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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Rain Cold said:
Ok my bad. Let's do a retake:

I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and be held in place by the robust west-based -NAO block. The 50/50 will set up strong confluence in the NE and anchor in a strong arctic high, providing an excellent cold air feed into any waves emanating from the moust southwesterly flow. Going to be epic, so buckle up!!
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tenor - 2021-01-03T173450.193.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Ok my bad. Let's do a retake:

I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and be held in place by the robust west-based -NAO block. The 50/50 will set up strong confluence in the NE and anchor in a strong arctic high, providing an excellent cold air feed into any waves emanating from the moist southwesterly flow. Going to be epic, so buckle up!!
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Weenie
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol we are playing with fire with the -PNA though. It's in the LR so it may not happen. But it will be a concern if it does.
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I agree I was giving you a hard time. The snapshot in time that Webb posted was really an overunning look to me especially with the -nao and cold in the NE but that can be quickly erased if we drop a trough to the baja.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s the problem with NPAC blocking and exactly why I wanted to stay away from it, but I’m sure there’s no shortage of N/S On top/maybe a TPV, the risk of getting vodka cold is a risk of a ridge flex below us, I think we’re fine right now tho, feb 2014 wasn’t even a +PNA yet it was vodka cold
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Well we pretty much know exactly what we're getting w/ this +PNA/-NAO look that we have right now. Cold rain, cold rain, & more cold rain. Simply isn't enough cold air around for a big dog, don't see much other choice but for us to take a gamble on a SE ridge and stick a giant block north of Alaska.
 
Rain Cold said:
With the PNA negative, it's going to rain, unless we have a strong high up to the north. You can see on the anomaly map posted above that many of us are barely normal, while the bulk of the cold stays north and west. Hopefully, either that is wrong or we can procure a nice CAD event via the aforementioned stong high. Otherwise, it will be overrunning rain.
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PNA does not produce surface highs over New England.
 
Rain Cold said:
Ok my bad. Let's do a retake:

I really like how the lowering of heights out west create a nice moist SW flow, while the all-out arctic attack invades from the north. As usual, it will have no trouble spilling over the mountains, thanks to the strong, stationary 50/50 low that will set up and be held in place by the robust west-based -NAO block. The 50/50 will set up strong confluence in the NE and anchor in a strong arctic high, providing an excellent cold air feed into any waves emanating from the moist southwesterly flow. Going to be epic, so buckle up!!
Click to expand...
Much better ;)
 
Notice the big ridge in the Barents Sea goes away by day 8-9 on the EPS. Without the concurrent succession of cold sfc highs that come with it and descend east of the Himalayas, that's your big warning sign that the Pacific jet is fixing to retract in the following week or two & a ridge is going to show up in the NE Pacific & Alaska ~Jan 21st.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0582400.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Notice the big ridge in the Barents Sea goes away by day 8-9 on the EPS. Without the concurrent succession of cold sfc highs that come with it and descend east of the Himalayas, that's your big warning sign that the Pacific jet is fixing to retract in the following week or two & a ridge is going to show up in the NE Pacific & Alaska ~Jan 21st.

View attachment 63128
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I'll demarcate this feature so it's a little more obvious what I'm seeing on the model.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0582400.jpg


Now compare w/ this week:

1609875108177.png
 
sdm47 said:
Much better ;)
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Both scenarios are possible. The last few years where we've seen these overrunning setups play out, we've predominantly rained, as the cold core remained west. This year, we'll allegedly have the NAO, which will hopefully suppress the SE ridge enough to allow for better cold air drainage into the SE. We'll see how it plays out.

Eta: I'm optimistic as long as the PNA doesn't go too negative. A well-placed block of sufficient strength can counter it to an extent. Hopefully our good -NAO is real.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well we pretty much know exactly what we're getting w/ this +PNA/-NAO look that we have right now. Cold rain, cold rain, & more cold rain. Simply isn't enough cold air around for a big dog, don't see much other choice but for us to take a gamble on a SE ridge and stick a giant block north of Alaska.
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You didn't agree with the ones that said we needed to fix the Pac last week and says we were fine. Now you're saying we have to gamble fixing the Pac. Which is it?
 
SD said:
Any relation to actually getting forcing out of the IO and this breaking down?
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The appearance of Barents Sea troughing is usually the prelude to Indian Ocean convection and associated w/ phase 1 (W hem) MJO, it's actually a sign that Indian Ocean forcing is fixing to return. On the flip side, the later we get into winter, the less unfavorable Indian Ocean forcing is to us.

1609875513603.png
 
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