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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
Freaking beautiful View attachment 66713
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Nick_boynton_ said:
This event screams front end thump at the least
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For models to already be showing temps in the mid 30’s with CAD always trending stronger and HP building in, I’d say at least an ICE storm is a very good possibility in at a minimum the CAD areas of NC/SC. NE Georgia is likely to get something going as well the closer we get to the event unless a total meltdown happens.
 
iGRXY said:
For models to already be showing temps in the mid 30’s with CAD always trending stronger and HP building in, I’d say at least an ICE storm is a very good possibility in at a minimum the CAD areas of NC/SC. NE Georgia is likely to get something going as well the closer we get to the event unless a total meltdown happens.
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I wouldn’t say a winter storm/ice storm is a good possibility yet, some models have the boundary not far to our south with 60s, we could easily turn this into a retreating CAD event with severe weather
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wouldn’t say a winter storm/ice storm is a good possibility yet, some models have the boundary not far to our south with 60s, we could easily turn this into a retreating CAD event with severe weather
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Like Webber said, all possibilities are on the table. My point is if we were to see wintry weather I would hash my bets to an ICE event in the CAD area of NC/SC. But this easily could be severe or models flip since this is beyond 5 days and it be sunny. All options are definitely on the table but that's my only point. If we do get a winter storm out of this I would say ICE would likely be the biggest p-type.
 
iGRXY said:
Like Webber said, all possibilities are on the table. My point is if we were to see wintry weather I would hash my bets to an ICE event in the CAD area of NC/SC. But this easily could be severe or models flip since this is beyond 5 days and it be sunny. All options are definitely on the table but that's my only point. If we do get a winter storm out of this I would say ICE would likely be the biggest p-type.
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Yeah, trust me I would love a March 1960 snowmageddon concord NC 12 inch lollipop, but we still have lots of time, models in the medium range Have been a complete disaster, what we have going for us for sure is the big high pressure signal, but storm track and everything is a big question that likely won’t be answered until day 1-2
 
I could see areas S of 40 getting a quick burst of snow quickly followed by ZR. North of 40 and in the mountains it could be mostly snow with some ZR on the back end as the warm nose appears. Suffice to say it is way early for me to make a hard and fast prediction like I just did :rolleyes: As Webb said though, pretty much everything is on the table at this point
 
If we can shift the shortwave that hands off to the EC towards the PH of Texas/heart of Texas and track it south ? unfortunately a further north solution atm is more likely given the SER poking up a bit, which is why I lean more ice with this sort of setup over snow, but there plenty of options 2C8747B2-A799-4B4C-B52E-99DD644D037E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If we can shift the shortwave that hands off to the EC towards the PH of Texas/heart of Texas and track it south ? unfortunately a further north solution atm is more likely given the SER poking up a bit, which is why I lean more ice with this sort of setup over snow, but there plenty of options View attachment 66733
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While the SER is starting to poke a bit, I think there’s room for it to relax the closer we would get to this time period. Remember a couple days ago when it looked like we were going to sneak in a 60+ degree day next Tuesday?? Now we’re seeing it look like mid 50s may the highest KCLT goes. Obviously the blocking up north is helping with that.
 
Dammed if we do or don't. Miller B means lots more ice and winter weather. Western parts of NC/SC don't want a Miller A transfer to be to quick or we get slotted. How about a nice hand off for all of us...if this is to come to fruition.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If we can shift the shortwave that hands off to the EC towards the PH of Texas/heart of Texas and track it south ? unfortunately a further north solution atm is more likely given the SER poking up a bit, which is why I lean more ice with this sort of setup over snow, but there plenty of options View attachment 66733
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This is actually what the GEFS is trending to

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Just strictly going by Climatology, I still think the north of 40 people will have snow followed by ice while those in the southern and central Piedmont will get both but with a much quicker changeover to ice. Far northern Ga and SC would be mostly ice but there is a long way to go yet and we will see several different solutions before this event occurs.
 
Upstate South Carolina will be left out again unfortunately


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