• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

If HM is correct, this unfavorable Pacific has alot to do with the SSW event. Somewhere or somehow tied into it. I'm really not sure if he is correct, but he did mention it. I know yall will say I'm a debbie downer, but winter is over for us other than a few cool days moving forward. That's my opinion. SSW events are definitely overrated.
 
Mr. Golf said:
If HM is correct, this unfavorable Pacific has alot to do with the SSW event. Somewhere or somehow tied into it. I'm really not sure if he is correct, but he did mention it. I know yall will say I'm a debbie downer, but winter is over for us other than a few cool days moving forward. That's my opinion. SSW events are definitely overrated.
Click to expand...
HM was talking about a favorable pattern for the east not too long ago. IMO, it's fun to attempt LR forecasting and muse about how all of these complexities of the atmosphere will come together to do this or that and type all kinds of big words and industry jargon, but the fact is, we really don't have much of an idea beyond what analogs can tell us. And even that methodology is open to quite a bit of interpretation and often yields faulty conclusions.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Mega fail. We lost Alaska. I know it was a matter of time.View attachment 66262
Click to expand...
As much i Hate these trends, it’s not lost yet, still plenty of time, (for example models trending away from the -NAO only to bring it back a few days ago)still plenty of time, but very discouraging trends
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
As much i Hate these trends, it’s not lost yet, still plenty of time, (for example models trending away from the -NAO only to bring it back a few days ago)still plenty of time, but very discouraging trends
Click to expand...

I've spent many winters awaiting on the promised pattern change that never arrives.
 
Not sure who on here gets Larry Cosgrove's weekly email but here is his viewpoint of the models since
Labor Day....

"But realize: the model guidance has been useless since Labor Day. The impressive southern branch and flow splitting has created a thermal projection that looks like a typical El Nino, instead of what La Nina climatology (which the equations are using heavily) would suggest. And with the steady -ENSO signal projected to weaken, some of the blocking elements shown on the February 500MB comparison chart will come into play. "

Really makes the forecaster's life difficult and impossible when a model flips from one solution to another in 12 hours
 
LOL! In 24 hrs...We went from this to this...
c061b65e1f70db28f575bc05fc91afea.jpg

f7fcbe7c81b52216f8b64b205bff3017.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Makes me miss the +PNA/-NAO pattern, that pattern provided whether people liked it or not, I know the events were marginal but it did something at least
Click to expand...
I was just about to come in here and say that ... screw the -EPO and -WPO or whatever people were rooting for ... they have never been good for us recently and those marginal events were fine we weee so close we were bound to hit if it kept going into our best climo snow period .. smh
 
Honestly wouldn’t be too discouraged by bad model runs when the models are flipping like crazy right now ... until we see multiple runs that look similar THATS when we kick the chair out from under us... also the GEFS still had a few members that liked that Jan 23 system could still be sneaky and give some snow to us as well as a lot more members keying in on a big CAD event .. so the possibilities are definitely still on the table we’re just not seeing them right now ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top