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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

FallsLake said:
Fun talk from RAH:
........This pattern across NOAM is relatively well agreed upon
in the deterministic and ensemble model guidance, with primary
differences and forecast uncertainty related to individual shortwave
features and the associated geometry of the longwave pattern over
the cntl and ern US through early next week. While those shortwave
details will prove critical in determining lower predictability
precipitation chances and types as the features aloft interact with
an initial frontal zone forecast to settle across and offshore the
srn middle Atlantic Fri-weekend, the well agreed upon longwave
pattern is one that should deliver a significant Arctic outbreak to
much of the cntl-ern US through early next week. Regardless of
frontal wave development with the aforementioned lead frontal zone,
the passage of the Arctic front, and potential for following
dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values, may result in
snow showers/squalls in cntl NC later this weekend.
Click to expand...
Suprised there mentioning snow squalls but it makes sense since were getting a airmass cold enough/piece of energy to rotate over/steep LRs under the ULT
 
WeatherNC said:
My two cents, and many are smarter than me. AO is the primary driver in this outbreak, we have waited up until now for it to come onboard and it approaches 4 sigma with a vengeance over the first week of Feb. I question whether we reload or if a nearby cold source is transient given some indications of a NAO flip to +. Where we had a +PNA in Jan, it may not be as much help moving forward. We do finally have our cross polar flow, SE benchmark as far I am concerned.
Click to expand...

The NAO isn't going positive anytime soon
 
Looking at the models this evening in depth since I got home from work and you can’t help but to have some excitement for multiple opportunities. I know everyone is focusing on the middle of next week, but I wouldn’t sleep on the potential for Sunday yet... I don’t just mean the mountains or I-40 north. That’s a really impressive cold push coming southeast and given the fact that overrunning events are often under modeled, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Sunday could have accumulating snow across the western 2/3 of NC, northern SC and GA and East Tennessee. It would probably be more of widespread 1-3” or 2-4” type deal, but with the cold air that’s pushing in, it would be a very high impact event.
 
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