I love warm models. They temper my snowfall expectations.
Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
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The 12z ICON is going for it
The 12z ICON is going for it
The 12z ICON is about what I wanted to see in terms of s/w track. DWD-ICON's warm bias + a little more northern stream interaction would make that setup colder.
NC was real close to getting pasted on this run
What is the deal with the paltry amount of precip across NC? I would think the precip shield would have been much more expansive than that.
I wonder what temps aloft are, because i’m sure this would probably be snow at 33 degrees if it’s cold enough aloft 
Not too worried about the model precip fields this far out, just need to get the synoptic setup how we want it first and then if that occurs, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
Yea verbatim I’d say that’s probably wet snow
I am glad that there is a lot of consensus between most models. While I am cautiously optimistic, I can't help but wish we weren't 7 days out. We all know how quickly things change around here.
HP is in a much more favorable position to funnel in the CAD on the 12z GFS at hr132 compared to 6z run.
HP looks great! Getting the cold air in before the storm.
Going to be a bad run like 00z ICON. Low pressure is in the Ohio valley.
Yep, no winter weather to speak of in the SE on this run. Back to the drawing board. Hopefully the next run it will move our s/w further south. Too bad the Para doesn't seem to be running. I am curious to see what the UKMet has since we are finally getting into it's range.
Yep. Vort max is way too far north over the OH Valley & lower Great Lakes. Need it to be much further south like the 12z ICON
I am not counting my chickens before they hatch but it just seems like a Miller B/CAD setup is our most common storm type around here these last several years and I am just thinking that is where we trend. Temps are fluctuating in the mid 30's so that's pretty good this far out as CAD also trends colder and is underdone by globals. It's been so hard to get a consistent overrunning or Miller A track or get N/S energy to trend south to introduce better cold aloft so I am betting on the CAD setup for right now. That also doesn't mean ICE either. It easily could be that nasty cold rain like the 12z GFS just showed.