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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Not often do we see the euro trending in our favor as we get within 5-6 days. Haven’t seen many fantasy storms this year either inside 144hrs or so. I’m really liking what we are seeing. Webb is right though, you always fear the warm nose even if every single ensemble shows 12” of snow 24 hrs before onset ( like the RDU January sleet storm that shall not be named).
 
Montanasnow30 said:
I’ll never forget that one I still hate that system to this day
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It was a heartbreaker for many in the Carolinas as well. The last NWS forecast update before the storm arrived had me getting 10-14 inches. It started as heavy snow for about 45 minutes and got about 1/2 an inch. Then the warm nose took over and we had 8 hours of 33 degree heavy rain
 
Arcc said:
That is the area that was hit hardest. I had 9-10” here in Coosa county in 2017.
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9 to 10 inches is definitely awesome I was staying in Tuscaloosa county at the time and we was lucky to get half an inch from that 2017 event
 
KyloG said:
The control is what I am thinking. I think a bigger event but focused NW NC into central VA.

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If we continue to get more confluence aloft (which is aiding in colder 850s) then this look may be correct accounting the warm nose, however if we get any little south tick with the upper level system while keeping solid confluence or even improving it, it may get even slightly further south
 
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