Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Ollie Williams]

Interesting thread — take away seems to be that the MA should be more excited than we are (what else is new?):

I believe that's with the first system.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Almost a late February look on the GFS


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[superjames1992]

Or other things... imagine a solid winter storm where we are flying blind and can’t radar watch lol. That’s torture

Well, that’s something we don’t have to worry about, at least. modernweenie

 

[NCSNOW]

12z Euro our Vort is way futher east at 120, compared to 0z. Also NS Vort is wound up,lot stronger.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

euro so far looks better, let’s see what that N/S energy does

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z Euro definitely looks better than the GFS

 

[NCSNOW]

Might get interesting here in a second: heres surface

 

[NCSNOW]

HP Stronger down into NC at 150-156: see if its enough here. VA should do well in a second

 

[iGRXY]

Nice 1034 HP on the US border and a 1037 pushing southeast into the Midwest. Lord don’t fail us now.

 

[Webberweather53]

The PV lobe over Manitoba is much more wound up on the 12z Euro than this morning's run. We are riding a fine line here because we want enough of a PV lobe to put a dent into the northern flank of the SE ridge, but if it's too strong earlier on, the PV lobe will be more apt to retrograde west or remain stationary instead of getting shunted SEward like we want towards southern Quebec & Ontario.

 

[NCSNOW]

LP jumps from Johnson City up to Columbus OH . Ugh

NVM Transforms OFF Coast NC

 

[Webberweather53]

Personally not super thrilled by this look, it's basically one step away from going to pure garbage like the GFS.

We need the main wave to be over TN, N AL, N GA not the OH Valley

 

[iGRXY]

She looked good there for a minute and decided to go to hell in a hand basket. Hopefully it’s just the models usual medium range shake up

 

[NCSNOW]

Bombs away Off Coast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Personally I think the MA has much better odds with this one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Pretty icy here on this euro run.

 

[Webberweather53]

Would be nice if we had another storm coming hot on this one's heels, at least we'd have a giant snowpack to our north to help funnel & lock in low-level cold air but we can't have nice things.

 

[Stormdoc]

Geez, Euro bombs it out again sub 980 low off the coast. Oh the potential here (and disappointment)

 

[EastAtlwx]

Would be nice if we had another storm coming hot on this one's heels, at least we'd have a giant snowpack to our north to help funnel & lock in low-level cold air but we can't have nice things.

Lol I literally was thinking this like 2 minutes ago..

 

[Cary_Snow95]

If this trend continues into 12z tomorrow we can go ahead and write it off

 

[Webberweather53]

Big Aleutian Ridge = SE ridge gonna woof >>> blowtorch city

 

[JakkelWx]

I am loving that euro run. Shades of Feb 1979

 

[LickWx]

Big Aleutian Ridge = SE ridge gonna woof >>> blowtorch cityView attachment 66893

Yeah but we have seen that a lot , though it seems it may be slowly climbing it’s way out of fantasy range this time for real.

 

[LickWx]

I am loving that euro run. Shades of Feb 1979

You are in Maryland , certainly looks good for you lol. Your climo is a solid 6-7 degrees colder than much of the forum in winter on average with something like 16-18 inches of snow on average in winter I’d wager ?

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah but we have seen that a lot , though it seems it may be slowly climbing it’s way out of fantasy range this time for real.

I'd say it's for real this time, Maritime Continent forcing in late winter doesn't have the same meaning as it does early on

 

[Ollie Williams]

Lol, winter in CA! Around a 300 inch max.

 

[Webberweather53]

12z EPS looks better than the operational euro, op GFS, & GEFS thru day 5 w/ our PV lobe over central Canada

 

[Snowfan]

Lol, winter in CA! Around a 300 inch max.
View attachment 66897

Time to take a trip to CA lol

 

[Sandbar]

Lol, winter in CA! Around a 300 inch max.
View attachment 66897

We did cold weather training in mammoth lake california back around 2010 I believe and got close to 4 feet in a little over 24 hours. Craziest thing I ever saw. Afghanistan had some crazy storms too up in the high elevations

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Euro Ens looks pretty wintry in the CAD regions based on the maps I can see

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Lol, winter in CA! Around a 300 inch max.
View attachment 66897

That's a crazy sharp snow gradient ! Goes from nothing to 100+ inches in like 30 miles.

 

[Webberweather53]

First & foremost, we need to shift the main wave further south to have a real chance to get clocked in NC, a track along the I-64 corridor is great if you're in DC-BAL-PHL, spells cold rain or icy cold rain for GSO-RDU-CLT

 

[Webberweather53]

I am loving that euro run. Shades of Feb 1979

Yeo, it's actually got some similarities to Presidents Day 1979 setup except it's much warmer overall.

We had a near 1050mb high over the Great Lakes leading up to that storm which helped deliver enough low-level cold to produce big snows in NC despite the less than ideal z500 vort track. We're almost definitely gonna see nothing like that here unfortunately.

 

[Webberweather53]

We do have one thing going for us, the strong -WPO on the EPS actually shifts the coldest air in the means towards our side of the pond/N America in early February

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Interesting thread — take away seems to be that the MA should be more excited than we are (what else is new?):

I know Anthony (HM) knows his stuff but I wish it meant more to me than just this.......

Долоо хоногийн эхэн үеийн системийн талаар сонирхолтой зүйлийг дурьдах нь: NE PAC-ээс SE Ridge руу өндөр тропопаузын үед гарч болзошгүй өндөр температур (мөн циклон түүнтэй хамт зугаалах болно). Бүх загварт ийм загвар байдаг, гэхдээ би ая тухтай байлгах үүднээс 6z GFS ашиглаж байна.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is a pretty insane -WPO on the EPS, esp considering this is a day 11 ensemble mean.

 

[Chazwin]

If this trend continues into 12z tomorrow we can go ahead and write it off

Normally I would agree with you in a heartbeat, but we’ve seen too many big flip flops in the models, especially the op runs, inside 5-6 days out the last few weeks.

 

[iGRXY]

Gotta know this was expected. Don’t know of too many wall to wall model runs that keep a storm all the way through. They always lose them at some point to bring them back around the day 3-4 range. Let’s see if it happens here

 

[FallsLake]

Gotta know this was expected. Don’t know of too many wall to wall model runs that keep a storm all the way through. They always lose them at some point to bring them back around the day 3-4 range. Let’s see if it happens here

I agree, we just need patience. Most of us have seen this show before.

From RAH:
Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another
southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by
Thursday. This would result in another period of CAD and well below
normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather
based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over
eastern Canada. In the case of both of next weeks systems, and
particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of
interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is
below average.