Individual precip members ??? I bet we got ice ice baby to talk about
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Clem282340
Member
Anyone have the gefs
Look up college of dupage on google and click what pops up. Then go to models and you have all of those models to view from .. when u select the GEFS models click the area you want to look at and on the left hand side there are the plethora of weather details you can look at over there .. what you want is in the “precipitation products” tab and then click “ensemble prec. Type”
Don't look. Stick with the GFS operational at 348. It's much more fun.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah it was warmer and all three major ensembles still look cold for the East/Southeast during that time period. Maybe it won’t get that cold...Wait and see game.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Why are they so bitter? Are they really being attacked? Kinda snowflaky if you ask me. And using an op model run to boot! Now that’s fascinating.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
They blocked me so I can’t see the salt anymore
They really focus on every run thats warm, and pay less attention to colder runs. I guess you really can't blame them a whole lost considering the past few years. If you had to bet your life on what will verify in the long range with warm or cold, you would have to go warm. At least this year hasn't been a run away torch, far from really.
Lol this is basically early January but a -WPO and a trough rather in the PNW this time appearing in the LR , it’s a canonical La Niña look but the -NAO changes everything 
and a torch is exactly what they predicted for January which is far from what has happened
They do focus on warmth. But can like you said can you blame them? I think every 11-15 day forecast has warmed inside day 10. It's Jan 16th and we're still more than 10 days from cold. This time may be different I don't know. After getting fooled by the models last week I won't look past 10 days anymore whether it shows cold or warmth.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, while it hasn't been super cold this winter, it hasn't been warm either and although I really should adjust myself to be looking closer, I don't see any reason to think that January is going to end differently.
Would guess that we'll see a couple weeks like this in February too...then probably flip (although this is a gut feeling lol).
Would guess that we'll see a couple weeks like this in February too...then probably flip (although this is a gut feeling lol).
iGRXY
Member
It hasn’t been below freezing cold but we have been consistently in the low 40’s and upper 30’s for highs here east of the apps and that is still much colder than average and damn near ice age cold compared to what we have been used to these last couple of years. Also BAMWX is almost always wrong. They flip flop more than the sandals and they predicted a warm January that hasn’t even come close to verifying.
iGRXY
Member
Posting an OP run. Not a trend but one OP run is something I don’t think I’ve ever seen a credible meteorologist or weather forum do to try and use as fact to get their opinion across regardless of whether it shows cold and snow or warm. Especially not when models have been changing from run to run even in the medium range. This strictly my opinion but they aren’t credible at all and people have been telling them that and they don’t like it.
I'll just leave this here. Just because the south has been slightly below average doesn't mean the winter so far for the conus isn't a torch and the people forecasting warmth failed. Most of those forecasters are up north.
yankees...pshaw
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Can't get snow but can get a thunderstorm at 38 degrees.
Lol gefs/gfs try to show warming over Asia, super LR so just fun to look at 
Got rid of that random NS energy north of the lakes and get a ridge up through there and you have legit classical CAD. 
SWVAwxfan
Member
We have been getting convective snow showers off and on all day here in the NRV. Some very impressive looking clouds. One looked like it had an anvil.
Love ice or anything wintry
This look promising?
We need more riding north of Alaska, but by no means bad.
Don’t sleep on the flat ass having ass system, 18z EPS Looked better at H5 and was colder (cold press moving south) will this get better or worsen at 00z ? 
Not a bad look at all
Clem282340
Member
Is this a ice storm look here
Ehh not really, unless we get some late cad out of nowhere
Where is the surface freezing line? Really looks like a pattern where you get a better push of LL cold south of the 850 0 line. Something like this
I haven't looked to see if this system was really similar synoptically just giving a ptype stratification example
Clem282340
Member
No idea
Worse than I expected tbh
Keep in mind we’re also at a time range in which the Euro is not going to pick up on any CAD that may be there.
I just looked I thought we might get a better cold shot with the waves through the NE but you are right the better cold is really lurking behind this system. A week or so out I'm sure it'll change but I don't think we can get this one that much colder
GaSnowhound
Member
Yeah.....this would likely take the “great blizzard of 93” and the big central ga slammer of ‘73 to task. Snow jam ‘82 would be mere child’s play in comparison. All that said.....this area (s and e metro) are so over due for a whopper. We’ve watched our north, west and sw metro score for last several years. No serious 6”+ here since abt ‘09 if I recall. It’s time!!!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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