Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[CaryWx]

What happens with that system? Does is just dampen out on Saturday? Those 850s are diving.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What happens with that system? Does is just dampen out on Saturday? Those 850s are diving.

Dunno, we should find out tonight, the 18z EPS/control only go out to hour 144

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Strongest -NAO run yet on the GFS, that’s a super block

 

[Myfrotho704_]

if that N/S energy don’t screw things up, Might get a miller B run here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eh we need to make adjustments to that GL ridge, get it stronger, and get rid of any N/S energy around it

 

[SD]

Eh View attachment 66188we need to make adjustments to that GL ridge, get it stronger, and get rid of any N/S energy around it View attachment 66189

Meh it'll be easy to get the wave north of minnesota to move though and flatten the ridge. A lot of time to change this look

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[ATLwxfan]

Strongest -NAO run yet on the GFS, that’s a super block View attachment 66185

And yet we are AN much of the run. Wild.


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[Clem282340]

View attachment 66195

Do you think we might could sneak something out of this

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Do you think we might could sneak something out of this

I think mid/southern VA/northern NC could

 

[ATLwxfan]

Awfully warm run. 18z and 00z GFS haven’t gone well. Verbatim after this weekend ATL is 50’s for highs the next two weeks. No bueno. I’ll get to play a lot of tennis though.


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[Myfrotho704_]

-EPO backing off... we’ve seen that a lot the last few years, I’m not panicking tho, lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS sorta hinting at the first system

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS sorta hinting at the first system View attachment 66199View attachment 66200

Where’s the ? react when you need it? Paging MNGR now @SD

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d watch that second system.... GEFS keeps trending better for cold air damming, and not for snow, but ice

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

CMC for second system

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC for second system

CMCs super CADs are sure fun to look at, lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Loosing the -EPO hurts ? hopefully this is just like what happened a few days ago with the -NAO and it comes back

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man imagine if we lose the -NAO here, that’s you classic February nina look there, if we lose the -NAO with that look, uh oh

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

ECMWF much weaker with the low off of the California coast in 72 hours ... should make a difference somewhere I would assume..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This could be interesting, N/S press is stronger, Also lower heights form the Atlantic compared to last run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s a shame it gets sheared out bc the ridge ahead of it, that’s a good H5 pattern, but guess what ? gotta get lucky in the SE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gn folks ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gn folks ?View attachment 66217View attachment 66218

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This feels familiar

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This feels familiar View attachment 66220

Get these operationals out of my face .. I DO not want to see them anymore ... ensembles please help us tonight

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

?? View attachment 66221

I don’t see the big problem here other than nothing really even happened

 

[Ethan80963]

The GFS wasn’t far for the first system temps still close but not quite there. But for the second system the GFS went kinda crazy.

 

[KyloG]

Yeah, this isn't going the way we want...I had high hopes for last week of Jan. Maybe Feb will be great.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS looks good

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah, this isn't going the way we want...I had high hopes for last week of Jan. Maybe Feb will be great.
View attachment 66223

If we lost it quickly we can gain it back easily .. don’t start pulling hair out yet. ?

 

[Mitch West]

If we lost it quickly we can gain it back easily .. don’t start pulling hair out yet. ?

Yeh exactly, seems as if the only true trend we can ever get around here is us trending back and forth. By this evening or tomorrow, it’ll look great again. Eventually, we will get something in the short range and have a snowstorm on March 25th or something. ?

 

[Flo]

We are taking my daughter and 3 of her friends to Hendersonville to stay in a cabin the 29th and 30th. It’s her birthday so hopefully we see a little snow. I like our chances.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t see the big problem here other than nothing really even happened

Lol lower heights around AK/less -EPO basically means your loosing a big chunk of the arctic air, could go back the other way but lower heights around AK is clearly something we don’t want

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Posted this in the whamby thread but this H5 look gives me jan 1979 vibes but more ridging around AK (pretty solid ice event in CAD regions)

 

[ajr]

More than two weeks into January and the thread title is unfortunately proving accurate for most of us — don’t really see anything that’s going to change the pattern and enable snow outside of the mountains.

 

[Jessy89]

Jan 24th-30th is the time to watch but not getting hopes up


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[SD]

Posted this in the whamby thread but this H5 look gives me jan 1979 vibes but more ridging around AK (pretty solid ice event in CAD regions) View attachment 66225View attachment 66226

Not a bad setup, verbatim it's probably onset ice for a good part of the wedge regions. If we can get it to speed up and shear out might get a more snowy result.

I see the euro and eps really crapped out the D5/6 system

 

[KyloG]

I'm a glutton for punishment but the 27-30 period looks like it could have potential. And now watch the 12z run totally move away from this.