That’s the system before the real cold moves in, relax brickAll this bitter cold supposedly coming this weekend and still less than an inch of snow here.
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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LickWx
Member
Can’t speak for the NAO, but the AO should go positive later this month as the stratospheric polar vortex rebuilds . That will eventually translate down to the troposphere , I think the future of the NAO would be uncertain once the AO goes positive . I agree it seems to want to be strongly negative for a 2 week period .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The stratospheric polar vortex takes several weeks-few months to fully rebuild and recover down to the lower stratosphere, it’s not going to suddenly happen once the upper stratosphere starts cooling in a few weeks. All of this favors continued negative nao and ao thru most of February and perhaps lingering into March
LickWx
Member
Yes, hence my eventually will propagate to the troposphere.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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BufordWX
Member
For being 5-10 days out still I’m liking the forecast for my area. Still hoping to squeeze out one single digit low though.
bingcrosbyb
Member
Oh Lord. Don’t tease me like this Euro. You naughty naughty. Best 500 map in winter for south I’ve seen in years.
With a little luck you may have a shot at passing 20 in the next two weeks.
Nerman
Member
Is anything reaching the ground right now up in NC? We've got some tiny little frozen something blowing around in the wind here.
Nothing here .. HRRR has a decent band or two moving through later tonight ... very skeptical on that as I would have to see it start getting going soon to believe it’s true
Shadow of the Apps
Member
Very Light flurries falling currently.
Icon don’t do it
Lol is this about to dump out west 
Jessy89
Member
Icon is definitely the least reliable model. It’s just basically a opening act to the Gfs
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Hmm 
Well this isn’t ideal 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Wow. Maybe we all talked too soon.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Meh. I actually think the icon is decent.
LMAO. Okay
I mean ICON is an iffy model but it still has a heft high pressure feeding in killer low level arctic air
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Nice try Icon...... we aren't buying it.
Stormlover
Member
WTF? Never fails. We get the best setup we've had in ages and this crap comes out. Time to bring out the good ole ignore feature.
I don't think we have anything to worry about atm. It was just one model run of one of the worst models.
Storm5
Member
Jessy89
Member
If the gfs does the same thing. Then
I’ll worry
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I’ll worry
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Stormlover
Member
Went back and looked at the previous 3 ICON runs..they sucked too, so what's the big deal? It was already an outlier. Get a grip folks. Even the best models will flip around this far out, but the pattern, the consensus, the ensembles too, it's all good. Enjoy the ride!
mydoortotheworld
Member
1) It’s the ICON
2) It’s one model run
3) This will change
Don’t Panic™
2) It’s one model run
3) This will change
Don’t Panic™
Wouldn’t shock me if we saw more runs like that, typical with pacific blocking you can get a run like that, not really worried at all
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, hope there is a system after the cold comes in and it's not just bitter cold and dry as usual when it gets that cold here.
LickWx
Member
Throughout the years what I have observed is the snow happens as the cold exits or right before it enters . Notice when our threats are ? Right as the cold is leaving and ahead of any other cold shot .Not when the dang vortex is all the way on top of us lol. No surprise it’s not showing snow when the high pressure is at it’s most and temps and the lowest .
Damn this is not a bad look at all, 
Imo the only reason I don’t like the first system, is because it’s still working with marginal air, normally we don’t get storms before a pattern changes anyways
So close to a whopper phase here 
So that's two runs in a row now that the GFS has backed off on the extreme cold push deep into the south.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yikes. Much warmer run. Icon may be onto something.
Jessy89
Member
It’s not really surprising that the gfs is backing off the extreme cold. But it’s still going to be cold the goal here is snow more so then extreme dry cold
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah the trend to a Aleutian ridge the last runs has been Suspect, don’t want that
Just a bit different from the 18z for Monday afternoon lol.
