There's a legit chance some parts of the southeast end up below 1981-2010 normals (and almost certainly 1991-2020 normals) in temperature if these models are correct, barring a torch in the latter half of February.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Exactly. I noticed the Euro went from supressed to a weak low tracking up over the SE with still a problem of ice for a lot of areas (and snow), and the push in the NE wasn't as strong, versus the previous run. Best look I've seen for around this area at least this season.
Shaggy
Member
I know it doesnt doesnt work this way but so far PGV is running 2 inches above normal precip in 2021. Would be nice to keep that trend going next week.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
February has been one of the few months lately that's been capable of going below normal at least intermittently, so I can believe it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We get the favorable trends to continue on NWP in the medium range, it will be the best looking pattern since Jan 2011. Late Jan-Feb 2014 was a good pattern but didn't have the -NAO
Thank you. Draining LOL
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Glenn Burns just talked about the snow potential on air. We’re doomed
GEFS tryna show another good look after the second one lol with a SE Canada vortex in place
This trend. Lol
I’ve got one
Avalanche
Member
Lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Is this for real ? 
My two cents, and many are smarter than me. AO is the primary driver in this outbreak, we have waited up until now for it to come onboard and it approaches 4 sigma with a vengeance over the first week of Feb. I question whether we reload or if a nearby cold source is transient given some indications of a NAO flip to +. Where we had a +PNA in Jan, it may not be as much help moving forward. We do finally have our cross polar flow, SE benchmark as far I am concerned.
LickWx
Member
The stratosphere looks to finally calm down, meaning the PV will strengthen, and eventually a + AO will propagate to the troposphere. Takes time and won't be till the second half of feb we feel that impact. The AO has not been positive a single day since Dec 1.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Brad P has spoken. Rain then cold and dry 
??? yep!!!
Fun talk from RAH:
........This pattern across NOAM is relatively well agreed upon
in the deterministic and ensemble model guidance, with primary
differences and forecast uncertainty related to individual shortwave
features and the associated geometry of the longwave pattern over
the cntl and ern US through early next week. While those shortwave
details will prove critical in determining lower predictability
precipitation chances and types as the features aloft interact with
an initial frontal zone forecast to settle across and offshore the
srn middle Atlantic Fri-weekend, the well agreed upon longwave
pattern is one that should deliver a significant Arctic outbreak to
much of the cntl-ern US through early next week. Regardless of
frontal wave development with the aforementioned lead frontal zone,
the passage of the Arctic front, and potential for following
dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values, may result in
snow showers/squalls in cntl NC later this weekend.
........This pattern across NOAM is relatively well agreed upon
in the deterministic and ensemble model guidance, with primary
differences and forecast uncertainty related to individual shortwave
features and the associated geometry of the longwave pattern over
the cntl and ern US through early next week. While those shortwave
details will prove critical in determining lower predictability
precipitation chances and types as the features aloft interact with
an initial frontal zone forecast to settle across and offshore the
srn middle Atlantic Fri-weekend, the well agreed upon longwave
pattern is one that should deliver a significant Arctic outbreak to
much of the cntl-ern US through early next week. Regardless of
frontal wave development with the aforementioned lead frontal zone,
the passage of the Arctic front, and potential for following
dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values, may result in
snow showers/squalls in cntl NC later this weekend.
ATLwxfan
Member
Ugh, yes we have ingredients but it’s going to be threading the needle. Glenn is usually more conservative.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I literally have no words anymore. He’s much better than this.