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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

tramadoc said:
The first time my old man was stationed in NC we lived here for the March 1980 storm. The Virginian Pilot called it the Circus Blizzard because Ringling Brothers was at the Norfolk Scope Arena when it happened. I don’t think they have had one since then. We moved summer of 1980 and came back October of 1987. I know they haven’t had anything like since since 1987. So March 1980 was my once in a lifetime. Hopefully my kids (and all kids) can get one of these.
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Did Dec 1989 not get that far up the coast... I seem to remember Hatteras getting a big hit from it
 
ICON 12Z continued the trend of insanely cold temps behind the front's push on Friday the 12th. Also looks like the temps in the lower MS valley take a dive beginning Thursday afternoon, so may be coming in faster on this run.
 
At hour 156 this got to be ice
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_52.png
 
From Maxar this morning:
“The pattern over next two weeks is expected to be
among the coldest we’ve seen in a while, as rounds
of arctic air plunge into the US. The total of 538.74
GWHDDs forecast for the 1-15 Day period would be
the coldest 15-Day period since Dec 28-Jan 11, 2017-18 and the coldest solely in February since Feb 14-28, 2015. The map on right shows the upper air
pattern for the next two weeks, featuring strong ridging over the Arctic (-AO), North Atlantic (-NAO), and Pacific (-EPO/WPO), a blocking triumvirate supportive of cross-polar flow. Looking at analogs for this pattern via CPC for Day 8, eight of the ten analogs are centered around anomalously cold 6-10 Day periods, but only one (Jan 25-29, 1961 with 217.80 GWHDDs) exceeds our current 6-10 Day forecast of 206.18, perhaps suggesting a downside risk to our 6-10 Day GWHDD forecast based on similar historical patterns. Meanwhile, the arctic nature of the upcoming chill is illustrated by the backward trajectory maps on left. These maps via NOAA ARL are designed for dispersion of particles, but are also helpful in determining the origin of air masses. The Day 8 map shows that the air coming into Chicago and New York is of Arctic origins, although the more westerly trajectory into New York gives more opportunity for the air mass to moderate compared to Chicago. Meanwhile, Dallas may have more of a hybrid air mass in the middle of the 6-10 Day before becoming more directly Arctic at the end of the period. This may suggest that Day 10 could be colder than Day 8 in Dallas, despite our forecast and the models suggesting the contrary.”

And this:

“The 6-10 Day forecast totals 206.2
GWHDDs, which is significantly colder than normal (10-year is
140.3; 30-year is 142.3) and would rank record coldest for the
period back to 1950.”
—————————
My comments:

All GWHDD amounts are for the US weighted by population. So, for that measure, Maxar forecast for Feb 10-14th is record coldest for the US. The Midwest is the heart of the coldest anomalies rather than the SE thus allowing for the chance for a major winter storm in parts of the SE at the bottom of the extreme cold.
 
GaWx said:
From Maxar this morning:
“The pattern over next two weeks is expected to be
among the coldest we’ve seen in a while, as rounds
of arctic air plunge into the US. The total of 538.74
GWHDDs forecast for the 1-15 Day period would be
the coldest 15-Day period since Dec 28-Jan 11, 2017-18 and the coldest solely in February since Feb 14-28, 2015. The map on right shows the upper air
pattern for the next two weeks, featuring strong ridging over the Arctic (-AO), North Atlantic (-NAO), and Pacific (-EPO/WPO), a blocking triumvirate supportive of cross-polar flow. Looking at analogs for this pattern via CPC for Day 8, eight of the ten analogs are centered around anomalously cold 6-10 Day periods, but only one (Jan 25-29, 1961 with 217.80 GWHDDs) exceeds our current 6-10 Day forecast of 206.18, perhaps suggesting a downside risk to our 6-10 Day GWHDD forecast based on similar historical patterns. Meanwhile, the arctic nature of the upcoming chill is illustrated by the backward trajectory maps on left. These maps via NOAA ARL are designed for dispersion of particles, but are also helpful in determining the origin of air masses. The Day 8 map shows that the air coming into Chicago and New York is of Arctic origins, although the more westerly trajectory into New York gives more opportunity for the air mass to moderate compared to Chicago. Meanwhile, Dallas may have more of a hybrid air mass in the middle of the 6-10 Day before becoming more directly Arctic at the end of the period. This may suggest that Day 10 could be colder than Day 8 in Dallas, despite our forecast and the models suggesting the contrary.”

And this:

“The 6-10 Day forecast totals 206.2
GWHDDs, which is significantly colder than normal (10-year is
140.3; 30-year is 142.3) and would rank record coldest for the
period back to 1950.”
—————————
My comments:

All GWHDD amounts are for the US weighted by population. So, for that measure, Maxar forecast for Feb 10-14th is record coldest for the US. The Midwest is the heart of the coldest anomalies rather than the SE thus allowing for the chance for a major winter storm in parts of the SE at the bottom of the extreme cold.
Click to expand...
welcome back Larry
 
GaWx said:
From Maxar this morning:
“The pattern over next two weeks is expected to be
among the coldest we’ve seen in a while, as rounds
of arctic air plunge into the US. The total of 538.74
GWHDDs forecast for the 1-15 Day period would be
the coldest 15-Day period since Dec 28-Jan 11, 2017-18 and the coldest solely in February since Feb 14-28, 2015. The map on right shows the upper air
pattern for the next two weeks, featuring strong ridging over the Arctic (-AO), North Atlantic (-NAO), and Pacific (-EPO/WPO), a blocking triumvirate supportive of cross-polar flow. Looking at analogs for this pattern via CPC for Day 8, eight of the ten analogs are centered around anomalously cold 6-10 Day periods, but only one (Jan 25-29, 1961 with 217.80 GWHDDs) exceeds our current 6-10 Day forecast of 206.18, perhaps suggesting a downside risk to our 6-10 Day GWHDD forecast based on similar historical patterns. Meanwhile, the arctic nature of the upcoming chill is illustrated by the backward trajectory maps on left. These maps via NOAA ARL are designed for dispersion of particles, but are also helpful in determining the origin of air masses. The Day 8 map shows that the air coming into Chicago and New York is of Arctic origins, although the more westerly trajectory into New York gives more opportunity for the air mass to moderate compared to Chicago. Meanwhile, Dallas may have more of a hybrid air mass in the middle of the 6-10 Day before becoming more directly Arctic at the end of the period. This may suggest that Day 10 could be colder than Day 8 in Dallas, despite our forecast and the models suggesting the contrary.”

And this:

“The 6-10 Day forecast totals 206.2
GWHDDs, which is significantly colder than normal (10-year is
140.3; 30-year is 142.3) and would rank record coldest for the
period back to 1950.”
—————————
My comments:

All GWHDD amounts are for the US weighted by population. So, for that measure, Maxar forecast for Feb 10-14th is record coldest for the US. The Midwest is the heart of the coldest anomalies rather than the SE thus allowing for the chance for a major winter storm in parts of the SE at the bottom of the extreme cold.
Click to expand...
Thank you for posting this. I’ve started reading them, but wasn’t sure that it was allowed. The seem to really know their stuff
 
Chazwin said:
So one bad operational model trended to another bad operational model more than 6 days out.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't call anything a trend right now. Nothing is trending to anything. You all saw how quick we flipped back to a wintry scenario last night? That's how quickly things are switching back and forth. We might not know anything as far as trends until Monday or Tuesday.
 
To me we got to get past that Friday rain ice for some first. Whatever pops up behind that gives most a opportunity


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