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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
WE TOSS THE ICON View attachment 67061
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This sudden piece of the PV over south-central Canda that's popped up on the 12z vs. 00z ICON totally kills any synoptic forcing for descent --> building of high pressure over SE Canada. We don't want that around. Other models (inc. the earlier ICON) retrograde this piece westward.

If it's any consolation, we should be able to pick up on whether or not this will continue to be a problem relatively quickly- comparing the 12z and 00z ICON, early differences start becoming apparent as soon as hour 72. We'll probably know in the next day or so if this is a legit wrench in the machine.
 
The ICON was worse but our wound up PV lobe that was supposed to hang out near the Hudson Bay is approaching the US-Canadian border at day 4 and a few more runs of it dipping south will suppress the storm (again) at least initially
 
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RVD said:
This sudden piece of the PV over south-central Canda that's popped up on the 12z vs. 00z ICON totally kills any synoptic forcing for descent --> building of high pressure over SE Canada. We don't want that around. Other models (inc. the earlier ICON) retrograde this piece westward.

If it's any consolation, we should be able to pick up on whether or not this will continue to be a problem relatively quickly- comparing the 12z and 00z ICON, early differences start becoming apparent as soon as hour 72. We'll probably know in the next day or so if this is a legit wrench in the machine.
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That would be quite brutal if we lost a system to a random piece of energy in Canada, lol
 
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Honestly I don’t want the models painting us with the highest snow total this far out ... I still love the 12z models cause they all are showing this storm ... specifics are just specifics and they won’t get specific until 3 days out .. for now we ponder over ensembles and hope we have operational eye candy
 
Webberweather53 said:
Vort max travels right along I-40 on the GFS and there's less confluence over the NE US this run at day 4, thus a mid-Atlantic (VA-centric) hit. Needs to be near I-20 or this is a no go for NC folks
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We need more ridging to the west to push this thing southward.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Honestly I don’t want the models painting us with the highest snow total this far out ... I still love the 12z models cause they all are showing this storm ... specifics are just specifics and they won’t get specific until 3 days out .. for now we ponder over ensembles and hope we have operational eye candy
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I'd actually prefer it to be waaay south at this juncture. We've had no problems with systems showing up in the mid-range all fall and winter. We just need a cold press, which we've been sorely lacking. I'm not worried about whether or not a storm will be there in the end. It likely will be. But if we're borderline now, then that probably isn't going to work out well.

Northern stream shortwaves that dip in and screw up confluence are typical, like what's being advertised here. Hopefully, it's wrong.
 
SnowNiner said:
If the UK and the EURO stay suppressed/cold we're still in the game. IF.
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It's clear looking at ensembles and OP runs there isn't a consensus yet. Once we begin to see OP runs locking in to a similar solution run after run, that is a sign models are figuring things out. With the energy out of the Pac NW and all the key components to this setup, expect some volatility in the runs the next 24 hours or so. Timing will be key on this one as well.
 
Kinda unrelated, but I finally got around to making this really sick map of the most recent 1 foot+ snowstorm at every location in NC. Few have been waiting longer to see a foot of snow on the ground than residents like me in Fayetteville, Dunn, & Smithfield. Parts of Scotland, northern Robeson, & southern Hoke counties probably haven't seen a foot of snow since the great Mar 1927 storm.

Most recent 1 foot+ snowstorm NC Snowmap.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Kinda unrelated, but I finally got around to making this really sick map of the most recent 1 foot+ snowstorm at every location in NC. Few have been waiting longer to see a foot of snow on the ground than residents like me in Fayetteville, Dunn, & Smithfield. Parts of Scotland, northern Robeson, & southern Hoke counties probably haven't seen a foot of snow since the great Mar 1927 storm.

View attachment 67078
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This is kind of awesome
 
Webberweather53 said:
Kinda unrelated, but I finally got around to making this really sick map of the most recent 1 foot+ snowstorm at every location in NC. Few have been waiting longer to see a foot of snow on the ground than residents like me in Fayetteville, Dunn, & Smithfield. Parts of Scotland, northern Robeson, & southern Hoke counties probably haven't seen a foot of snow since the great Mar 1927 storm.

View attachment 67078
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Good job, really cool
 
GFS goes from a foot here to almost an inch the next run and hits VA instead. UK is way down in SC. Seems we're all over the place right now with the location of the storm. At least we have one now that looks like a legit threat for a lot of folks.
 
packfan98 said:
Euro is a little further north and faster with our 500mb setup out to hr126. Looks like it's going to be south of the GFS, but north of the UKMET. Let see the details in a minute.
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I think I'd be fine if the Euro can come in the middle of the GFS and UK.
 
Nope.
 

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SD said:
This is kind of awesome
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Thanks. Crazy as this sounds but prior to Jan 2000, the last 12"+ storm for you & @Rain Cold was actually Mar 1927.


In the last 90+ years, there has only been one 12"+ storm in both of your locations

That really puts things into perspective.

As you'd probably expect there's a big drop off in 12"+ storm frequency as you go SE across Wake County & that's not just in the modern era either
 
packfan98 said:
Weak and out to sea. I'm fine with it. I didn't want to see it amped up and north like the GFS and Canadian. I'd put more weight into the UKMET and Euro. The EPS trends are the most important thing at this lead time though.
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Yeah but I think the problem is with blocking in place, without some NS energy injected into it and amplification you end up with suppression and not much qpf to work with.... we walk a fine line here
 
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