• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

SD said:
Should be a fun few days to watch and evolve. That's my concern though
Click to expand...

When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
 
smast16 said:
Nah. We know how this will end. The SER will nudge back a little to buffer us from the core of the cold, and it'll be out as fast as it comes in.
Click to expand...
The thing is the SER has trended weaker the whole winter. The -NAO has really been the driver of our temps this winter. It has kept us in the game by preventing an all out torch, maybe now taking the field with a chance to score a touchdown
 
Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
Click to expand...
The morning euro had a massive ridge with all the cold in the pnw then noon one shoved it 1000+ miles east. That’s massive change which tells ya the models don’t know whats going on.
 
superjames1992 said:
The snowfall mean is pretty pathetic and you know this cold snap is going to come in significantly warmer than expected; we’ll be lucky to break 20.
Click to expand...
Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
 
Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
Click to expand...
Yeah I just can't see the SE ridge building back at D10 on some of the models and not be concerned. Doesn't mean that's what happens but I can't get that excited. I think we get a big cold snap but beyond that it's question marks
 
Last edited:
Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
Click to expand...
Keep in mind that pattern was showing up around day 10-15. Now it's showing up around day 6.
 
Lickwx said:
Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
Click to expand...
We’ve had many cold snaps with lows down in the single digits in the Carolinas. January 2014 and Late December/Early January 2017/18 being the most recent.
 
Chazwin said:
We’ve had many cold snaps with lows down in the single digits in the Carolinas. January 2014 and Late December/Early January 2017/18 being the most recent.
Click to expand...
Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ? 2015,2014,2018,2000, 1985 etc all had snow on the ground if I’m not mistaken with the record lows . Genuinely curious , would take a bit of digging to find out .
 
Last edited:
Here in NW tennessee, the winter has been about average. No terribly cold spells. No real warm ups. Average, or below average precipitation. Feels like something's got to give. Severe weather, big cold spell, or something. Haven;t even had to turn the dog's heat lamp on yet. One good storm and cold snap would be awesome... then bring on Spring!!
 
SD said:
Should be a fun few days to watch evolve, that's my concern though. Short cold shot then SE ridge
Click to expand...
I'm optimistic we won't see a big SE ridge. I don't think the core of the blast will settle over the SE either. But, this will be the first time this winter, assuming the models are correct, that we'll have a real shot at a widespread winter storm. I'm excited to have some real, bonafide cold air in the vicinity for the first time this winter.

Again, if the models are correct, we will have plenty of arctic air on our side of the world and available to tap nearby, and it should be shunted in our direction with no big warm-ups, particularly if the NAO remains favorable, which it looks to do. Plus, the pattern will probably remain active.

We still may foul it off, but it looks like we'll get a fat pitch to hit, with ducks on the pond.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm optimistic we won't see a big SE ridge. I don't think the core of the blast will settle over the SE either. But, this will be the first time this winter, assuming the models are correct, that we'll have a real shot at a widespread winter storm. I'm excited to have some real, bonafide cold air in the vicinity for the first time this winter.

Again, if the models are correct, we will have plenty of arctic air on our side of the world and available to tap nearby, and it should be shunted in our direction with no big warm-ups, particularly if the NAO remains favorable, which it looks to do. Plus, the pattern will probably remain active.

We still may foul it off, but it looks like we'll get a fat pitch to hit, with ducks on the pond.
Click to expand...
If we can get someone to bang on a trash can there’s no way we’ll miss that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top