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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

KyloG said:
One of the CIP's analogs is 2/6/10. This is just a hair further south and 2/6/10 had marginal air mass like this potential...maybe worse.

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I don’t know if you saw it above, but 2/7/10 was the last day there was a trifecta of a PNA of over +1, an NAO of sub -1, and an AO of sub-2. Today’s GEFS is projecting that to occur January 6-7+, which is about right on top of the progged upper low snow of January 7-8!
 
Storm5 said:
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Lol seems set in stone right?
 
KyloG said:
Yeah, said this earlier, this is giving me flashbacks to Feb 2010. 2/6/10 analog for this potential but maybe further south. I do think 77 corridor in NC could see accumulating snowfall...north of I-40.
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I could too.

The GEFS z500 mean has the upper low tracking from about Nashville-Richmond, a good look if you're in far northern VA, Maryland, southern PA, & perhaps DC-BAL. Don't see anything to get real excited about outside the mtns in NC, maybe a few wraparound snowflakes but that would probably be the extent of it imo

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This 1/9 threat looks to be destined for the mid-Atlantic imo unless we make some dramatic changes over the next day or two.

Pretty much expected evolution as I mentioned late last week:

Now let's just see if we can get the favorable window from Jan 15 & beyond.

Webberweather53 said:
Got a pretty good feeling that we’re gonna hand off the first storm or two in this pattern to the mid Atlantic. We could use a little snow cover to our north to help further lock in this great pattern. As we see a few storms run their course thru the first half of the month and lay some snow down to our north, the Greenland block begins to couple with the stratosphere, & continues retrograding poleward and westward, the air masses that plunge southward will become increasingly deeper/colder as we get into mid-January

Hence, I think the mid Atlantic and perhaps the mountains could score here inside the first 10-12 days of the January. Our window in the SE probably does not legitimately open up until about Jan 15 or so given the above info, but it should last for basically the rest of January at a minimum and given the SSWE, February is also looking favorable atm
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GaWx said:
And right on cue you can see the SER tries to resist it getting deep into the SE. Always a risk with that kind of setup, especially in La Niña with a very warm W PAC and a warm AMO.
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We're gonna have to take some chances to get legit cold injected into this pattern & give folks near & south of I-40 a real chance to snow. -NAO alone isn't gonna cut it as we're finding out in early Jan, but I doubt there would be much of a SE ridge if the -NAO also doesn't go away.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
But i mean even there only 2 or 3" ? Not exactly a huge snow event.
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Still lots of variation in the exact track of the upper low hence lower snow amts. Ultimately, it's gonna be a large event for someone, looking like the mountains of VA/WV is the place to be, maybe DC-BAL east of the mtns as it currently stands
 
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