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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Lickwx said:
Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ?
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I think January 05 or maybe Feb 15
 
Lickwx said:
Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ? 2015,2014,2018,2000, 1985 etc all had snow on the ground if I’m not mistaken with the record lows .
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Yes the two times I pointed out there was no snow cover in the western Piedmont...both times CLT had lows in the 4-8 degree range without any snow cover. A few other times that come to mind right off for CLT metro are Dec. 1989 and January 1994
 
SD said:
I think January 05 or maybe Feb 15
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Jan 05 was close , 11 degrees ! Feb 2015 didn’t come to mind though, I just remember snow lying around for 2 weeks . It hit 7 though and didn’t snow the day before .
 
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CyclonicFury said:
Looks like quite a contrast to recent La Niña Februaries.
View attachment 69608
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These are the La Ninas since 1895 that had -NAO in February against an older, colder, and more relevant base period (for that time) 1895-2000:

It's extremely hit or miss wrt snow here, you have some truly legendary Februarys like 1895 & 1899, some solid ones like Feb 1968, 1965, 1963, and then quite a few duds. Even still, give me this pattern every day of the week and I'll take my chances.

1612142685662.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
These are the La Ninas since 1895 that had -NAO in February against an older, colder, and more relevant base period (for that time) 1895-2000:

It's extremely hit or miss wrt snow here, you have some truly legendary Februarys like 1895 & 1899, some solid ones like Feb 1968, 1965, 1963, and then quite a few duds. Even still, give me this pattern every day of the week and I'll take my chances.

View attachment 69694
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1899 , I don’t even know if it’s possible for something like that again . Ice chunks flowing into the miss by New Orleans , -2 in Tallahassee , Raleigh had a high of 10 which is the coldest ever . It’s so anomalous that the next coldest high for Raleigh is 16... a 6 degree difference . The -2 recorded in Raleigh that February was the record low until we hit -9 in January 1985.
 
Lickwx said:
1899 , I don’t even know if it’s possible for something like that again . Ice chunks flowing into the miss by New Orleans , -2 in Tallahassee , Raleigh had a high of 10 which is the coldest ever . It’s so anomalous that the next coldest high for Raleigh is 16... a 6 degree difference . The -2 recorded in Raleigh that February was the record low until we hit -9 in January 1985.
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Yeah the Jan 1985 cold wave came right at the end of the month & was also ironically after a SSWE like this year. I wouldn't expect an air mass like Feb 1899's but we can get stupid cold in patterns like this as long as we get at least temporary bouts of -EPO/WPO. One of those bouts of -EPO/-WPO is coming the next few days and will help setup this massive cold shot next week that's showing up on the models.
 
Every La Nina since the mid 1980s has featured +NAO in February. Thanks to a strong/persistent -NAO lingering from the sudden stratospheric warming event early in January, this year looks to be a major change of pace & you can basically throw the canonical Feb Nina SE US blowtorch composites out the window

1612143486316.png
 
Lickwx said:
Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
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Nope. Our record here is -8F (1985) and that was without any snowcover.
 
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