Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[RVD]

Probably would've been a hard tightrope to walk with out losing some cold air, but a little bit stronger/more closed off and this would've popped a (stronger) coastal low on the way out... note the 850 mb circulation doesn't even hit the Atlantic until around hour 264. Could've easily added 12-24 hours and 6+" for central and eastern NC.
View attachment 70608

Looks like I don't have to wonder anymore about what the snow maps for this scenario would've looked like.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

The real winner looks like Dubuque. 3 feet. Congrats Tarheel.

 

[stephend122080]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

Holy smokes

Sent from my SM-A115U1 using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

The really big winter storms south of the I-40 corridor are more often than not overrunning events w/ lift mostly driven by isentropic upglide and warm advection.

The GFS showcases this nicely here

Notice the wind barbs are almost perpendicular to the isentropes!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol some good members and a insane one

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

Totally just popped a massive weenie warning....

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

Must..look...away. Don’t...look...directly...at it...

 

[Parker]

Lol some good members and a insane one View attachment 70776View attachment 70777

BE STILL MY HEART! Holycrap

 

[MSnowAtl]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

I think this is the "The One"!

 

[Webberweather53]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

Lol we're probably sleeting at some point w/ soundings like these on the GFS knowing how it sucks trying to resolve warm noses

Sleet at 21F...


Smh

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Setting up for snow on top of snow?

 

[Chazwin]

Lol some good members and a insane one View attachment 70776View attachment 70777

Still a really good storm signal for that timeframe

 

[EastAtlwx]

This one even managed to pull the weenie out of me! Lol, it’s been a tough stretch south of I-85.. this one may be “the one” for the Deep South.. buckle up!

 

[iGRXY]

The Valentine’s weekend storm is probably going to be the best storm that we could keep on the models for multiple runs over multiple days. Mostly due to the amount of colder air to our north that any storm system that forms will deliver as long as it doesn’t get shredded to pieces. But still wouldn’t surprise me if this one goes to hell in the day 6-8 range to come back as that’s our luck. But hopefully this will be one of the very few storms that stays on the models until it’s go time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Another Fantasy

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Another Fantasy View attachment 70785

Stop! It’s too sensitive!!!

 

[Chazwin]

Lol we're probably sleeting at some point w/ soundings like these on the GFS knowing how it sucks trying to resolve warm noses

Sleet at 21F...


Smh
View attachment 70782

Yeah, as you said earlier most major snow events in the southeast are going to have major ice involved with it as well. Honestly I didn’t so much mind the sleet that I got during the February 2014 storm... it helped keep that on the ground for days even though temperatures warmed up into the 50s just a couple days after. Also as good as February 2004 was for me, it even ended with a period of sleet at the end.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Huge huge nut View attachment 70774

I would say I don’t like being in the jackpot this far out .. but hell move this thing north south east or west ??‍ Who cares ?!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Temps during this storm are absolutely unreal in central NC. 22 degrees during heaviest precip and falling down to 17 during light snow as system begins to leave.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Can someone help me decode this sounding? The frame before had 28/37 and showed snow. Am I not seeing the warm layer at the surface correctly (This is for just East of downtown Atlanta in case anyone was too lazy to google the coordinates)