Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[deltadog03]

Well I will take what todays GFS is showing and euro last night run....

 

[SD]

Well I will take what todays GFS is showing and euro last night run....

Gfs is fairly close to the 0z Euro tbh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well I will take what todays GFS is showing and euro last night run....

They both flip the PNA positive/develop split flow, that’s what I’m banking on

 

[SD]

The gfs evolution really shows how you can get snow on the front of a cold shot then stay cold.

 

[Philstorm91]

I know we're talking about a potential storm/cold that's about 10 days away, but it's nice to see the CMC still showing the cold outbreak around the Valentine's Day weekend.

 

[Flotown]

Canadian has something around the same time ...But not nowhere near as epic as gfs DANGGGG

 

[LovingGulfLows]

?View attachment 70610View attachment 70611View attachment 70612

According to this run, 850mb at my location is literally at freezing and precip is only about 60-80 miles south. Hmmmm....

 

[NCSNOW]

Well dang hadn't really noticed how close the system Sunday is....

View attachment 70595

Sunday is real close. Has been , but nothing has meshed perfect on the runs. Probably want, but its to close not to dig into every cycle. It was a big hit last weekend,went MA, now is back the past couple of days as just wide right by a hair.

 

[RVD]

The good thing for us the coastal takes over and we go north northwest at the sfc didn't look at the soundings at that point

Maybe, but by the next frame/6 hrs precip has moved out and we've actually warmed a lot aloft to a really marginal warm nose vs. the colder look aloft at hour 90. You can see here how the profile is already isothermal from 850-950 mb, so I doubt without some heavy precip we'd be able to push that all the way to the surface.

Surface winds are also really weak here, because the low pressure is so far offshore and its circulation is really small. Without that we're not going to get the sort of crashing changeover that we saw with the last system. Related to that, the 850mb circ. is also compact/open with winds at that height never really getting a northerly component, hence why we warm up so much. The best way to fix these problems is to hope for a slight NW trend/stronger low, that maybe doesn't have such a compact circulation. Not really sure what determines the size of the circulation though.

 

[ATLwxfan]

As horny as that makes me it’s 10 days out ( like always ) no chance


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Go worry about the spring garden.


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[SouthSideYankee]

If that low would adjust a tad Northwest we could put Memphis in play. Appears most totals stay to the south this run.

If anything they will trend N/NW

 

[Broken024]

CMC similiar, but much more ice

 

[Brick Tamland]

Went from 20 to 70 on the GFS in the matter of 2 days View attachment 70577

After showing a good storm around the 11th before.

 

[Stormlover]

Canadian says below zero

Canadian has something around the same time ...But not nowhere near as epic as gfs DANGGGG

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

-------- if that GFS storm comes to fruition that would make up for all the heart break over the recent years .. glad to see something fun in the medium range .. but let’s keep watching Sunday ... it’s way more marginal than I thought ... literally one small tweak and it’s a paste bomb

 

[Flotown]

Canadian says below zero View attachment 70625

well not as epic with snow anyway..lol

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

GEFS?

 

[Tarheel1]

The gfs evolution really shows how you can get snow on the front of a cold shot then stay cold.

Jan 88

 

[Ollie Williams]

GEFS?

Actually overall quite similar to the operational.

 

[Tarheel1]

GEFS?

Who’s got the Icon ensembles?