Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Ollie Williams]

This look is pretty crazy even for the long range GFS.

Yeah, that Lobe over the NE and GL usually makes dreams come true.


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[Montanasnow30]

I wonder when the other parts of the south/southeast especially in the western areas is going to get their chance at something

 

[TheBatman]

@Brent will like 10-12 gefs. Looks good.
Not far enough out for us further east..

 

[Snowfan]

I wonder when the other parts of the south/southeast especially in the western areas is going to get their chance at something

Imo most likely second half of January.

 

[Stormdoc]

Nice post. Just wondering how much further SE we can get this to trend. Looks like the typical Climo Miller A with an RDU and SE cold rain special. Warm nose generally ruins it for us. Folks in the NW half of NC should be getting really excited about it though.

I agree with this, NW Piedmont definitely favored, but we have a shot. It is subtle, but the upper level low on the GFS makes a slight curve NE once it crosses the Carolinas. If we can get that to head just due east we will also be in business. We need just a little more NE confluence to get that done.

 

[Clem282340]

The GEFS looked awesome!
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Are there anyway you can zoom in closer on the last picture so you can see city’s

 

[Ollie Williams]

Are there anyway you can zoom in closer on the last picture so you can see city’s

Unfortunately no, but I’ll tell you what. When the GEFS is done running, I’ll use Python to try and do this for you.

 

[KyloG]

Nice post. Just wondering how much further SE we can get this to trend. Looks like the typical Climo Miller A with an RDU and SE cold rain special. Warm nose generally ruins it for us. Folks in the NW half of NC should be getting really excited about it though.

We are pushing how far south this can get...IMO. By day 2-3 the GEFS/EPS both agree that the upper low being just north of the panhandle. We have a stout block and 50/50 to push this south and by day 4-5 the GEFS/EPS are both in great agreement of the upper low over BMX. For Raleigh I would like this to exit between MYR ans SAV and right now it's between MYR and ILM. It's actually impressive how close the EPS/GEFS are now.

I am hoping this can drop down to just south of the panhandle, that would help the folks SE of I-40/85.

 

[Clem282340]

Unfortunately no, but I’ll tell you what. When the GEFS is done running, I’ll use Python to try and do this for you.

Thanks it’s hard to see the exact location where my city is located at

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We are pushing how far south this can get...IMO. By day 2-3 the GEFS/EPS both agree that the upper low being just north of the panhandle. We have a stout block and 50/50 to push this south and by day 4-5 the GEFS/EPS are both in great agreement of the upper low over BMX. For Raleigh I would like this to exit between MYR ans SAV and right now it's between MYR and ILM. It's actually impressive how close the EPS/GEFS are now.

I am hoping this can drop down to just south of the panhandle, that would help the folks SE of I-40/85.

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The face we’ve gotten this much done with the first wave on modeling is amazing

 

[Ollie Williams]

Thanks it’s hard to see the exact location where my city is located at

Actually, posting a meteogram of GSP at the end of the run may suit you and I better.

 

[Tarheel1]

Actually, posting a meteogram of GSP at the end of the run may suit you and I better.

Pain!
unless you live in TR or Pumpkin town, Caesars Head! ?

 

[Jessy89]

Pain!
unless you live in TR or Pumpkin town, Caesars Head!

Yep most likely highway 11 and north


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[TheBatman]

@Brent will like 10-12 gefs. Looks good.
Not far enough out for us further east..

Looks like suppression, little too warm, and even a few cutters for us further east..

 

[KyloG]

One of the CIP's analogs is 2/6/10. This is just a hair further south and 2/6/10 had marginal air mass like this potential...maybe worse.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like suppression, little too warm, and even a few cutters for us further east..

Sounds like classic variation for a overrunning event On the ensemble members

 

[BHS1975]

At KSAV, record high minimum of 67 yesterday: breaks old record high minimum of 66 from 2017:

RER from KCHS

But thankfully, much cooler on the way to near normal and I’ll be hopefully back at the park tonight enjoying it!

Must be the high SSTs


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[Webberweather53]

I am but alas I’m on Twitter mostly. If you weren’t on board originally than today’s trends should get about everyone on. Until it starts trending the opposite direction, it’s a valid threat IMO. Need some consistency, but the eps mean is screaming at us...

EPS mean is screaming at folks in the mid-atlantic imo. This looks like cold rain for much of NC outside the mtns with a few last second NW tweaks to the frontogenetically-induced band of snow in the wrap around CCB. Maybe we get some flurries but that would be a win in this setup

 

[KyloG]

EPS mean is screaming at folks in the mid-atlantic imo. This looks like cold rain for much of NC outside the mtns with a few last second NW tweaks to the frontogenetically-induced band of snow in the wrap around CCB. Maybe we get some flurries but that would be a win in this setup

Yeah, said this earlier, this is giving me flashbacks to Feb 2010. 2/6/10 analog for this potential but maybe further south. I do think 77 corridor in NC could see accumulating snowfall...north of I-40.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yeah, said this earlier, this is giving me flashbacks to Feb 2010. 2/6/10 analog for this potential but maybe further south. I do think 77 corridor in NC could see accumulating snowfall...north of I-40.

Well, the 12z UKMET does just about that.