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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Won’t last long with a -NAO tho, something is just gonna undercut it, the fact that the block was further north this run but stronger sucks for the medium range but is better for later 20EAA96A-621B-4164-9581-E6D280B5107C.png
 
Maybe a good fantasy storm to lift our spirits???
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sdm47 said:
All joking aside, the LR GFS shows exactly what we need - a big sprawling Arctic high to provide a continuous feed of dry air into the south. Just like @Rain Cold said yesterday, this significantly expands the window and opportunities for wintry precipitation across the southern U.S.

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Yep, verbatim if that happens we can call it a winter and move to summer.
 
Webb, I know you predicted this (SER) as an unwelcomed necessary event albeit short lived, in order to get the cold in later. Have we lost our 15th-22nd (or so) window now and have basically a one week opportunity ( ~23rd-~31st) to have the best players to score? Assuming Feb still up in the air.
 
CaryWx said:
Webb, I know you predicted this (SER) as an unwelcomed necessary event albeit short lived, in order to get the cold in later. Have we lost our 15th-22nd (or so) window now and have basically a one week opportunity ( ~23rd-~31st) to have the best players to score? Assuming Feb still up in the air.
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We'll have maybe 1-2 flizzard events to show for this period early on as a pair of upper lows traverse thru the eastern US prior to the appearance of a SER. Looks like a CAD event could appear near the end of the window ~Jan 24-25 but too early to speculate on much of anything wintry there atm, other than that, this window is almost lost at best.

A lot of the following week depends on how this NE Pacific wave break evolves, a dampened, suppressed NE Pac ridge and the SE ridge may not be as strong but we lose our feed of cold air from Siberia.

If the ridge is a little stronger and stays primarily over the NE Pacific, we have a better cold feed but the SE ridge may end up being stronger, and that would arguably be a worst case scenario and is one we currently see on the ensembles (at least we know it will change in some way from that)

What we really want here is a very amplified anticyclonic wave break that moves the center of the ridge into at least central-north Alaska or the Beaufort & Chukchi Seas instead of the NE Pacific, because that'll give us a better cold feed and likely dislodge pieces of the TPV that would potentially come towards the CONUS & south-central Canada, injecting extremely cold & deep arctic air masses into this pattern
 
KyloG said:
I feel like we have gone through this before...cold patterns int the day 10+ that never materialize. -NAO/-EPO look solid so you would think it eventually bleeds east.
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Yeah last 2 years and 2017, there was no hope then because how positive it was (NAO/AO), southeast ridge had all the room to become the southeast block, the -NAO hopefully isnt a headfake heading forward, would think it wouldn’t and it would be for real given the state of the strat PV but I could Be wrong
 
Sounding like winter (measurable snow chances in central NC) are slipping away? At least for January.
 
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