Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Ollie Williams]

Anybody have the 18z eps? I can’t remember how far out they go on the 6z/18z.

A bit worse than 12z. Much worse than the GFS/GEFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Completely different

 

[Ollie Williams]

Completely different View attachment 66953View attachment 66954View attachment 66955View attachment 66956

I unfortunately, will go with the Euro for now since it does better with the major synoptic things.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I unfortunately, will go with the Euro for now since it does better with the major synoptic things.

Yeah GFS/GEFS May be to progressive with that N/S energy, the euro honestly isn’t to horrible but we need that energy over the GLs rather than that far north

 

[Ollie Williams]

From RAH:

Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another
southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by
Thursday. This would result in another period of CAD and well below
normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather
based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over
eastern Canada. In the case of both of next weeks systems, and
particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of
interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is
below average.

 

[LickWx]

Completely different View attachment 66953View attachment 66954View attachment 66955View attachment 66956

Models have been a rollercoaster ... unlike our weather !

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Yeah, but you never want to be in the bullseye this far out

Beats being south of the bullseye. Cougb Columbia SC cough.

 

[KyloG]

Haven't really looked too much at the details the past couple of days but you can see the glaring difference between the GFS/Euro over the pole.

 

[KyloG]

UK looks pretty good....not quite as good as the GFS but solid.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 66961

Temps gonna get in the 60s days before the event ???

 

[iGRXY]

Through 129 on the Icon the Vort looks to be further south through northern Texas. Colder push as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon probably about have a winter storm, pretty classic Miller B/CAD look right there

 

[iGRXY]

Much more CAD compared to 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much more CAD compared to 12z

Lights out ICON run incoming

 

[iGRXY]

The difference at 18z from the 12z ICON to the 0Z is mhmmm close to 20 degrees with moisture coming in and temps at freezing or in the mid 30’s.

 

[Ollie Williams]

This looks good!

 

[KyloG]

Yikes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, icon verbatim is a ice event around 85 with snow north, still loading

 

[iGRXY]

You account for the warm bias and that’s likely a crippling ice storm from the upstate north. Temps got down to freezing and we’re hovering around 36 right before the event so not good.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 66974View attachment 66975View attachment 66976

Rather startling taking into account the warm bias the ICON has with 2m temps.

 

[iGRXY]

Really wish you could see midlevel temperatures on the 0z and 12z ICON. But that was a classic ICE storm look from the upstate North. Snow likely north of I40.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rather startling taking into account the warm bias the ICON has with 2m temps.

I find it interesting how it handled the TPV, it just threw it away back into Canada into the block, but yeah this is a pretty classic look for NC/VA

 

[Chandler]

Not bad!

 

[iGRXY]

Rather startling taking into account the warm bias the ICON has with 2m temps.

And take into account if we end up with a Miller B/CAD setup (I’ve been leaning towards this for a couple days if we were to see any wintry weather at all) that you’re basically got a very warm biased model showing right at or below freezing temperatures this far out and CAD almost always trends colder and how poor globals handle it. That’s not a very good sign at all.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I find it interesting how it handled the TPV, it just threw it away back into Canada into the block, but yeah this is a pretty classic look for NC/VAView attachment 66978

We certainly need it to go away entirely IMHO.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We certainly need it to go away entirely IMHO.

It could aid us in a complete different sort of setup, if it’s strung out initially, passes under the block, then crashing down from Canada and trying to phase with our S/W, and that provides a big event, or you get the in between, which sucks donkey ----, or you get it to completely go away and brush it under the rug and get a CAD/miller B setup
Fun times !!!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Chazwin]

Rather startling taking into account the warm bias the ICON has with 2m temps.

Yes it is. Take 3-4 degrees off these temperatures and you have upper 20s down into the upstate and mid 20s for Charlotte metro. Also the winds would be coming from the NE in a fashion that keeps the cold funneling in. Hate to say it, but Charlotte metro is way overdue for a major ice storm.

 

[iGRXY]

Our wave is slower this run compared to the 18z and 12z

 

[KyloG]

Day 6 on UK

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah GFS isn’t gonna as good, track is further north so far vs 18z, could be wrong tho

 

[iGRXY]

Precip definitely slower on the GFS

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yeah GFS isn’t gonna as good, track is further north so far vs 18z, could be wrong tho View attachment 66984

I wouldn't freak out. The thing that scares me is the TPV. That doesn't look to be a problem, although this run looks different.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much weaker wave so far

 

[iGRXY]

The wave is much slower this run.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don't hate the look at 850

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wait a minute lol

 

[Chandler]

Looks better to me
850s colder at hr 156