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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

I hate to be a debbie downer here but i can already see why most of NC will not get much if any snow. There is a rule that works really well. IF DC, BWI, NYC get snow from a low then it will be too warm to the south. GFS is already showing mixing for eastern NC. If the low heads up the coast then expect more and more rain to show up. The low needs to go ene from Hatteras, not nne or north. Look in future model runs to DC. The more they get the less we get and if the models end up showing DC with a foot+ then its rain for NC. I dont know alot but that 1039 high over OK is way too far south to do us good. It will just squirt the low more north and west.. Normally i am optimistic, but not with this look.

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Webberweather53 said:
I'd love to see Feb 1973 v2.0 in today's warmer/wetter world. More vapor to be fluxed around amps the wave, increases the theoretical snow ceiling, and shift the axis slightly further NW ?
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I am telling ya.......I am not saying we have a repeat of FEB 73, but to me the pattern favors a deep south almost board-wide hit!!
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, as you said earlier most major snow events in the southeast are going to have major ice involved with it as well. Honestly I didn’t so much mind the sleet that I got during the February 2014 storm... it helped keep that on the ground for days even though temperatures warmed up into the 50s just a couple days after. Also as good as February 2004 was for me, it even ended with a period of sleet at the end.
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Yeah it’s almost inevitable that we are gonna have sleet at some point in every major storm that comes along. I’ve come to accept it and personally don’t mind it too much as long as it comes in moderation. Sleet honestly isn’t as bad as many make it out to be, sleet leads to crunchier snow when you walk thru it and knocks a lot of any pre existing wet snow off trees and power lines, limiting the potential for power outages
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Temps during this storm are absolutely unreal in central NC. 22 degrees during heaviest precip and falling down to 17 during light snow as system begins to leave.
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This is like the once or twice in a lifetime dream storm.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I hate to be a debbie downer here but i can already see why most of NC will not get much if any snow. There is a rule that works really well. IF DC, BWI, NYC get snow from a low then it will be too warm to the south. GFS is already showing mixing for eastern NC. If the low heads up the coast then expect more and more rain to show up. The low needs to go ene from Hatteras, not nne or north.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
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Ughhhh maybe for Wilmington but the other 2/3 of the state would be fine even with the NW trend
 
You guys know that KATL, during the blizzard of 1993 had only 4 paltry inches, where I lived at the time in Dunwoody, we had 17 inches and 5 foot drifts. The readings at KATL are always not ever really representative of the entire Metro. If this comes to fruition then the KATL curse will be broken....HMMM
 
lexxnchloe said:
Not really. 10 days for that mix and rain to spread. the more the north gets the less we do. Lets see what future maps show.
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Your most classic Miller A storms are known for bringing snow up the entire eastern seaboard. Naturally, some will get the shaft but overall it has happened in the past and will happen again in the future. Will it be this storm? Impossible to say this far out.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
You guys know that KATL, during the blizzard of 1993 had only 4 paltry inches, where I lived at the time in Dunwoody, we had 17 inches and 5 foot drifts. The readings at KATL are always not ever really representative of the entire Metro. If this comes to fruition then the KATL curse will be broken....HMMM
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I think you may have made an error in measuring due to the snow drifts. Looks like 4-10" for Dunwoody. I was in Carrollton closer to the heavier snow and we only had 10".20210203_181216.jpg
 
Can’t sleep on this, this has really came to life on the models out of nowhere given a stronger medium range ridge, if we trend to more of that then it gets iffy, but this is just interesting for now 382B3969-49C4-4539-942E-2DDCB6A1DFF6.png66D94348-FB51-4A16-9777-1893B46C1AE2.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Your most classic Miller A storms are known for bringing snow up the entire eastern seaboard. Naturally, some will get the shaft but overall it has happened in the past and will happen again in the future. Will it be this storm? Impossible to say this far out.
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We will see but i would be optimistic if i lived in DC to BOS
 
iGRXY said:
Ughhhh maybe for Wilmington but the other 2/3 of the state would be fine even with the NW trend
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Yeah I was about to say, at the point that the low is off Cape Hatteras, winds are out of the north or northeast at all levels and temperatures are crashing, so any mixing that occurs would be changing back to snow as the storm exits.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Given the time frame, best fantasy run in 10 years. And it’s not even close. You can’t draw it up any better. I dare you to even try.View attachment 70789
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You’re my inspiration for my latest Twitter post! If you have Twitter I’ll tag you. It’s like $GME for weather lovers Lol. Thanks!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Chazwin said:
Yeah I was about to say, at the point that the low is off Cape Hatteras, winds are out of the north or northeast at all levels and temperatures are crashing, so any mixing that occurs would be changing back to snow as the storm exits.
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For now, but any more NW and that changes.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I think you may have made an error in measuring due to the snow drifts. Looks like 4-10" for Dunwoody. I was in Carrollton closer to the heavier snow and we only had 10".View attachment 70794
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I was like 10 years old in Polk Co. GA for the blizzard of 93 with about 13 inches and backyard that sloped downhill, you could start walking from the back porch and vanish by time you got to bottom of hill. Then we had the 12 inch snow here in Paulding County in Dec. 2017 if I somehow score another foot snowjob next week I think I will be content for the rest of my life....probably not
 
lexxnchloe said:
Well, I would have the low moving ene south of NC and not giving any snow north of richmond. that would be infinitely better.
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I think you’re speaking more for se NC instead specifically. There have been countless times over the years that storms have brought heavy snow to the Carolinas and then continued up the eastern seaboard... February 2014, March 2009, January 2000 just for starters
 
HugeSnowStick said:
You guys know that KATL, during the blizzard of 1993 had only 4 paltry inches, where I lived at the time in Dunwoody, we had 17 inches and 5 foot drifts. The readings at KATL are always not ever really representative of the entire Metro. If this comes to fruition then the KATL curse will be broken....HMMM
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Honestly, I live in South Fulton, literally 10 minutes away from the airport. I was 9 at the time, and I know measured more then 4.2 inches recording during the Blizzard of 1993. I am totally agree with statement.
 
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