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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Pennsylvania storm ? book it ?
Normally I would agree, but the medium range changes has been insane this winter, that little snow event/deform band event in NC early January was appearing in the MA on models 3-7 days out, and we’re barely in that window of time
MA is definitely favored tho
 
Lol if the 18z ICON ran out past 120 hrs, this run would have been the best one yet, setup-wise it was an improvement over the 12z.

The key to getting a storm in NC is to have additional confluence & suppression around day 4-5 w/ that northern stream wave over Quebec & Ontario to squash the SE US ridge and encourage our main s/w over the desert SW to take a track further south. We still have a little while to figure this one out.

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Expect a lot of shifts but verbatim the risk area is now into the Low category for warning snow/ice for the mtns (esp northern mtns) into Virginia to start preparing and tracking. Advisory to rain east of NC mtns because I always shift the model output 3 or so counties north to be realistic even the day of works out >90% of the time.
 
Expect a lot of shifts but verbatim the risk area is now into the Low category for warning snow/ice for the mtns (esp northern mtns) into Virginia to start preparing and tracking. Advisory to rain east of NC mtns because I always shift the model output 3 or so counties north to be realistic even the day of works out >90% of the time.

It's way too early even for that, we could still end up getting mild(er) rain and t'storms for areas in the southern coastal plain or just a straight up historic snowstorm lol. Anything in between likely involves ice for many. It's all on the table atm
 
It's way too early even for that, we could still end up getting mild(er) rain and t'storms for areas in the southern coastal plain or just a straight up historic snowstorm lol. Anything in between likely involves ice for many. It's all on the table atm
Lol if our wave gets held back any and Most of the confluence/N/S gets a move on before our held back system arrives = wedges
 
We’re gonna see massive shifts both ways the next few days, just not one consistent one. just looking at it, it simply already looks difficult for models to handle, lol, I mean it’s a wave barreling through a ridge and some random N/S energy nearby/confluence
Just looking at the H5 there is just a ton of moving parts here. I noted 18Z has a stronger 50/50 as well, not surprisingly, plus there are a lot of S/Ws up in northern Canada that I am sure can affect the SE confluence, not to mention the strength of the NAO. Fun times
 
As uncertain as this setup is, the potential ceiling here is extremely high, especially in the coastal plain and eastern piedmont w/ the powerful coastal cyclone that cranks up late in this system's evolution. I've said this before a few days ago, but if we played all our cards right, a Mar 1927-lite event (i.e. slightly lesser version of Mar 1927) is certainly a very real possibility.
 
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