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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Tarheel1 said:
The more anomalous the pattern, the quicker it should breakdown? Kind of like a Cat 5 hurricane, hard to keep it going for a long time , with that intensity? ?
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The southeast ridge is quite honestly highly anomalous and the last decade it was basically our average pattern ? bout time we get away from that for a bit
 
With basically every teleconnection going into a positive direction, the SSW causing those positive trends to likely remain for the future, and a potential positive MJO phases, if we don’t get snow out of this, it just isn’t going to happen ever. A strong -AO, solid -NAO, a decent +PNA with more ridging over Alaska to allow for the cold over Siberia to have nowhere to go but the Eastern US, we have to score out of this look.
 
FallsLake said:
RAH acknowledges the possibility of a mix, but is not impressed with the chances:

Meanwhile, an upper low will deepen as it moves out of the Rockies
and into the southern Plains. There is fairly good agreement among
the major deterministic guidance with respect to moisture transport
into the area late Thursday into Friday, with rain gradually
overspreading the area early Friday morning. However, there are
differences with how quickly the upper low deepens offshore and
moves out of the area. GFS takes the low out of the area fairly
quickly with strong post-frontal drying from west to east Friday
night. 03.00Z ECMWF and various 03.00Z EC ENS members appear to be
signaling another upper trough moving in from the Great Lakes with a
reinforcing shot of cold air arriving coincident with the departure
of the low. This solution, if it pans out, could result in a brief
mix of rain and snow on the back end of the precip shield as it
moves out of the area early Saturday morning, but forecast
confidence in this specific solution is quite low at this lead time.
03.12Z deterministic ECMWF has arrived somewhat more in line with
the 03.12Z GFS/GEFS, noticeably absent in this latest run is the
Great Lakes trough and associated cold air. GFS/GEFS and its faster
evolution of the system naturally keeps precip in the form of liquid
vs snow. There isn`t an abundance of cold air upstream to be
imported into the area in the first place, that and the trajectory
of the aforementioned Great Lakes low would result in downslope flow
across the area which is far from favorable for a rain/snow mix. For
now I am keeping the forecast all liquid until a better model
consensus can be achieved. NBM is closely aligned with GFS timing
and temps and it was a reasonable starting point for this event.
Regardless, temperatures during the latter part of the week into the
weekend will be below normal given cloud cover and precip with highs
in the low/mid 40s, lows within a few degrees of freezing.
Conditions should dry out for the upcoming weekend as the low
departs the area.
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I mean this makes the most sense for our area right now. If you look at the Euro caa at 850 and 925 starts around 18z Friday at that point we just have to hope there is enough moisture around to squeeze out a couple hours of light snow. Now if we see another shift even 50 miles south you have to start thinking more seriously about the I40 to Va border being a little more in the game for a longer duration event
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The southeast ridge is quite honestly highly anomalous and the last decade it was basically our average pattern ? bout time we get away from that for a bit
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It’s the new norm! Anomalous would be you catching a bigger fish than me! ?
 
iGRXY said:
With basically every teleconnection going into a positive direction, the SSW causing those positive trends to likely remain for the future, and a potential positive MJO phases, if we don’t get snow out of this, it just isn’t going to happen ever. A strong -AO, solid -NAO, a decent +PNA with more ridging over Alaska to allow for the cold over Siberia to have nowhere to go but the Eastern US, we have to score out of this look.
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Yeah, if we don't get any snow with this then what used to give us snow just doesn't matter anymore and it's all just a crapshoot.
 
iGRXY said:
With basically every teleconnection going into a positive direction, the SSW causing those positive trends to likely remain for the future, and a potential positive MJO phases, if we don’t get snow out of this, it just isn’t going to happen ever. A strong -AO, solid -NAO, a decent +PNA with more ridging over Alaska to allow for the cold over Siberia to have nowhere to go but the Eastern US, we have to score out of this look.
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Yeah combine that with the fact we’re getting this look at peak climo. I totally agree, if we don’t score with that look we suck
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah combine that with the fact we’re getting this look at peak climo. I totally agree, if we don’t score with that look we suck
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We (I-20 crew) didn't score with the look we had in Feb 2015. Wasn't that a pretty good look ? My point is, no matter how good the look it is, it doesn't guarantee anything.
 
iGRXY said:
With basically every teleconnection going into a positive direction, the SSW causing those positive trends to likely remain for the future, and a potential positive MJO phases, if we don’t get snow out of this, it just isn’t going to happen ever. A strong -AO, solid -NAO, a decent +PNA with more ridging over Alaska to allow for the cold over Siberia to have nowhere to go but the Eastern US, we have to score out of this look.
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I go back to what was said earlier and I can’t find now who put it up. Later this week, we are now in line to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA at the same time. The previous 3 times that has happened there has a been a widespread winter storm for the southeast within a few days. Gotta like the chances there
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
We (I-20 crew) didn't score with the look we had in Feb 2015. Wasn't that a pretty good look ? My point is, no matter how good the look it is, it doesn't guarantee anything.
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This is better than Feb 2015, the best looking pattern in mid winter since 2010-11 & 2009-10 which did produce both times on the 20 corridor
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is better than Feb 2015, the best looking pattern in mid winter since 2010-11 & 2009-10 which did produce both times on the 20 corridor
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Most of NC did decently well in February 2015, we got to above climo snow after no measurable snow before February 15th. We had a major sleet storm on the 16th-17th, a surprise powder 1-2 inch event on the 24th, and about 3-5" of wet snow on the 25th-26th (and this one could have been even bigger). I also remember a brief convective snow event on the 18th that dropped a dusting with very heavy rates. I hadn't ever seen that many snow events in a short time.

I hope RDU doesn't go without measurable snow for the third January in a row
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep lol just trying to temper expectations atm because experience in these setups says any snow and especially accumulation east of the mtns would be a win. Don’t get enthralled with model snow or p type maps esp this far out
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A flake is a win for me.


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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that was one of the few exceptions and then again we also had a big sfc high in Dec 2018 to transport what little cold air there was to the south, no evidence of anything like that here. For every Dec 2018 you get a Jan 2017 or Feb 2015
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And it was cold rain on top of snow which is totally useless for kids to play in.


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KyloG said:
850 low is over GSP and tracks down the NC/SC state line...which points to a I-40N more NC/VA border potential. For RDU folks we need this over Augusta/CAE/MYR. Not impossible but we are pushing the limits of how far south this can get.

View attachment 62149
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In most cases the heaviest snow would fall about 50 miles north of that 850mb low track.
 
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