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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Maybe we can take this the other way 
I certainly don't like the ridging further east, however, that piece of the TPV moving east can allow more ridging to the west, therefore pushing our system SE.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like square dancing around Branson, Missouri.
Certainly a improvement from 12z
La Niña/maritime forcing = greatness 
RollTide18
Member
Feb 2011 & Feb 2012 all over again
Feb 2018
Like you said earlier, watch east of the mountains get stuck with rain and 50 degree wedges
GFS looks like it’s gonna bring that piece of northern stream energy again in SE Canada, looking more and more like we’re gonna have to deal with it 
iGRXY
Member
Of course it's sitting right in the middle where we don't want it. Either need it gone or sitting over the GL, correct?
iGRXY
Member
Yeah it looks like a dud this go around.
Worse. 
I miss 00z last night
ATLwxfan
Member
Lol those long range outlooks have been terrible. A dartboard has higher predictive value.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
There’s enough wrap around snow this run that it’s actually more here this run versus 12Z
For who?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I know I’ve been beating a dead ? all week and I’m sorry for that..but that doesn’t make me any less right #pain
cd2play
Member
The good news is we're on the verge of seeing Virginia getting left out too.
PA looking golden. WV ski resorts are going to get smoked.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Do not leave us out too ??
Lol there goes warm days East of the mountains 
Pain. 
blueheronNC
Member
At least we have some mid-upper 70s coming on Monday and Tuesday for some January boating along the coast
LickWx
Member
Feb 2017!!!! Even more great . We had like what, 4 days in the 80s here !
Nomanslandva
Member
That was a wild ride the last 24 hours. From too far north 12z yesterday to better 18Z to epic 00Z to looking like it may be getting too far south (for me)....then completely off the rails in the other direction. We just can't even begin to trust anything outside 3 or 4 days.
It was wrong last night when it showed a foot across NC and it was wrong at the 18z run. The Euro was to far north with the system affecting Chicago at day 6 but it seems dialed in now. Let's see how the Euro looks this weekend. Remember, the 12z UK was a whiff almost, 18z ICON looked solid.
Edit: Now watch all the 0z models ram up into PA.
We don’t know
packfan98
Moderator
@KyloG @Myfrotho704_ @Ollie Williams. Any of y’all got the 18z EPS? From what I saw, it looks to be much less suppressed with the moisture. Could be a good run for NC, but might be trending towards the gfs?
EDIT. Nevermind, looks like it became a mid-Atlantic special.
EDIT. Nevermind, looks like it became a mid-Atlantic special.
Thor
Member
Womp
Yea 18z EPS sucks, took a nod towards the GFS at H5, confluence is flying out the door
This is the last model we've got right now. If this goes North at 00Z we can probably hang it up.
Didn't realize Rah NWS was still fairly bullish hmmm
The next system will also emanate from the SW US and lift atop the
sub-tropical ridge on Wednesday, but with more downstream blocking,
the shortwave maintains more amplitude and moves further east,
inducing stronger cyclogenesis off the carolina coast by Thursday.
1040mb high pressure over eastern Canada is also in better position
to phase cold air with moisture associated with the shortwave. The
GFS is much more amplified with the shortwave and surface low, and
correspondingly produces a lot of precip than the weaker and more
suppressed ECWMF. Thermal profiles would support wintry precip
across the northern half of the CWA on Thursday, but confidence in
details remains very low given the shortwave and jet energy are
still well out over the Pacific NW and thus the storm track is
uncertain.
The next system will also emanate from the SW US and lift atop the
sub-tropical ridge on Wednesday, but with more downstream blocking,
the shortwave maintains more amplitude and moves further east,
inducing stronger cyclogenesis off the carolina coast by Thursday.
1040mb high pressure over eastern Canada is also in better position
to phase cold air with moisture associated with the shortwave. The
GFS is much more amplified with the shortwave and surface low, and
correspondingly produces a lot of precip than the weaker and more
suppressed ECWMF. Thermal profiles would support wintry precip
across the northern half of the CWA on Thursday, but confidence in
details remains very low given the shortwave and jet energy are
still well out over the Pacific NW and thus the storm track is
uncertain.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How did the nam look? I know it probably doesn't go out far enough
Not everywhere not yet anyway haha
NCSNOW
Member
It is #2 best model at verification,right behind euro thats bouncing around somewhat.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if every model goes to crap for one run it’s not gonna be time to throw in the towel. We still have 2.5-3 days for things to trend better or worse