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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Sunday /Monday
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Showmeyourtds said:
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Can someone help me decode this sounding? The frame before had 28/37 and showed snow. Am I not seeing the warm layer at the surface correctly (This is for just East of downtown Atlanta in case anyone was too lazy to google the coordinates)
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You can always lose the ice nucleation zone


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Shawn said:
This front end warm makes perfect sense for deep southern snows. Many times I've heard stories of warm to snow within a week from older people.
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Yeah, it’s pretty common to see, even during some of our cold snows. It’s not ideal since it messes up our ground temps, but it is a common occurrence for sure. I’ve definitely seen it warm well into the 50s or even 60s a day or two before a snowstorm on a number of occasions.
 
Looking past all this (take this with a grain of salt because models are already dog poop in the medium and short range but wanted to say something because it’s been consistent and I’m bored) This period looks interesting for some +PNA as the GEFS is hinting at a North Pacific jet extension as high pressure descends into Asia >>> Aleutian low >>> western ridge/+PNA maybe ?
Just mostly speculation tho 06A5554B-EC7F-4D8D-AC8D-9305094A8746.png78C40503-8468-41EF-9100-E96278F1CF72.gifC8D7E39B-6B7B-4BCD-929B-FE57691AE75F.gif764D9238-7634-4706-BF5B-DF27D9708FB4.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Your most classic Miller A storms are known for bringing snow up the entire eastern seaboard. Naturally, some will get the shaft but overall it has happened in the past and will happen again in the future. Will it be this storm? Impossible to say this far out.
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Feb 1899 pulled off the perfect track going from Texas to Maine, and dropping a butload of snow all along the way on the leading edge of a brutal arctic air mass
 
I am starting to feel really good about the chances of most of us getting a big winter storm starting next week. That GFS run was bonkers, but I think it has been doing a good job lately. It was the first one to pick up on the storm that we had Jan 28, and the Euro and NAM ended up following it. This next week is going to be fun seeing where this all goes.
 
There's a fair amount of banter in here, we really did ask nicely multiple times....I know exciting times ahead but if we are to be consistent in moderating this site there are a bunch of post that would need to be deleted, warnings handed out and we really don't want to do that. Can y'all help us please and put banter in banter?
 
metwannabe said:
There's a fair amount of banter in here, we really did ask nicely multiple times....I know exciting times ahead but if we are to be consistent in moderating this site there are a bunch of post that would need to be deleted, warnings handed out and we really don't want to do that. Can y'all help us please and put banter in banter?
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Yep. I was getting ready to huddle up with the other mods to see when to tighten things back up. Time to take the playful banter elsewhere. This is serious business in here!
 
Storm5 said:
Can’t punt something inside day 5 for something post day 8


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Dern right. Several of the members have a stripe of 6-8” across AL. I’ll definitely go with a guarantee half of that over what may happen in ten days.

I’m not poo pooing that second threat by any imagination, but the difference in time frame might as well be 100 years.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
This reminds me A LOT of the December 2017 storm for NGA. Modest signal in the short range turned into something really substantial
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GFS v16 has this event hitting our parts on Saturday evening...it's really fast with this system coming in. 850mb and 925mb are below freezing. Hmmm...I'm really curious about tonight's runs for this event.
 
I would like to see NAM pick up Sundays system before opening a thread. Because the NAM should do well with that event


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