Yeah we’re tossing this cmc run
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Screw you CMC foh 
Coastal blizzard conditions depicted here
iGRXY
Member
So we’re 2/3 so far for winter storms on tonight’s runs. Hopefully the GEFS comes in similar to the OP
NCSNOW
Member
That thing is gonna be the thorn in our side. Id just assume it would disappear.
Hmmm maybe the CMC isn’t complete garbage, couple more trends of this and the N/S energy is outa here, but this still sucks 
I’d like to see this thing on top of Larry and Phil tomorrow at 12z to give me some wiggle room
NorthGaWinter4
Member
I usually hate when NC cashed in and i don’t but my goodness i hope y’all do! What a potential!
Clem282340
Member
Is that all snow in the upstate or there mixing in the snowfall maps and do you think the high pressure will trend colder the closer we get so that ne ga can get in on it as well
UK was a bit warm at H85 but looked good 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Get the main vort max to track a little more south and have the northern stream back a little west and interact sooner... you basically get mar 1927 lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just a quick reminder what mar 1927 looked like
?
?
When comparing 850, the UKMET is the furthest south. I remember it having a south/left bias, although I haven't really seen that for a long time. The CMC is an outlier for now.
UKMET is also the fastest, which may be part of why it was a little warmer (less time for cold to build in). Still looked like it was about to produce though with that northern stream about to dive in.
CMC ensemble snow mean looks better fwiw
CMC op is a piece of absolute garbage. I am legit happier that it does not show the same solution as the GFS/ICON/UKMET - to me, that actually lends credibility to those solutions. And I'd say the same thing if it was the one showing what the GFS was showing. Last 4 runs are evidence enough that it has absolutely no clue what is going on regardless of how this ultimately plays out.
John1122
Member
Tennessee was nailed by that 1927 event as well. Chattanooga got 12 inches. 10 in Knoxville. Even as far West as Nashville got 4 inches or so. Was it just overall colder? Better HP to the north? Just wondering how close this might be on this side of the Apps and what it would take for a repeat of that here.
I feel like March 1927 is wishcasting to an extent. Lots of folks are going to be disappointed if they associate that storm with this potential, even if it is a big one.
The Euro so far looks like it may pull an ICON. The piece of the TPV doesn’t get out of the way like the GFS, but is far enough north that it can stay out of the way. Better than 12z.
Yup! Through hr 156:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well yes the exact amounts sure but you can not deny that this setup isn’t similar because it 100% is. Take the Mar 1927 storm cut the totals by 2/3rds or what not you’re probably not too unreasonable in terms of expectations. That of course is still a lot of snow.
Been saying this all along but if If we play all our cards right, a mar 1927 lite storm is on the table
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
06z gfs reiterates the face that eastern/northeastern nc is going to get hit hard.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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6z GFS, still looking good! View attachment 67041
6z GFS 10:1 snow at hour 165:
Clem282340
Member
Wow 0z gfs had it snowing in the upstate and on the 6z gfs there nothing
The 6z GFS (compared to 0z) low was quicker and shifted northeast which caused the highest QPF to shift NE, but we'll be seeing these shifts for the next few days. Hopefully not just shifting north.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
What are the chances that ratios actually end up being 10:1 ?
Looking at the 6z GFS, surface temps are below freezing for the N. Piedmont into the N. Coastal Plain of NC. RDU looks to be 29/30 during a good portion of the event. So maybe 10:1 for those areas. **Of course atmospheric temps play a roll as well
Rah NWS putting out a HWO already for potential wintry is pretty bullish on their part. Rn/sn in forecast too.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
You are in a really good spot imo
NCSNOW
Member
6z Nam @ 84 Compared to the 6zGFS at hr 84. The Nam has the TPV lobe futher east out ahead. Has in the great Lakes area as oppossed to NW of there. If that booger is around it needs to be on top of the GL like Webber said yesterday. Id rather see it out of the continental Picture all together on the models at H5 like the GFS has shown personally. "Whatever It Takes" Hopefully we can thread this needle right. Everyone on this board is past due & deserves to get plastered once for a change.
Yep same for my location. Here's the HWO:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-231200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
432 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Low pressure forecast to track across the southeastern United States
will result in the potential for wintry precipitation Wednesday night
and Thursday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
And here is RAH:
Beyond Wednesday, another upper wave will lift through the Plains
from the Southwest as a surface low again moves through the Deep
South and Southeast. There is again good moisture advection off the
Gulf with this system, but more interesting will be the potential
for some wintry precipitation over the area as the low moves through
the Southeast on Thursday. Obviously this will depend on the
temperature, track of the low and available moisture (all of which
are too difficult to pin down at this time). For now will continue
to watch this system but have introduced a chance for rain or snow
across the northern Piedmont and far northeast Coastal Plain.
Beyond Wednesday, another upper wave will lift through the Plains
from the Southwest as a surface low again moves through the Deep
South and Southeast. There is again good moisture advection off the
Gulf with this system, but more interesting will be the potential
for some wintry precipitation over the area as the low moves through
the Southeast on Thursday. Obviously this will depend on the
temperature, track of the low and available moisture (all of which
are too difficult to pin down at this time). For now will continue
to watch this system but have introduced a chance for rain or snow
across the northern Piedmont and far northeast Coastal Plain.
DadOfJax
Member
The upper midwest is about to load up! Time for a road trip!
znel52
Member
Here is where I live circled in red. Always battling the warm nose 
if this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point.
Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
if this did happen I assume we would get changeover to snow at some point. Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member