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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

JLL1973 said:
he’s probably thinking the extreme cold will suppress the moisture which is often the case in the south
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The timing of the Pacific waves are very important. Getting everything to happen too early will allow for an Aleutian ridge, therefore lower heights to the east and west of a s/w, which again shears it out. So many minor details are not locked in, so don’t be surprised if this run doesn’t produce. If it does, I will admit it, and adjust my thinking.
 
Ass load of energy on the V16 . Looks like it’s gonna get crushed
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Jessy89 said:
If the cold air doesn’t retreat before the storm. Then it be great to have cold here before hand to cool the ground temps


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I really don’t think ground temps are going to be a problem if we do get a storm next week. Soil temps right now in the Piedmont and Upstate are basically right around 40 and we’re not looking at any multiple days of well above normal temperatures between now and the end of next week.
 
The only thing I’ll say is if it does get here earlier. The cold air might be lagging a bit meaning the storm may not produce as wide spread as earlier runs.


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Storm5 said:
Storm is moving up in time . Icon and gfs now have it around Thursday


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Begining to think that boundry , while the press gets hung up,waffles for 5 or 6 days deciding if it wants to dump west verse east, may be a blessing in disguise. Messing with the models for sure.
 
As I was afraid of, the main piece left to quickly, and exposed a little bit of the SER. On the other hand, it wasn’t a major shift like 06z -> 12z. It just goes to show you the volatility of a storm 10 days out.
 
Storm5 said:
That’s a nasty ice storm on the GFS for many


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That would sound about right because of dealing with shallow artic air. Kinda like the feburary 1994 ice storm that did major damage. Hey @Ollie Williams you have animated maps of that storm??
 
ok, so this run...the best thing is we still have a storm signal. I think the thermals would be better than what this run shows..but it doesn't matter right now. Faster storm means a bit warmer, slower (like other runs) we have more of a board wide hit. Either way...great look...lets see what doc NO says tonight.
 
Wow... I mentioned earlier today how much this set up reminds me of February 2014 and then this run tries to be a carbon copy. The lead wave comes thru late next Thursday and Thursday night with and overrunning snow set up as the Arctic air is beginning to push in... then about a 12-18 break before the larger storm pushes in.
 
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