Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Way too early for absolutes, we're trending towards an event even in SC.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Way too early for absolutes, we're trending towards an event even in SC.
Mid Atlantic licking their chops here
GEFS is already matching what you typically see with a miller B, more snow around/north of I-40 while you get more mixed stuff towards 85, should be interesting to see how this trends the next few days
Some of this depends on the strength of the high and the depth of the wedge. But yes for now certainly those are the most likely distributions depending on how the high trends.
Gonna need that high to trend stronger and south. Already a close call for most Carolina folks on this board. A few more ticks NW with that low and it’s another heartbreaker.
Trending towards a true Miller B. Which would take a lot of folks, esp in SC, out of the game.
??
SnowNiner
Member
Thats a nice trend today and a decent setup. At this range and the couple days, I'd like to see the ensembles get to 2 inches into SC before I can feel confident. Get blue to my south. Something to watch.
If you get the high stronger it may help to keep the wedge front and corresponding low track along said front further south. One would think. In theory. If nothing else changes. Lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
"those pinks down to CAE give me the feels but it's hard to trust this 9 days out. I will prepare for my 40 degree rain."
I mean, in most wintry CAD events, CAE-FAY-ATL usually gets cold rain or icy cold rain w/ some sleet potentially thrown in esp near the onset.
I mean, in most wintry CAD events, CAE-FAY-ATL usually gets cold rain or icy cold rain w/ some sleet potentially thrown in esp near the onset.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snow cover extent to our north over CAD source regions in the NE US is pretty close to normal for modern mid-winter CAD. Typically wanna see snow pack down to at least the I-70 corridor in PA and looks like we will have that here.
Let’s hope areas up north... cash in the next few days
Honestly I think with that amount of high pressure around this will have some good low level cold with it ... probably fairly persistent as well .. I could see this trending into an ice storm for a larger area but I don’t see a more rainy solution for at least the Piedmont regions of course
That threat popping up is proof that -PNAs aren’t all competely bad, they can certainly give you a active pattern vs a +PNA
iGRXY
Member
More ridging out ahead means a more Miller B low. HP is definitely building in but SC isn’t out of the game for wintry weather but as for snow? Yeah that looks like a long shot for almost everyone south of I40. NE GA and the upstate would likely be almost all ZR and from the border to I40 would be a mix of sleet and ZR. Maybe some onset snow. North of there is where you could get into some 50/50 snow and sleet. But it’s getting that classic ice storm look.
iGRXY
Member
Also to already have your temps right at freezing 7 days out isn’t a good sign as these things almost always trend colder (verbatim if we keep the HP trending stronger and pushing further south). Might be the first true ice storm around here at least. Usually have been either been an ice potential with sleet turning out to be the most precip type or you’re hovering between 31-32 degrees and struggle to get a bunch of ice accrual. To have temps this close this far out is worrisome for me at least.
The most important thing right now to me is that we’re seeing the ingredients there on the modeling, especially the trend of decent high pressure in the northeast. Also there is definitely support for that time period as the EPS has had a signal during it for a few days now. Also I definitely like the trend of wanting to put down more snow cover over the northeast in the next few days as well.
LickWx
Member
That NW trend looks epic ! Hope it continues , this thing went from Bermuda to the coast of South Carolina real fast!
Downeastnc
Member
Check Please.....
Ummmm 
iGRXY
Member
On top of that hardly any moisture made it above I20.
Even SE Wake might see a few flakes on that map!
Wut, ICON has a TPV north of the lakes that screws everything up 
ATLwxfan
Member
Just a reminder we went from this to this 
You know how many times we have heard that
Well so far he has been as good as anybody this year
The Euro had that at last night's 00z run. I'm not buying it.
rekt
Cary_Snow95
Member
Oof GFS has same tpv as the icon
Just go away, damn 
MSLP wise, the ICON had a big old low-pressure system in the Ohio Valley. The GFS looks good.
Edit: Certainly much less of a high press on the GFS, however, much better than the ICON.
Edit: Certainly much less of a high press on the GFS, however, much better than the ICON.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lol nw trend and it’s tracking over NC already. Goodnight
?
It’s better to see it happen now rather than inside nam range at least lol
Certainly not surprising. The location of the low screams NW trend. It ideally needs to be over GA/SC, not NC.
This looks exactly like the cmc a couple nights ago lol
LickWx
Member
Dang bruh from Bermuda to over NC lol. That’s a huge change , expect some chance and correction SW I bet . Flip side there are 70s to the south of me while I freeze and eat 38 degree rain so let’s trend this even more NW. Preferably another 600 miles .