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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I still say with the southward trend (as much blocking that is overtop should push the low even further south) the upstate is likely going to start getting into play on model runs soon. I only see this being able to trend further south oddly enough.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Plenty of time to go either way
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Yep by then we will know if these trends we are currently seeing on the models are a mirage or not. Even still we literally have to do everything perfectly in this setup and send up a hope/prayer to get legit accumulating snow out of this. It’s very frustrating imo because if we had even semi legit arctic air mass in the prior period or some snow to our north we’d be sitting damn good rn and be looking at a really big event with a look like this. We are lucky this is occurring near our peak climo temp wise because it would have basically no chance otherwise.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep by then we will know if these trends we are currently seeing on the models are a mirage or not. Even still we literally have to do everything perfectly in this setup and send up a hope/prayer to get legit accumulating snow out of this. It’s very frustrating imo because if we had even semi legit arctic air mass in the prior period or some snow to our north we’d be sitting damn good rn and be looking at a really big event with a look like this. We are lucky this is occurring near our peak climo temp wise because it would have basically no chance otherwise.
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Agreed. If you're not in the mountains/foothills or KINT and northwest everything must go perfectly from a ptype/thermals perspective. Of course, if things go too perfectly -- ie the upper wave tracks much further south -- for the RDU area, the aforementioned areas could end up drier per the past 3 GFS runs.

gfs_apcpn_seus_fh138_trend.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Oops, posted the wrong thing, here’s the v16 ! View attachment 62179
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7aa72b0010fa20046550d99fdbc7f0ec.gif
 
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