L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How did the 06z gefs look?
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Yeah they did.
Tarheelwx
Member
Quite a few blanks in there for central NC. A couple of big dogs are bringing up the average.
TW
(edit) - make that at least half are blanks for the triad area. Other Piedmont areas are roughly the same.
TW
(edit) - make that at least half are blanks for the triad area. Other Piedmont areas are roughly the same.
Here's WRAL's current take:
Snow possible late next week, but too early to tell :: WRAL.com
Snow possible late next week, but too early to tell :: WRAL.com
I’d say Sunday a thread could be needed, right @metwannabe ?
6Z GFS tried to get the northern stream to dive in earlier - that was close to a much bigger run. It seems like the two best options for the storm are either 1) have the southern wave slow down and allow the high to build in faster or 2) have this northern wave speed up and interact with the wave to drive in some very cold air and set off bombogenesis off the coast.
Agree but I'd say wait until then and if after the 12z models Sunday things still look good..... fire it up
I have about 10 hits out of 30 on those panels. But all are pretty solid coverings with those though.
Am I wrong in thinking with the 2nd option we do run the risk of it being a little more N/NW?
Deep
ajr
Member
I noticed this past year that as soon as I told my wife snow might be coming, the models trended against us in a big way. So this year, I'm going to do my part and not tell her snow is coming until I see it falling.
No, you're definitely right about that. But, with the amount of cold that would be injected into the storm, I think we would easily rake in the snow. In fact, I think that type of solution would likely put your area in the bullseye and probably for some pretty incredible totals if it happened.
06z EPS looked looked like it was about to be be pretty good, 0C 850s were crashing down (Ends at hour 144) 
Something I liked from the WRAL video is how they broke down the tracking of winter storms. At day 7-9 all you can really do is look at the pattern. The details are really useless at this range. Then at day 5-7 you're looking at the trends (up or down). Finally below day 5 you're looking at timing and precip types. This could help guide us for when we create a thread.; which I think should always be at or after day 5.
Here is where I live circled in red. Always battling the warm noseif this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point.
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if this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point. 
Morehead City, Harkers Island?
You’re the man!!
34 out of 50 ensemble members. Quite a few big dogs too. Looks really nice to see.
Definitely like seeing that high in PA. It’s not very strong but it’s in a great spot.
znel52
Member
Newport, just West of Morehead City. Morehead is a 6 or 7 minute drive from my house.
Still a decent spread mid 20s to mid 30s depending on model/ensemble
The thread tho ? (click and read it)
Friend of mine was the fire chief in Newport for a short period of time.
iGRXY
Member
Crying at him getting called a wishcaster because the H5 is lining up with a previous year that developed a large storm. ?
Tramadoc special.
LickWx
Member
You know what I just realized? Brick may have been right, it does need to be 70 to snow. The warm day has trended warmer ahead of the storm, while models trended also more towards snow. Could it be, that having a stronger ridge ahead of the storm has the downstream affect of more digging for our system? Or, the more the system digs the more upstream ridging? I think Brick was right.
SnowNiner
Member
Nice trends overnight. I like that the UKMET is closer to the GFS solution, and that the EURO trended to the GFS as well. From the overnight runs, I think eastern NC is put in a good place. Still not sold western/central NC will be cold enough when the low is in the gulf. Let's hope the good trends continue today.
WE TOSS THE ICON 
12z Icon is a no go. High toi far north.
This trend on it (the ICON) is cringe with the N/S energy and confluence
It’s hard to really zero in any operational model still. Remember last night’s ICON had a crippling Ice Storm for the NC southern Piedmont. There’s just no trend on them right now either way.
Could today be the day I hit 60 degrees for the first time this year ?
If not today 1/28 looks good
If we don’t hit it today or Tuesday, we’ll probably go through January without a 60 degree day.
GFS so far looks like a nod to the icon at H5