• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

1611233239474.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

View attachment 66811
Click to expand...
Glad that we went away from the ice/pure miller B look, I was getting convinced that we were headed to that yesterday
 
ajr said:


The top-right is a composite of the east-based NAO... not ideal.

View attachment 66812
Click to expand...

Ollie Williams said:
MSLP wise, the ICON had a big old low-pressure system in the Ohio Valley. The GFS looks good.
Edit: Certainly much less of a high press on the GFS, however, much better than
the ICON.
Click to expand...
Have we gotten the first cross polar flow that was showing up 2 weeks ago after the last PV split?
 
Webberweather53 said:
We just need one of these waves in the northern branch of the jet over SE Canada to drop down towards our s/w before it exits into the Atlantic & our main s/w to come a little further south and we'd have a much bigger injection of cold air + stronger storm w/ more QPF further south >> blockbuster snowstorm in NC. It's half maddening to think we are so close synoptically to pulling of a Mar 1927-lite storm if we play our cards right lol

View attachment 66811
Click to expand...
Here’s another map for Vorticity, and Geopotential:

MSLP
 
Ollie Williams said:
Here’s another map for Vorticity, and Geopotential:

MSLP
Click to expand...


Oh wow I forgot about these, they look amazing btw! I honestly wasn't kidding when I said this setup was actually pretty close overall haha, we just need a few bounces to go our way the next couple days.

For us NC folks to cash in on the big fish here, we need to root for our main s/w to track thru the I-20 corridor instead of over KS-MO-TN/KY and sooner northern stream involvement so that more cold air gets injected into our storm and it amplifies/slows the system as result of the interaction, increasing the QPF and prolonging the potential for heavy wintry precipitation.
 
ajr said:
This is neat... big picture, though, it looks like in 1927 we were getting the 510mb line (!) into NC... our setup looks nowhere near close to getting that kind of cold:

View attachment 66818
Click to expand...

That doesn't occur until after the storm has already left NC, and we don't need that kind of cold to get injected into this storm in late January to make it happen. Our climo in late January is ~7-8F colder now than in early March
 
It’s been unbelievably snowy since November one county north or west of me. Massive crowds and buying out all the ski resorts. Martin Luther King Holiday Weekend sold out everything. Fairly close to an A+ winter up there if they keep the snowpack from thanksgiving to Easter not to mention their white Christmas too. It snows every week. Sometimes every two days. Even this morning when it’s not suppose to.
 
Still think everybody east of the APPS should definitely watch for some form of a winter storm as we are still 6 days away and I don't trust these models beyond 4 days at this point with the amount of flip flopping they do. Definitely rooting for the new GFS as that wouldn't take much to get the Upper 3rd of SC and all of NC in the game for a major snowstorm but around here those Miller B CADs have been the most productive and most common type storms for the last few years. The 0Z run for the New GFS was very nice for Upper SC and all of NC. Hopefully we can continue these trends and get away from the Miller B ICE scenario but don't be worried if the models go to hell and a hand basket over the next 48 hours only to then come back with the storm in the day 3-5 range.
 
Also want to point out some research im doing this winter on how the lack of very warm days over North Carolina so far and the absence of thunderstorms this winter. This ties into the amount of ground moisture and fog. All of this compared to previous winters has been very different esp for the Charlotte metro. Usually by now we would see some wild swings in temps (roasting) but it’s been far from a roller coaster in the case of temperatures.
 
The lack of roller coaster swings actually hurts our winter wx chances. Stable temp swings the entire winter and over abundance of ground moisture is a recipe for disaster east of the mtns.
 
It’s obvious the pattern is finally changing tho. Systems are bringing much less water with them as some areas of NC are below normal for the first time in 2 years. (RIP to all those lost their lives in Alexander from flooding). We can still get heavy moisture events in the new pattern tho but some drying out will do us good. Maybe even let the cold air in? We will see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
GFS Para is a Mar 1927 esque solution synoptically, an earlier phase w/ the northern stream and you'll get 2x as much snow in nc. Get that look later in the winter season when the jet stream is weaker/slower and wavelengths are shorter, yikea.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but wouldn't a phase amp the storm up and bring it North, along with the rain/snow line? Or would the NE trough keep the system South and keep it from cutting? Maybe this is a different setup than we usually have.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, but wouldn't a phase amp the storm up and bring it North, along with the rain/snow line? Or would the NE trough keep the system South and keep it from cutting? Maybe this is a different setup than we usually have.
Click to expand...
That piece of N/S energy would drag down significantly colder air especially aloft and keep the storm south
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s obvious the pattern is finally changing tho. Systems are bringing much less water with them as some areas of NC are below normal for the first time in 2 years. (RIP to all those lost their lives in Alexander from flooding). We can still get heavy moisture events in the new pattern tho but some drying out will do us good. Maybe even let the cold air in? We will see.
Click to expand...
Unreal the amount of damage still around my county from the flooding. Will be years before its all put back together.
 
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 9.32.07 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

View attachment 66821
Click to expand...
You see we aren't asking for much. Drop a little energy further south is all we are asking for. Webber even made you a pretty graphic so nothing goes wrong. Please make this happen @God
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm gonna be rooting hard for this northern stream potential vorticity lobe over Ontario on the GFS at day 5 to dig SW towards the Great Lakes/the red dotted area on the image below in coming model runs. I'm not sure if we can get all the way there but even a trend towards it would be nice. If we manage to get it in this spot, it would suppress the SE ridge and force our wave over the Desert SW on a more southward trajectory closer to the I-20 corridor (vs I-64 as it currently stands). It would also inject more cold air into this setup, shift our sfc high further south & strengthen it w/ the additional confluence over the E US provided by the stronger height gradient over the Lakes, NE US, and SE Canada.

View attachment 66821
Click to expand...

The 18z parallel GFS from January 19th is probably the closest model run I've seen to this scenario thus far.

gfsp_z500_vort_us_fh168-204.gif

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-210.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top