I love warm models. They temper my snowfall expectations.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
?
The 12z ICON is going for it
The 12z ICON is going for it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z ICON is about what I wanted to see in terms of s/w track. DWD-ICON's warm bias + a little more northern stream interaction would make that setup colder.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NC was real close to getting pasted on this run
What is the deal with the paltry amount of precip across NC? I would think the precip shield would have been much more expansive than that.
I wonder what temps aloft are, because i’m sure this would probably be snow at 33 degrees if it’s cold enough aloft 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not too worried about the model precip fields this far out, just need to get the synoptic setup how we want it first and then if that occurs, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yea verbatim I’d say that’s probably wet snow
Geez the differences with that N/S energy in Canada 
packfan98
Moderator
HP is in a much more favorable position to funnel in the CAD on the 12z GFS at hr132 compared to 6z run.
packfan98
Moderator
HP looks great! Getting the cold air in before the storm.
Back to a more miller B/CAD look 
Going to be a bad run like 00z ICON. Low pressure is in the Ohio valley.
Disgusting 
Epic rainstorm
packfan98
Moderator
Yep, no winter weather to speak of in the SE on this run. Back to the drawing board. Hopefully the next run it will move our s/w further south. Too bad the Para doesn't seem to be running. I am curious to see what the UKMet has since we are finally getting into it's range.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep. Vort max is way too far north over the OH Valley & lower Great Lakes. Need it to be much further south like the 12z ICON
iGRXY
Member
I am not counting my chickens before they hatch but it just seems like a Miller B/CAD setup is our most common storm type around here these last several years and I am just thinking that is where we trend. Temps are fluctuating in the mid 30's so that's pretty good this far out as CAD also trends colder and is underdone by globals. It's been so hard to get a consistent overrunning or Miller A track or get N/S energy to trend south to introduce better cold aloft so I am betting on the CAD setup for right now. That also doesn't mean ICE either. It easily could be that nasty cold rain like the 12z GFS just showed.
GFS is throwing the confluence away quickly 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Biggest issue you see right off the bat w/ the 12z GFS is the northern stream wave is so far north, having it up near northern Manitoba instead of the Great Lakes obviously means there's nothing to suppress the SW US wave so it shoots towards the Lakes.
Everyone just take a deep breath and remember it's just one run of the operational GFS, these kind of model errors w/ waves in the northern branch of the jet are common in the medium range.
Everyone just take a deep breath and remember it's just one run of the operational GFS, these kind of model errors w/ waves in the northern branch of the jet are common in the medium range.
iGRXY
Member
Watching it I had a bad feeling seeing that much ridging out ahead of it in the south central and central US. Just screamed cutter to the GL
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That kind of ridging doesn't really matter if the northern stream waves are in the right spot.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is the moment of truth right here in general sense. Does a big chunk of this PV lobe over northern Manitoba slide to the SE underneath the Baffin Bay block like the ICON & previous GFS runs have showed or does it hang back towards Saskatchewan? It's pretty much anyone's guess at this point, but the answer to that question determines whether we get a storm or not.
GEFS has a more miller Bish look again, nothing set in stone here
Cary_Snow95
Member
Worth mentioning that the 00z Euro also had the low up in Ohio
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Damn a pure bomb ~200 miles east of Hatteras.
Folks, keep in mind that about half of that over MA is from the first system. Here's the second:
Chasecation 2021 ?
ajr
Member
SSW = sudden severe weather.
UKMET looked solid 
ajr
Member
Interesting thread — take away seems to be that the MA should be more excited than we are (what else is new?):
NCSNOW
Member
12z Ukmet: Need a Harder Press up North as Webb was alluding to
Nice track but N/S isn’t as ideal
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
*Worth noting the CMC ENS can be to cold and show more ice then reality* but this is what it looks like 
NCSNOW
Member
Agree . Think Webb has Identified the answer to whether we get the goods or not. It shows around hr 120 onward. It will be all about the N/S lobe and its position. Ukmet at that last frame had good Cad building down into NC looking at DPs, NE Wind barbs etc. Well see , but we are sitting on the fence and the pendullum usually trends/swings unfavorably for us at this juncture.