Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[NickyBGuarantee]

I mean ICON is an iffy model but it still has a heft high pressure feeding in killer low level arctic air

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Well this isn’t ideal View attachment 70127

Nice try Icon...... we aren't buying it.

 

[Stormlover]

Welp.... I knew it was too good to be tru

WTF? Never fails. We get the best setup we've had in ages and this crap comes out. Time to bring out the good ole ignore feature.

 

[Ethan80963]

I don't think we have anything to worry about atm. It was just one model run of one of the worst models.

 

[Storm5]

WTF? Never fails. We get the best setup we've had in ages and this crap comes out. Time to bring out the good ole ignore feature.

Ages ? Easy


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[Jessy89]

If the gfs does the same thing. Then
I’ll worry


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[Stormlover]

Went back and looked at the previous 3 ICON runs..they sucked too, so what's the big deal? It was already an outlier. Get a grip folks. Even the best models will flip around this far out, but the pattern, the consensus, the ensembles too, it's all good. Enjoy the ride!

 

[mydoortotheworld]

1) It’s the ICON
2) It’s one model run
3) This will change

Don’t Panic™

 

[Myfrotho704_]

1) It’s the ICON
2) It’s one model run
3) This will change

Don’t Panic™

Wouldn’t shock me if we saw more runs like that, typical with pacific blocking you can get a run like that, not really worried at all

 

[Brick Tamland]

That’s the system before the real cold moves in, relax brick

Well, hope there is a system after the cold comes in and it's not just bitter cold and dry as usual when it gets that cold here.

 

[LickWx]

Well, hope there is a system after the cold comes in and it's not just bitter cold and dry as usual when it gets that cold here.

Throughout the years what I have observed is the snow happens as the cold exits or right before it enters . Notice when our threats are ? Right as the cold is leaving and ahead of any other cold shot .Not when the dang vortex is all the way on top of us lol. No surprise it’s not showing snow when the high pressure is at it’s most and temps and the lowest .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn this is not a bad look at all,

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Imo the only reason I don’t like the first system, is because it’s still working with marginal air, normally we don’t get storms before a pattern changes anyways

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So close to a whopper phase here

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

So that's two runs in a row now that the GFS has backed off on the extreme cold push deep into the south.

 

[$alt]

Hm. Something tells me we are far off from figuring any of this out:

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yikes. Much warmer run. Icon may be onto something.

 

[Jessy89]

It’s not really surprising that the gfs is backing off the extreme cold. But it’s still going to be cold the goal here is snow more so then extreme dry cold


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[Myfrotho704_]

So that's two runs in a row now that the GFS has backed off on the extreme cold push deep into the south.

Yeah the trend to a Aleutian ridge the last runs has been Suspect, don’t want that

 

[J.C.]

Just a bit different from the 18z for Monday afternoon lol.