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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Highest Euro mean yet! Assuming Eric is right, this will be an epic fail.
Looks like per H5 the ULL was a bit flatter/weaker, does that help ?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Whoa I didn't realize that the Euro printed out what would be a weenie run for Louisiana today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Needs to go a lot further south than that to put central nc legitimately in the game. Can’t deny the trend but you can’t deny how marginal this is and how the precip is being generated, mostly via warm advection. Can’t recall a single setup over the years where this wasn’t under forecast by NWP. Global models rarely if ever will properly handle it or are good to use as a gauge for the rain-snow line in these kinds of setups.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A little but the upper low (in raw heights not anoms) needs to track on the 20 corridor to put us in the driver seat.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Furthermore, if the timing is literally any different than it is now, the boundary layer will be warmer than shown because as it stands the heaviest precip comes late in the overnight and early morning on the 9th.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I may be wrong but aren’t the Euro and ICON the highest res models of the Global’s? Shouldn’t they pick up on these mesoscale features more so than others?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Can you take this crap to the whamby or banter thread? Thanks.
We’ve done well in marginal set ups this year as they usually preform a bit colder than we expect .. this one is marginal but it’s on the colder side I can see this being a boom bust scenario for sure .. I also can tell we’re going to be NAMD with this one and I’m trying to prepare
Additionally this really comes down to the synoptic scale track and I'd put more stock in the ensembles consistency at this range. If you actually look at the H5 vorticity field the euro has been pretty erratic the past few runs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically all global suck in showing precip type evolution where warm advection is the primary forcing for ascent and ensembles aren’t much better because they’re even coarser than the op. I’ll be enthused when I see a bit more cold air injection initially, CAMs getting in range to resolve the warm nose and the upper low tracking further south because it’ll temper the warm advection and give us more wiggle room to work with
Yeah, but we don't do well with warm noses, which as Eric has been alluding to, the track screams it. He's just setting us up so we don't get dissapointed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We have yet to perform well in a single marginal setup this year, the only accumulating snow we’ve seen east of the mountains in nc was on Xmas morning and that was not a marginal setup by any means wrt cold air
Looks like roughly 70% of the ensembles have some snow around here. I like that but we are in the tenuous period of agreement where we know there are some changes to come
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep lol just trying to temper expectations atm because experience in these setups says any snow and especially accumulation east of the mtns would be a win. Don’t get enthralled with model snow or p type maps esp this far out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
8-9 times out of ten when you got warm advection like this showing up on the models, it’s gonna bust warmer/less snow/further NW.
Well I hope this is that 1/2 times that it goes well lol.. valid concerns though I definitely would not want a warm nose pulling up like it has in recent years events .. at least it’s trend-able at this point .. many models to go before were close to a final solution
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Good thing is we're seeing the legit threat inside 10 days for once. Looks like anytime from next Friday into next week is a real possibility for some snow.