 4-5 degrees warmer than what the NAM had for us now. 43/20 . It forecasted a high of 44 today and we got up to 46. Supposed to be upper 30s right now but holding steady instead ! Here’s to a huge bust on the upside ( almost never happens but it has before , like 1/6 CAD events maybe ).
temp and dew rose a degree across the region last hour actually . Come on baby push ! Push!
Nomanslandva
Member
ICON even further south but does not look as cold
LickWx
Member
We are running 3-4 degrees higher than what the NWS had us pegged for at this hour as well! They only have a forecast high of 53 Tuesday . Prove them all wrong . Let’s do this come on please !
Ugh
Would be nice if our new GFS was on to something
Avalanche
Member
Yeah, its been a painful tease this winter. Still have Feb (repeatedly tells himself).
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Just can't see it happening without some major changes, and time is almost up. In any other year we would have already thrown in the towel. However, with the way the models have been this year, there is still some glimmer of hope.
GFS looks even flatter this run
Why oh why did we have to get this ruined by that stupid cinnabon in Canada