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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Here comes the cut-off anticyclone north of Alaska on the GEFS. When coupled w/ a strong -NAO I don't think we'll see much of SER & if there is one, it's going to be transient at best imo, unless the -NAO somehow disappears, which doesn't seem likely atm.

Some real cold air finally starting to get injected into the pattern by mid-month on the GEFS.

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Looking good.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're gonna have to take some chances to get legit cold injected into this pattern & give folks near & south of I-40 a real chance to snow. -NAO alone isn't gonna cut it as we're finding out in early Jan, but I doubt there would be much of a SE ridge if the -NAO also doesn't go away.
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I hope not but:

1. We now have sub -3 AO and +1 PNA along with -1 NAO. I’d take continuation of that combo anytime. The nasty SER has been so persistent the last few years that I’d rather not give it a chance by losing the +PNA.

2. I’m much deeper SE then you and thus am more vulnerable to control by the SER. For my area and nearby to have the best chance to stay with near or BN temps, the SER needs to stay away. I’m not even thinking about wintry precip here as that is quite rare. I’m just thinking about avoiding what had recently dominated here in winter until the wonderful Dec of 2020, AN temps. Just keep the +PNA and I’ll take my chances. But alas, that’s going to be tough to do.

3. I’m also keeping in mind that the models have quite often underestimated the SER in the medium range. Maybe a persistent -NAO would reduce that chance but I’d still rather just keep the strong +PNA.
 
I could see how this end up a bigger MA event than us in NC but you have to admit the trend has been our friend so we will have to see how much of that continues over the next couple days... also there’s just something about upper level lows man they are sneaky don’t count it out
 
GaWx said:
I hope not but:

1. We now have sub -3 AO and +1 PNA along with -1 NAO. I’d take continuation of that combo anytime. The nasty SER has been so persistent the last few years that I’d rather not give it a chance by losing the +PNA.

2. I’m much deeper SE then you and thus am more vulnerable to control by the SER. For my area and nearby to have the best chance to stay with near or BN temps, the SER needs to stay away. I’m not even thinking about wintry precip here as that is quite rare. I’m just thinking about avoiding what had recently dominated here in winter until the wonderful Dec of 2020, AN temps. Just keep the +PNA and I’ll take my chances. But alas, that’s going to be tough to do.

3. I’m also keeping in mind that the models have quite often underestimated the SER in the medium range. Maybe a persistent -NAO would reduce that chance but I’d still rather just keep the +PNA.
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With strong -NAO/AO remaining in place, good luck getting much of a SE ridge even if a giant -EPO goes up
 
GaWx said:
That’s IF the strong -AO and -NAO remain, a big if.

The good news is that the GEFS still maintains a decent +PNA. That’s what I want to see more than anything else:

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I actually don't think -NAO is a big IF here, arguably one of the more predictable features in the coming several weeks. When you have a strong -NAO that then couples to the stratosphere in the form of a sudden stratospheric warming event, that's the best recipe to get an extremely persistent and strong -NAO that lasts for weeks & weeks on end, very much like late Feb-Mar 2013, & late Jan-Feb 2010. Simon Lee's research has shown that even a 1 sigma below average polar vortex is 7x more likely to produce -NAO than "normal" conditions and we'll have a much weaker vortex than -1 sigma here so the odds are likely even more in our favor.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I actually don't think -NAO is a big IF here, arguably one of the more predictable features in the coming several weeks. When you have a strong -NAO that then couples to the stratosphere in the form of a sudden stratospheric warming event, that's the best recipe to get an extremely persistent and strong -NAO that lasts for weeks & weeks on end, very much like late Feb-Mar 2013, & late Jan-Feb 2010. Simon Lee's research has shown that even a 1 sigma below average polar vortex is 7x more likely to produce -NAO than "normal" conditions and we'll have a much weaker vortex than -1 sigma here so the odds are likely even more in our favor.
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Good point! I wasn’t thinking about the nice upcoming SSW. That indeed is encouraging to keep -AO/-NAO dominating.
 
GaWx said:
Good point! I wasn’t thinking about the nice upcoming SSW. That indeed is encouraging to keep -AO/-NAO dominating.
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Yeah there's no guarantee obviously but it's a great way to have the -NAO keep coming back again & again later in Jan & Feb as the circulation anomalies propagate into the troposphere. The SSW is a real game changer in that regard
 
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