Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Chandler]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Definitely more low-level cold being wrapped in this run!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s some good agreement, almost makes it suspect ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 62118

“This is not a storm for outside of the mountains”

the euro again:

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

While it probably very well will be a MA storm it's very hard to ignore these trends IMO. We haven't trended like this for a storm in a long time

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

While it probably very well will be a MA storm it's very hard to ignore these trends IMO. We haven't trended like this for a storm in a long time

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Gonna be hard to go NW with the wall of blocking going on. Can’t ignore that.

 

[Webberweather53]

@Webberweather53 i see what your saying, kinda shocked how good this looks with a ULL in that position.... right ? View attachment 62115View attachment 62116

Good look for VA & DC-BAL with that upper low track. A little bit more warm advection in the mid-levels ahead of the upper low and a lot of the precip on the GFS/Euro goes to or stays rain.

 

[Webberweather53]

Almost got a storm on the following day from a trailing s/w.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm liking the looks of things, but keep in mind that in the "thread the needle" type setups, there's going to be a lot of volatility amongst the models. Don't expect things to stay that way. I'm going to remain skeptical until we get within 48 hours.

 

[Webberweather53]

Euro is verbatim showing snow east of the NC mountains but it's also accompanied by very strong low-mid level warm advection and deep-layer veering and that's virtually always under-modeled by globals esp at this range, which usually results in NW trends at the last second. Rates can overcome a lot but usually not warm advection like this

Area-averaged sounding for GSO-RDU at 12z:

Meh

 

[accu35]

 

[Storm5]

Euro is trying the 10th-12th

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[accu35]

Holy crap

 

[Storm5]

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[Cad Wedge NC]

Still lots of variation in the exact track of the upper low hence lower snow amts. Ultimately, it's gonna be a large event for someone, looking like the mountains of VA/WV is the place to be, maybe DC-BAL east of the mtns as it currently stands

Can't understand why you are telling us to punt this one, when the model support for a western NC snowstorm is increasing. I understand that the ULL track is not too favorable right now, but the trends are in favor of a more southern solution. Please explain to us non-mets why this one will not trend better during subsequent runs.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Dang, heavy snow breaking out over Louisiana.

 

[Ollie Williams]

 

[ajr]

Euro is verbatim showing snow east of the NC mountains but it's also accompanied by very strong low-mid level warm advection and deep-layer veering and that's virtually always under-modeled by globals esp at this range, which usually results in NW trends at the last second. Rates can overcome a lot but usually not warm advection like this

Area-averaged sounding for GSO-RDU at 12z:

Meh

View attachment 62127

Just for curiosity, are the datapoints you’re looking at here for WAA the warm “nose” and southerly flow at lower levels?

 

[deltadog03]

I think that’s the one that has the most potential to have more people on this board see wintry precipitation.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I think that’s the one that has the most potential to have more people on this board see wintry precipitation.

Also has more potential to cut than the day 4-5 threat.