Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[KyloG]

Nice changes on the GEPS in the extended.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Literal pain right now, clouds look exactly the same before it snowed a few days ago (even the virga) but this time I’m probably gonna see rain with some sleet

 

[ATLwxfan]

I still believe that if we are going to get a substantial storm, it's going to "sneak up" on us. Meaning models won't start sniffing it out until 3-4 days out. The 18th time period is something to watch. As stated above, we just need more moisture.

As we’ve seen from today and as we saw from the Great Flizzard of 2020, the GFS underestimates advection.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Just got under a decent return with some light rain, sleet and a few small flakes, but its now basically drizzle
That’s another flizzard, which makes 6, I’m on a roll

 

[sdm47]

I still believe that if we are going to get a substantial storm, it's going to "sneak up" on us. Meaning models won't start sniffing it out until 3-4 days out. The 18th time period is something to watch. As stated above, we just need more moisture.

I've been talking about this window for like 3 days now, so it if it's sneaking up on people, it's because they aren't paying attention. It's a pretty obvious opportunity if it'll just keep trending the right way.

 

[Storm5]

Energy everywhere on the euro

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[ForsythSnow]

Another slightly heavier return and the mix is back. Too bad it's not colder.

 

[ryan1234]

I've been talking about this window for like 3 days now, so it if it's sneaking up on people, it's because they aren't paying attention. It's a pretty obvious opportunity if it'll just keep trending the right way.

I think people are paying attention- but we are so used to getting these storms yanked from us that we are pretty much put up a protective snow barrier, so to speak. Lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol what a change compared to last run

 

[sdm47]

I've been talking about this window for like 3 days now, so it if it's sneaking up on people, it's because they aren't paying attention. It's a pretty obvious opportunity if it'll just keep trending the right way.

In all fairness, it has sort of evolved but it actually is trending in an even better direction where some cold air may be in place before that second wave arrives.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s trying something

 

[Webberweather53]

Really like the changes I'm seeing on the 12z ECMWF thru day 7-8. We're real close to seeing a legit board-wide overrunning event.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This could go big or go home

 

[Webberweather53]

If we can keep building this ridge over NW Canada in later runs like we have been doing, a big low-level sfc high will descend into the northern plains after this frame.

 

[Stormdoc]

Interesting look no doubt.

 

[CaryWx]

Lol what a change compared to last run View attachment 64983View attachment 64984

Uhh..it must have finally sampled the cold air when it got onshore..

 

[Stormdoc]

Strengthen that NE high in tandem with that gulf low and...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 64989
Strengthen that NE high in tandem with that gulf low and we’re in business

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 64989
Strengthen that NE high in tandem with that gulf low and...

Best look in a while I will say.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Now this is what I like to see