Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z only goes out to hour 120. Didn’t even really get into the timeframe of the event.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Actually, it looks much better with the low much further south.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I was just looking at the last frame compared to the same time of the 12z run. It's about 5-6 degrees warmer in most places
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That’s a track that puts areas further south in play there, wow
iGRXY
Member
I have a theory that’s I’ve been pondering on for a while due to climate change. Where all of the interstate corridors moved north. Used to be I40 would have almost sure fire winter weather week in and week out. The I85 corridor from the Piedmont through the upstate through Georgia would usually get 2-4 winter storms that usually had at least one big dog. And the I20 corridor would get 1-2 storm potentials a year. Now it seems like the I40 corridor is the new I85 and I85 is the new I20 and I20 might just see a winter storm every 5 or so years. If we can’t score with the amount of positives on our side during peak climo, this is just going to further push my idea that our traditional winter weather transition zones are moving further north.
iGRXY
Member
That look would have the upstate and Piedmont in the perfect position for accumulating snow
That’s because precip isnt falling yet, this system is driven off dynamical cooling, this run in fact would have maybe been good given the timing it was moving in
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I'm just confused because it was much warmer at H120 18z Friday than than the 12z run
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That looked like an entirely new evolution compared to recent runs where it dumped all the energy into that weak southern wave. Not sure that is going to happen but interesting nonetheless.
Snowy/mixy fropa tomorrow?? On all 3 NAMs, these were the best depicted! Thought it was neat
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't really like the fact that we're also having to rely on dynamical cooling to push us down to freezing in light of how much warm advection there's gonna be. It would be one thing if we actually had the cold air in place prior to precip arrival.
Can you elaborate?
Jon
Member
Sheesh...I mean someone is going to get under a sub 1000mb low while heights crash, whether that’s NE NC or DCA we don’t know yet, but it’s worth watching. We’re very much in the game, RDU north and NE. Can’t really discount anything at this juncture. But I admittedly live for setups like this that tend to over perform.
Atlantic influence is getting a little bit stronger and ULL so far is a touch south 
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The GFS is coming in a bit colder and further south FWIW.
Probably about to get a boom run 
The GFS is extremely impressive with the upcoming warming percentilewise, especially at 70-100 mb. This shows 90N to 60N average temps reaching near record highs of 218 K for mid Jan at the 100 mb level of the atmosphere near midmonth vs normals near 210 K (there is a lag for the peak to hit at 100 mb vs higher up, where it is about to peak already at say, 2mb). Warming at that level is almost never near the magnitude that occurs much higher up. The 218 K would be near the normal for early April!
