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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Ahhh, the sort of stuff I miss
Pretty classic wind profiles for large hail in Texas today with large elongated Hodographs in the upper levels, these are some “hail printer go brrr” Hodographs, also supportive of splitting storms which could make for a couple nasty left movers, in fact we’re already seeing that, enough elevated CAPE/steep mid level lapse rates to get the job done D30B8251-5442-4574-ABC6-97C541470E41.png406F30F3-CEEE-459A-980C-526997733FC2.png
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Areas affected...northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242008Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may produce marginally severe hail later
today, mainly over northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front currently exists over north TX and
into northern LA, with warm advection occurring just off the surface
ahead of the upper trough. This is occurring beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates, with plenty of strong southwest flow aloft to
elongate hodographs.

Warm air advection and lift will increase along the Red River
through 00Z with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. Forecast
soundings show the increasing theta-e around 850 mb will lead to
better instability, although still not particularly strong. Given
the strong winds aloft and deep layer shear, a few of the storms
that form this afternoon may eventually consolidate into marginally
severe hail cores.

..Jewell/Hart.. 01/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34329746 34609524 34119371 33669363 32939403 32489516
32489698 32589732 33119785 33679824 34079809 34329746
 
FallsLake said:
I continue to say weather is amazing. Here are temps for mid afternoon on Tuesday. In Wake County temps are in the low 60s in the south and mid 40s in the north.
View attachment 67603
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One of the best back door fronts I ever saw was maybe 2004 right after xmas. Temp was upper 30s in Elizabeth city over to Rocky mount and we were upper 50s. When it came through it was instant the temp just crashed. Ended up snowing the next day.
 
I aint mad at the 18z NAM.
71823e9a4bd5fdd2b2ffe7821c70467e.jpg



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NCSNOW said:
You guys complaining about wedges, on a work day at that. Just think of all the 90 degree70 dewpoint days coming. Ill take all the wedges we can get. 5 to 6 months of sweltering heat ,that never takes a day off will bebhere soon enough. Enjoy the change while it last.
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I find it pretty funny. Complaining that it won't snow. But also Complaining that it isn't in the 60s and 70s outside. Lol
 
Atlanta in the 60s today , much warmer than originally forecast on models . Hopefully a sign of things to come for me too. Here only a tad warmer than forecast ( 2-3 degrees ) for the highs. Hopefully wedging is far less than anticipated on the models .
 
SD said:
Yeah just like these analogs work out for snow

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Gotta admit tho we get severe weather way more easily then we get snow, every ensemble is honking the horn on a favorable larger scale pattern for severe weather, we could easily move away from this look given the range but that’s a pretty impressive signal 65FEDC81-F0A8-494A-8375-155EA0BE1CA0.png600E7E2C-5838-43D6-BC8E-66CCF23A76CA.png0FFF50F8-7696-4800-B8A4-1F09F6E809C8.png18C50DC6-CF0A-4863-89D9-EA91B28F77CE.png18C38F59-EEB0-4515-83F7-EAC76EAE1E6B.png24966BB0-BB87-408F-A08C-B261F7026FC9.png
 
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