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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
The GEFS honestly isn’t that bad, some members with snow and or ice for that CAD system toward D8, and it’s colder at the sfc vs last run between D 8-10, it’s backed off on the CP flow/-EPO so I’m assuming this is more marginal cold with a stronger -NAO in placeView attachment 66278View attachment 66279
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I’ll take marginal in late January early February .. means more paste bombs right?!
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Honestly wouldn’t be too discouraged by bad model runs when the models are flipping like crazy right now ... until we see multiple runs that look similar THATS when we kick the chair out from under us... also the GEFS still had a few members that liked that Jan 23 system could still be sneaky and give some snow to us as well as a lot more members keying in on a big CAD event .. so the possibilities are definitely still on the table we’re just not seeing them right now ?
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I agree. I’m glad I follow weather models as a hobby and don’t make a career out of it because right now, I’m sure long range forecasters are pulling their hair out trying to figure things out. I’ve been following models like this for 15 years and I’ve never seen the volatility and flip flopping on them the we way we’re seeing this year. The one constant continues to be a -NAO and a very low amp MJO that is in the COD. I like those two factors to at least say we should stay seasonal and going into late January climo, I’ll take my chances with that to sneak in a winter storm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Time stamps or it didn’t happen
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All I hope for with this sort of look is to retrograde to something like what we had in early jan with a -NAO /+EPO/+PNA or western ridge, even if It wasn’t much I scored off that pattern, would think those lower heights around the PNW/AK would pump in a -NAO like how that worked in early January, but I could be wrong
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All I hope for with this sort of look is to retrograde to something like what we had in early jan with a -NAO /+EPO/+PNA or western ridge, even if It wasn’t much I scored off that pattern, would think those lower heights around the PNW/AK would pump in a -NAO like how that worked in early January, but I could be wrong
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I’m all for it. Hate to see those lower heights up around Alaska dumping vertical down the west coast. That was the point of no return, last year at least. Maybe the GFS was smoking crack this afternoon and the Euro will come in completely different at the end of the run. I just hate to throw away prime climo..like we typically do.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Time stamps or it didn’t happen
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It’s from today’s GFS 12z! The blizzard is Feb 2, but there is a big snowstorm here next Sat/Sun, that’s total snowfall through Feb 2!????
 
Still think this ssw may be playing havoc with modeling, now if these starts a trend that's one thing but hopefully it reverts back to what it was showing. I know that many have said ssw often leads into wild swings in modeling until things get close. Just offering a silver lining when we desperately need one after all this cold and storm January tease so far. Maybe things will change quickly and we start seeing the great trends that light up winter boards all across the southeast and mid south.
 
Last year at least where I live. It was really February before we had a decent accumulating snow. It came on a Sunday got 2.5 inches out of it.


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Good news is that the cold air we need for a board wide Winter storm arrives in two weeks. So yeh, no worries..

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