Lol this time isn’t even a SER, it’s a west based southeast block ?
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Oh man. That's it. That's the post
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
I'll take this?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't think I've ever seen a winter where we've had the SER trend into nonexistence vs trend stronger in recent years.
@Justanotherweatherfan thats a good thing the SER is backing off
I've been taking a little break from posting on here (for personal reasons) but I've been watching from afar. But I am glad to see things coming back to work in our favor. At least for now. Let's keep this mojo up and hopefully reel ourselves- board wide- a decent winter storm!
Yeah sorry I misread that post
If this holds should be tracking a storm next week for arrival last week of Jan. Been lots of activity signals showing for last week of the month and hope the models can zero in on this more by mid next week.
NCSNOW
Member
Starting to get this into the D10 window And this looks mildly interesting, not a bad pattern for Cold air damming to pop up given the SE Canada vortex and the S/W handoffs From the west
Coast trough
Worth noting that CAD doesn’t normally appear until D 7-8 on ensembles
Coast trough
Worth noting that CAD doesn’t normally appear until D 7-8 on ensembles
Probably not since 2010-2011.
packfan98
Moderator
Lots of noise on the GEFS for the 1/27-1/28 timeframe.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Lol what the hell is going on in # 20.
Well, this is a start. Need colder air with this system though or it's going to be yet another MA & NE storm come game time.
Doncane
One thing I’m noticing is the significant retrogression of the pattern, as the pacific block heads <<<<<<, so does the trough with it and the ridge out ahead, I’m noticing the models want to slowly retrograde our ridge to the central Us and SW, and bring the trough in the Atlantic towards the EC
I'd be interested to see P6/7 500mb composites with similar enso and how they rolled forward.
ATLwxfan
Member
This is the worst run to run inconsistency I’ve ever seen. There is little to look at beyond D5. The trash heap of tossed model runs is growing exponentially.
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This is basically a canonical La Niña pattern, but a -NAO saving our asses, it’s almost headed back to what we just had in early January 
I think it’s a very wild pattern .. with large amounts of blocking like we are seeing it’s much harder to predict how certain pieces will interact with others because the atmosphere is doing wild things under those blocks.. add in some SSW and youre bound to have inconsistencies.. I do believe as soon as they get a handle on the pattern things should start seeming more accurate and less wild.. they just need some time to figure out what the hoot is going on
This euro run might do something 
Wow at the medium range changes 
I like this EURO (this run lol) look in the end of the short term range.
You have the sub-tropical trof digging east and se of HI...You have a massive ridge going up over AK and building to the pole. You have a -NAO that is DEF. WEST based.... The SE ridge is there (sorta) but will be squashed later. Big high pressure building that will drop into the US.
You have the sub-tropical trof digging east and se of HI...You have a massive ridge going up over AK and building to the pole. You have a -NAO that is DEF. WEST based.... The SE ridge is there (sorta) but will be squashed later. Big high pressure building that will drop into the US.
That dump out west screws the southern plains/western SE, don’t want it that strong out west 
Monster wedge at D9 on the euro but the pattern as a whole is suboptimal
I hope so, can't wait to see if the EPS supports it. Realistically even if it was legit that -nao would likely pay off for NC/TN not so much farther south
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SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Welp there goes the warm weather, we better get a storm out of this. You were all thinking it don't downvote me
Some big ones
Sharply I-40 based though.
SouthSideYankee
Member
Not our typical ridge. We can very well snow if our boundary sets up correctly.